Yep. Hit stops on most of my energy/oil stocks; quite a
run for many of them. Not replacing with anything, still
holding a few names including ENPH, FLUX, GOOGL, TSLA. Some
PMs with hedges in place.
Will see how things play out over next few days. Summer
vaca is coming up shortly, so taking profits and going all cash may
be a good plan for maximizing relaxation.
DHR chart looking interesting after that bear trap move.
Mentioned to someone earlier as low-beta one that doesn't
need babysitting.
CVX. Similar to XOM cup & handle, but hasn't broken
out yet. Took a 1/2 position near close. Think it might
pullback a little before pushing over resistance. Will add on
p/b or bo. Also a nice dividend stock if holding
longer-term.
Oil is the new gold, so it seems. Trimmed my PMs a lot
over the past two weeks. Signs of inflation - and actual
inflation - all around, and /si and /gc just dribble and grind.
ERX - 4hr chart. Retesting after consolidating and
breaking out. Picking some up here, low risk entry with stop
just below horizontal support. Wish I had grabbed it
yesterday when it tagged the TL. It is a 2x so positions size
is key.
Oil / energy continuing the run. Taking some profits but
maintaining core positions. Added a couple of names today and
monitoring others for good entries.
CDEV had a nice pop today after yesterday's pullback.
Could be setting up a double-top on the 15min so will trim a
little and monitor.
OIS and BPT are mooning. Is the /wsb gang getting into
commodities now...?
SM update - posted this last week as potential bull flag.
I was getting ready to cut it loose yesterday but went back
and looked at some of the typical/longer consolidation periods
after previous pops, and 2 weeks is not uncommon. Got in a
little early - wish I had done that analysis before buying.
Now to see if it clears the upper TL.
Added OIS yesterday on the pullback to the 9EMA (mentioned in an
earlier post).
Added some XOM pre-market - c&h. Also, rumblings
about them increasing their already nice dividend
BPT making a move out of the handle. Posted this over the
weekend. Up 9% since then and not looking frothh. Nice
to have a stock that's not gapping, popping, plunging and
rebounding.
BPT - I fat-finggered a ticker symbol that arun posted and typed
in BPT (instead of BHP). How can you go wrong with a BPT
trade? :-D
Interestingly, a very well-developed C&H formation as it
emerges from a multi-year downtrend and large basing pattern.
As it fits with my thesis that energy/oil will continue to be
productive trades, I may add this to my portfolio. Low-volume
stock, will keep position size small if I buy.
With regards to this post and the earlier one by someone else
about this market being difficult to trade.... Energy and oil
have been reliable trades in an otherwise choppy market this year.
For people not programmed to buy support, quickly take
profits or that are inclined to chase, trading individual stocks in
this market is super difficult/risky. If there's no plan in
place, just following the crowd, then disaster looms.
One thing that I really appreciate about oil/energy stocks is
that they are chart-friendly and don't appear to be manipulated
like PMs and other equities. When I sort my 100+ trades this
year by winning/losing %, it's no coincidence that most of my big
winners have been energy stocks. They've been trending, with
occasional consolidations that provide good entries.
I'm currently 25% invested, 75% cash. Of the 25%, it
breaks down to approximately 50% energy, 30% metals/miners, and 19%
value/tech stocks, 1% meme stocks. Around 80% of my profits
are from my energy trades. Slow & steady wins the race.
They've had quite a run since the big dump last year, but as
inflation continues to ramp, I agree that they're likely to
continue providing rewarding trades.
WTI, OIH, EPM, EQX, SM, CDEV, PTEN, UNG, UUUU, UEC. Some
of these have had strong runs and need to consolidate, but there
are still some decent setups as I posted last week. Currently
monitoring OIS, HLX, XLE, LPI.
Been trading for 15+ years. Your proposal is very
similar to my plan. I have about 15% of my cash invested
right now. I hate non-trending, choppy markets. That's
where the vast majority of losses occur. If I didn't have a
lot of time on my hands for research and managing positions, I'd
either be all cash or putting a modest % in some value stocks and
check on them occasionally.
Not much into narratives, but good for context... I've been
looking for a place in Colorado. Went out there last week to
look around. Visited with a half dozen medium to large-scale
home-builders. Same story with each one... their current
developments are sold out and they don't have new ones ready to go.
