It turned my whole year around to find my own answers to those
same questions -- I've learned I'm long biased so every chart looks
like its going up even the ones that are just the inverse of
whatever I'm looking at lol. I use Matt's $NAHL indicator and
add that COMPQ has to close > 0 three days in a row AND SPX has
to close > 200 DMA. That's my checklist. Until/unless that
happens, its the "bear market playbook" for me:
1) Look primarily for mean reversion trades instead of trend
following (like the systems do)
2) Take profits aggressively instead of letting things run
3) Keep a large cash position and stay hedged/market neutral
most of the time.
Also I chose 3 days in a row bc Matt has mentioned it can close
> 0 1-2 days in a row during a bear market, so 3 should be more
meaningful -- its also not a buy signal, just a mindset change for
me, the bull market playbook is basically the opposite of the
bear.
Would be really interesting to hear what strategies are working
for other others right now.
Posted by simple_million on 31st of Jul 2022 at 07:41 pm
How does the table on Chart 5 get updated? Is it an excel table
that gets updated EOD? I like the format and was thinking it would
be nice to monitor during the day
Posted by simple_million on 27th of Jul 2022 at 07:10 pm
I think the idea is when Powell pivoted to 75bps and hawkish
rhetoric, he gained "credibility" and the market no longer feared
the 1970's-style situation you described, so it ripped higher.
THEN he could pivot dovish (lol) like today, with the market
ripping even higher. It makes sense if you think (as Powell
does) that easing supply chains, commodity prices topping, end of
war in Ukraine and a garden variety recession are enough to stamp
out enough inflation to at least take the hyperinflation narrative
off the table for now. Some inflation can stick around
without causing too much harm.
My own 2 cents, inflation is not as easy to predict or
understand as the Fintwit echo chamber would have you believe.
The actual depth of the recession we're getting into, whether
the US consumer can pay for things like food and housing going
forward, and whether inflation starts and stops regardless of what
the Fed does -- no one knows that stuff right now, the data has to
reveal that over time.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Awesome, thanks!
Monday's Newsletter Aug 29th
Posted by simple_million on 29th of Aug 2022 at 11:47 pm
Awesome, thanks!
Matt do you have a
Monday's Newsletter Aug 29th
Posted by simple_million on 29th of Aug 2022 at 10:20 pm
Matt do you have a link to this chart from yesterday, slide 21? I really like it for keeping the bigger picture in mind
I didn't listen, did he
Risk assets are starting to realize that the FED has ...
Posted by simple_million on 26th of Aug 2022 at 11:58 am
I didn't listen, did he say anything new?
Any TICK pivots kicking in,
IWM symmetry
Posted by simple_million on 26th of Aug 2022 at 11:38 am
Any TICK pivots kicking in, maybe a little oversold here short term?
Maybe something like this
$MARA gap to gap would take it to $15+ before...
Posted by simple_million on 25th of Aug 2022 at 03:27 pm
Maybe something like this
$MARA gap to gap would
Posted by simple_million on 25th of Aug 2022 at 01:19 pm
$MARA gap to gap would take it to $15+ before...
Already -10% since they pre
NVDA lower and bounce
Posted by simple_million on 24th of Aug 2022 at 04:29 pm
Already -10% since they pre released a few weeks ago, I figured they're setting it up for a spike
Some interesting bungees, music and
Posted by simple_million on 23rd of Aug 2022 at 10:19 pm
Some interesting bungees, music and donuts $SONO $DNUT
Kinda simple :)
MattCan you please share a KISS chart on XBI and ...
Posted by simple_million on 23rd of Aug 2022 at 03:45 pm
Kinda simple :)
Best of luck with your
Weekend Newsletter
Posted by simple_million on 21st of Aug 2022 at 04:32 pm
Best of luck with your mom, Steve
$NAHL symmetry move and nearing
Posted by simple_million on 4th of Aug 2022 at 12:10 pm
$NAHL symmetry move and nearing 13 EMA cross... not sure what to make of it -- a multi-year bottom is in, with months of chop first?
Holding on short SPX as
Posted by simple_million on 2nd of Aug 2022 at 04:10 pm
Holding on short SPX as long as this holds
Totally agree, China's setting up
Pelosi landing = short covering?https://zh.flightaware.com/live/flight/SPAR19?fbclid=IwAR0yxaWRynX-68ztkR-zAIqJE9IJ_cozSpIxM-JxmNECI4VX7OYl4RAdusI
Posted by simple_million on 2nd of Aug 2022 at 10:23 am
Totally agree, China's setting up a moonshot
It turned my whole year
Matt & Steve. What is your bear market to bull ...
Posted by simple_million on 1st of Aug 2022 at 04:57 pm
It turned my whole year around to find my own answers to those same questions -- I've learned I'm long biased so every chart looks like its going up even the ones that are just the inverse of whatever I'm looking at lol. I use Matt's $NAHL indicator and add that COMPQ has to close > 0 three days in a row AND SPX has to close > 200 DMA. That's my checklist. Until/unless that happens, its the "bear market playbook" for me:
1) Look primarily for mean reversion trades instead of trend following (like the systems do)
2) Take profits aggressively instead of letting things run
3) Keep a large cash position and stay hedged/market neutral most of the time.
Also I chose 3 days in a row bc Matt has mentioned it can close > 0 1-2 days in a row during a bear market, so 3 should be more meaningful -- its also not a buy signal, just a mindset change for me, the bull market playbook is basically the opposite of the bear.
Would be really interesting to hear what strategies are working for other others right now.
Kyle Bass on cnbc ftw
Posted by simple_million on 1st of Aug 2022 at 03:13 pm
Kyle Bass on cnbc ftw
How does the table on
Weekend Newsletter for July 31st, 2022
Posted by simple_million on 31st of Jul 2022 at 07:41 pm
How does the table on Chart 5 get updated? Is it an excel table that gets updated EOD? I like the format and was thinking it would be nice to monitor during the day
I'm surprised there wasn't any
Chinese Shorts Updated
Posted by simple_million on 29th of Jul 2022 at 11:32 am
I'm surprised there wasn't any positive PR from the Xi meeting... maybe like with WHO its just dumping to set up a more favorable meeting later on.
The ratio underperforming is bad
Posted by simple_million on 27th of Jul 2022 at 08:16 pm
The ratio underperforming is bad for XLE? Earnings coming up
I think the idea is
SPX QQQ There's a question nobody can answer for me ...
Posted by simple_million on 27th of Jul 2022 at 07:10 pm
I think the idea is when Powell pivoted to 75bps and hawkish rhetoric, he gained "credibility" and the market no longer feared the 1970's-style situation you described, so it ripped higher. THEN he could pivot dovish (lol) like today, with the market ripping even higher. It makes sense if you think (as Powell does) that easing supply chains, commodity prices topping, end of war in Ukraine and a garden variety recession are enough to stamp out enough inflation to at least take the hyperinflation narrative off the table for now. Some inflation can stick around without causing too much harm.
My own 2 cents, inflation is not as easy to predict or understand as the Fintwit echo chamber would have you believe. The actual depth of the recession we're getting into, whether the US consumer can pay for things like food and housing going forward, and whether inflation starts and stops regardless of what the Fed does -- no one knows that stuff right now, the data has to reveal that over time.
This kinda looks bearish? Not
UNH - doesn't seem like a good day to be ...
Posted by simple_million on 27th of Jul 2022 at 12:05 pm
This kinda looks bearish? Not sure