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SPWR also looking good -

Posted by rjdst on 10th of Jun 2021 at 04:52 pm

SPWR also looking good - break out on heavy volume after declining all year.  I like when an entire sector is moving in concert.  Doesn't mean the rising tide lifts all boats, but the probabilities are higher.  

ENPH - solar/semiconductor stock.  Nice

Posted by rjdst on 10th of Jun 2021 at 04:32 pm

ENPH - solar/semiconductor stock.  Nice C&H, up against upper trendline.  MAs pinching.

LODE - nice inverse H&S

Posted by rjdst on 9th of Jun 2021 at 12:00 pm

LODE - nice inverse H&S pattern w/ intersting MACD trend.  H&S measures to $5.45 which would be a 25% gain.  Currently oversold on the 30 min with some neg MACD divergence, so watching for a good entry around the 9 or 50 MA.  Can make some big moves, so I stick with smaller position sizes.

EPM - posted this one

Posted by rjdst on 9th of Jun 2021 at 11:52 am

EPM - posted this one a week ago, keeps on climbing.  Took some profits at 20% this morning as I thought it might pull back a little near that previous high, but it blew right through it.  Dividend pays out on the 15th, so that may be propelling it higher for now.  Still like the pattern longer-term, so will look to add on a p/b.

Seeing quite a few coil patterns behaving like this.  If there's a major MA line below the coil, that seems to act like a magnet, then reverse & rally.  I use smaller positions and wider stops if I think it's going to play out that way, then add once it's back in/above the coil (preferably w/ volume).

SM - oil & gas

Posted by rjdst on 8th of Jun 2021 at 03:58 pm

SM - oil & gas stock.  Nice pop out of the coil, pulled back into what looks like a bull flag.  Added some to my energy portfolio.

Thanks, Matt.  I picked up

AMC etc

Posted by rjdst on 2nd of Jun 2021 at 04:07 pm

Thanks, Matt.  I picked up a little just prior to posting.  

MVIS is another to keep an eye on; I posted that one along with KOSS last week.  I have small positions.  Not enough to do harm, just enough to make it interesting.

EPM - energy stock with

Posted by rjdst on 2nd of Jun 2021 at 03:30 pm

EPM - energy stock with C&H that hasn't popped yet; nice volume the past two days.  The others I posted last week - HLX, WTI are already rockin'.

NAKD may be next....

AMC etc

Posted by rjdst on 2nd of Jun 2021 at 03:24 pm

NAKD may be next....

SOS - similar pattern as

NICE on CAN

Posted by rjdst on 1st of Jun 2021 at 02:36 pm

SOS - similar pattern as CAN, but hasn't yet popped (as much).   Assuming it clears Thursday's high, it could pop like CAN did.

FSM - silver miner, medium

Posted by rjdst on 1st of Jun 2021 at 09:48 am

FSM - silver miner, medium beta stock.  Breaking above downtrend line from February as well as the 200MA.  9 is crossing up over 50 and MA ribbons pinched.  

Agreed.  I also wonder if

Bitcoin continues to play out

Posted by rjdst on 30th of May 2021 at 03:32 pm

Agreed.  I also wonder if the adherence to TA concepts is because crypto is more of a pure market, actual price discovery without the manipulation/Fed interfernece that affects so many other stocks.  

WTI - another energy stock.

Posted by rjdst on 28th of May 2021 at 09:47 am

WTI - another energy stock.  Just coming off support of the lower channel TL with lots of support below for a low risk entry.  Lower beta than the HLX I posted yesterday.  Energy sector in general seems to be gaining strength.

Off-topic, but related to ULTA... funny and uplifting.  Some folks in this video could have used some ULTA.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gxm7Hu-IHJs


I wish I had something definitive to share, but there are so many variables - positions size, entry point relative to support, relative market strength (i.e., likelihood of bouncing back), what the rest of the portfolio is doing.  I have two positions - a  large one in my IRA; a smaller one in my trading account.  I don't watch the IRA.  I'll check on it if the overall market starts to show a strong downtrend.  For that, following the 401k systems here is a good catalyst to think about moving in/out.  

For the trading account, it's more dynamic and I think that's what you're asking about.  If something isn't contributing to profit, it gets fired.  So the guidance that Matt & Steve offer works - identify support and resistance.  I ask myself how much I'm willing to lose if my thesis proves invalid.  If the next support (a major trendline, 50MA., 200 MA) is below that, I either reduce position size or don't purchase and move on to something else.  9MA is a bit tight for me for a low-beta, slow mover.  But that's me.

I think one of the biggest challenges that many traders face is the desire to make gains quickly, not  so much to create wealth but to experience validation.  The main reason people day/swing trade is because they think they can outperform the buy & hold strategy.  Positions are larger than they should be to prove the point, and it becomes tempting, if not necessary, to exit prematurely.  I've suffered through that, and still occasionally do.  Meme stocks don't help as they create unrealistic expectations.  Who wants to settle for 10% a year when you can make 48% on Wednesday....?  Only one of those is sustainable....

When I sacrificed my ego to the concept of slow, steady wealth-building, I started performing much better.  I was more objective and I started to show control over outcomes.  And I began sleeping better.  :-)  

If I were to give advice to my earlier self, it would be to set a very reasonable goal relative to my account size.  Say, $500/month.  For a year.  When I can do that consistently, I'll have earned the right to aim for $750/mo, then $1K/mo, then a little more.  If the first goal seems a little underwhelming, you have selected it wisely.  ;-)

The holy grail for a trader isn't yolo gains; it's trading behavior that consistently returns predicted outcomes and repeatable gains (says me to my earlier self!).  

If you're looking for low-beta performers, check out DHR.  It's a GE-like company.  I missed the recent break-out, but picked some up on the retest with a stop just below the 50MA.  The past several months were more volatile than normal as it consolidated, but historically it's a wealth-building snoozer.  

PG - it doesn't look like a great C&H to me.  That handle is pretty messy.  Also, volume should be low/declining on the way to the bottom of the cup and increase as price climbs.   I see a bearish rising wedge with negative divergence on MACD and RSI.  And that is one ugly candle today, with volume.  

On the flip side, it does share a slight similarity to the pattern that played out last Mar - Jun before starting a strong run up.   That said, everything was rocketing higher last spring and the current environment is much different.  If it were me (relatively conservative), I'd be looking for a stronger setup.  

You're welcome.  Not a sexy stock, but a good core holding.  Chart-friendly and easy to hold a large position w/o having to babysit it.  Now, if we could just get the dividend back...

HLX - energy stock with

Posted by rjdst on 27th of May 2021 at 03:02 pm

HLX - energy stock with a nice inverse H&S pattern.  Currently at $5.16; pattern target would be $6.50.  A little oversold on the intra-day, so monitoring for a good entry.    

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