It typically takes years to sell all the homes in a large
development, so they have time to tee up their next location.
Some were looking at start dates 18 months out, some had
nothing new tee'd up at all. Years of revenue have been
condensed into a very short time frame and it sounds like the next
12-18 months could be pretty lean for them.
UEC - uranium stock, breaking out of its multi-month coil.
MACD and stochastics are in no-man's land, so I eased
in with a half position shortly after the open.
Energy stocks... have been the energizer bunny of my portfolio
for a month or so and I'm still finding good setups. I don't
get into narratives, but summer season plus opening back up may be
fuel for the continued fire...
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
SPWR update - boom. Pulled
SPWR also looking good - break out on heavy volume ...
Posted by rjdst on 17th of Jun 2021 at 02:43 pm
SPWR update - boom. Pulled back after the heavy volume BO last week, now looks poised for a bigger move. MAs all bunched together.
Yep. Hit stops on most
Traders snapping up tech like we just had a generational ...
Posted by rjdst on 17th of Jun 2021 at 11:46 am
Yep. Hit stops on most of my energy/oil stocks; quite a run for many of them. Not replacing with anything, still holding a few names including ENPH, FLUX, GOOGL, TSLA. Some PMs with hedges in place.
Will see how things play out over next few days. Summer vaca is coming up shortly, so taking profits and going all cash may be a good plan for maximizing relaxation.
DHR chart looking interesting after that bear trap move. Mentioned to someone earlier as low-beta one that doesn't need babysitting.
No fear... precedes the bear...
there's absolutely no fear in this market ...
Posted by rjdst on 17th of Jun 2021 at 10:37 am
No fear... precedes the bear... :-)
Uranium has had a nice
nice pop on DNN
Posted by rjdst on 16th of Jun 2021 at 07:21 pm
Uranium has had a nice recovery all around following Monday's puke. UEC climbed back into it's coil.
Great newsletter, Steve. Quite a
Posted by rjdst on 15th of Jun 2021 at 08:58 pm
Great newsletter, Steve. Quite a few educational gems in there, even for the more experienced traders. Learning never ends at BPT....
CVX. Similar to XOM cup
Posted by rjdst on 15th of Jun 2021 at 04:04 pm
CVX. Similar to XOM cup & handle, but hasn't broken out yet. Took a 1/2 position near close. Think it might pullback a little before pushing over resistance. Will add on p/b or bo. Also a nice dividend stock if holding longer-term.
Oil is the new gold,
Oil is unstoppable ....
Posted by rjdst on 15th of Jun 2021 at 03:28 pm
Oil is the new gold, so it seems. Trimmed my PMs a lot over the past two weeks. Signs of inflation - and actual inflation - all around, and /si and /gc just dribble and grind.
ERX - 4hr chart. Retesting
Posted by rjdst on 15th of Jun 2021 at 03:16 pm
ERX - 4hr chart. Retesting after consolidating and breaking out. Picking some up here, low risk entry with stop just below horizontal support. Wish I had grabbed it yesterday when it tagged the TL. It is a 2x so positions size is key.
Oil / energy continuing the
Posted by rjdst on 15th of Jun 2021 at 02:56 pm
Oil / energy continuing the run. Taking some profits but maintaining core positions. Added a couple of names today and monitoring others for good entries.
CDEV had a nice pop today after yesterday's pullback. Could be setting up a double-top on the 15min so will trim a little and monitor.
OIS and BPT are mooning. Is the /wsb gang getting into commodities now...?
SM update - posted this
Posted by rjdst on 15th of Jun 2021 at 10:11 am
SM update - posted this last week as potential bull flag. I was getting ready to cut it loose yesterday but went back and looked at some of the typical/longer consolidation periods after previous pops, and 2 weeks is not uncommon. Got in a little early - wish I had done that analysis before buying. Now to see if it clears the upper TL.
Added OIS yesterday on the pullback to the 9EMA (mentioned in an earlier post).
Added some XOM pre-market - c&h. Also, rumblings about them increasing their already nice dividend
BPT making a move out
Posted by rjdst on 15th of Jun 2021 at 09:55 am
BPT making a move out of the handle. Posted this over the weekend. Up 9% since then and not looking frothh. Nice to have a stock that's not gapping, popping, plunging and rebounding.
