Matt & Steve. What is

    Posted by jonesy85 on 1st of Aug 2022 at 02:51 pm

    Matt & Steve. What is your bear market to bull market checklist?  What have you learned from other cycles in the past to give you confidence to identify the key trends or reversals?  What would it take for you to ultimately to become more bullish or see a new bull market?  Any insights would be appreciated.  Thanks so much for the great updates 

    It turned my whole year

    Posted by simple_million on 1st of Aug 2022 at 04:57 pm

    It turned my whole year around to find my own answers to those same questions -- I've learned I'm long biased so every chart looks like its going up even the ones that are just the inverse of whatever I'm looking at lol.  I use Matt's $NAHL indicator and add that COMPQ has to close > 0 three days in a row AND SPX has to close > 200 DMA. That's my checklist. Until/unless that happens, its the "bear market playbook" for me:

    1) Look primarily for mean reversion trades instead of trend following (like the  systems do)

    2) Take profits aggressively instead of letting things run

    3) Keep a large cash position and stay hedged/market neutral most of the time.

    Also I chose 3 days in a row bc Matt has mentioned it can close > 0 1-2 days in a row during a bear market, so 3 should be more meaningful -- its also not a buy signal, just a mindset change for me, the bull market playbook is basically the opposite of the bear. 

    Would be really interesting to hear what strategies are working for other others right now. 


    You can start by listening

    Posted by steve on 1st of Aug 2022 at 03:00 pm

    You can start by listening to the post I made last night where some of those items are discussed  -  for example when SPX to GDP ratio isn't at 180 percent (and in the midst of a recession to boot) aasxwell as the FED in a tightening mode.  It's amazing to me that some have already forgot about those facts and that inflation is FAR from being at the 2% stated goal.  BUCKLE UP THIS FALL because it's likely to be quite dicey.

    https://youtu.be/m-scbvT8Jpg

    Very Interesting ... the similarities

    Posted by iaranger on 1st of Aug 2022 at 03:56 pm

    Very Interesting ... the similarities 50% Fib

    Yes hopefully everyone took time

    Posted by steve on 1st of Aug 2022 at 07:03 pm

    Yes hopefully everyone took time to review that video showing previous bear market retracements tended to assimilate around 50 percent.  If not, take time to review tonight.

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