RESN continues risn. Great
Posted by rjdst on 14th of Jun 2021 at 11:49 am
RESN continues risn. Great setup and trade. Structured pullbacks, volume, MACD recycling on the 1hr.
BPT - I fat-finggered a
Posted by rjdst on 13th of Jun 2021 at 03:05 pm
BPT - I fat-finggered a ticker symbol that arun posted and typed in BPT (instead of BHP). How can you go wrong with a BPT trade? :-D
Interestingly, a very well-developed C&H formation as it emerges from a multi-year downtrend and large basing pattern. As it fits with my thesis that energy/oil will continue to be productive trades, I may add this to my portfolio. Low-volume stock, will keep position size small if I buy.
With regards to this post
WTIC Oil Breaking out of this beautiful {Triangle} formation. Notice ...
Posted by rjdst on 13th of Jun 2021 at 12:12 pm
With regards to this post and the earlier one by someone else about this market being difficult to trade.... Energy and oil have been reliable trades in an otherwise choppy market this year. For people not programmed to buy support, quickly take profits or that are inclined to chase, trading individual stocks in this market is super difficult/risky. If there's no plan in place, just following the crowd, then disaster looms.
One thing that I really appreciate about oil/energy stocks is that they are chart-friendly and don't appear to be manipulated like PMs and other equities. When I sort my 100+ trades this year by winning/losing %, it's no coincidence that most of my big winners have been energy stocks. They've been trending, with occasional consolidations that provide good entries.
I'm currently 25% invested, 75% cash. Of the 25%, it breaks down to approximately 50% energy, 30% metals/miners, and 19% value/tech stocks, 1% meme stocks. Around 80% of my profits are from my energy trades. Slow & steady wins the race. They've had quite a run since the big dump last year, but as inflation continues to ramp, I agree that they're likely to continue providing rewarding trades.
WTI, OIH, EPM, EQX, SM, CDEV, PTEN, UNG, UUUU, UEC. Some of these have had strong runs and need to consolidate, but there are still some decent setups as I posted last week. Currently monitoring OIS, HLX, XLE, LPI.
Been trading for 15+ years.
This market is too difficult for me. Maybe time to ...
Posted by rjdst on 11th of Jun 2021 at 03:59 pm
Been trading for 15+ years. Your proposal is very similar to my plan. I have about 15% of my cash invested right now. I hate non-trending, choppy markets. That's where the vast majority of losses occur. If I didn't have a lot of time on my hands for research and managing positions, I'd either be all cash or putting a modest % in some value stocks and check on them occasionally.
Not much into narratives, but
ITB ...
Posted by rjdst on 11th of Jun 2021 at 12:19 pm
Not much into narratives, but good for context... I've been looking for a place in Colorado. Went out there last week to look around. Visited with a half dozen medium to large-scale home-builders. Same story with each one... their current developments are sold out and they don't have new ones ready to go.
It typically takes years to sell all the homes in a large development, so they have time to tee up their next location. Some were looking at start dates 18 months out, some had nothing new tee'd up at all. Years of revenue have been condensed into a very short time frame and it sounds like the next 12-18 months could be pretty lean for them.
UEC - uranium stock, breaking
Posted by rjdst on 11th of Jun 2021 at 11:28 am
UEC - uranium stock, breaking out of its multi-month coil. MACD and stochastics are in no-man's land, so I eased in with a half position shortly after the open.
Energy stocks... have been the
Posted by rjdst on 11th of Jun 2021 at 10:55 am
Energy stocks... have been the energizer bunny of my portfolio for a month or so and I'm still finding good setups. I don't get into narratives, but summer season plus opening back up may be fuel for the continued fire...
SPWR also looking ready to
ENPH red to green move
Posted by rjdst on 11th of Jun 2021 at 10:34 am
SPWR also looking ready to make the red to green shift. Picked up some of both on the red candle shortly after open.
FLUX - last one, then
Posted by rjdst on 10th of Jun 2021 at 05:03 pm
FLUX - last one, then I'll stop spamming the board. :-)
Nice, well-defined inverse H&S with pattern target of $15.50, roughly a 50% gain. Pulled back today and stpped at 20MA/middle BB.