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Having an EV as one's

you knew this was coming

Posted by rjdst on 19th of Aug 2022 at 03:56 pm

Having an EV as one's only car could certainly be a challenge, depending on where you live, where you work, how much you drive, charging infrastructure, etc.  Having an EV in addition to a gas-powered vehicle is pretty sweet.  For the majority of the population, recharging at home at night isn't an issue.  

Regarding the grid, this is where I work.  The main issue is peak demand.  There's a lot of available capacity, but not during hours of peak consumption.  And no utility wants to invest capital in adding capacity when it's only needed for a small fraction of the day.  Load shifting and increasing storage capacity can help solve this issue.  

Matt & Steve talk about how the next bull market will be led by companies/industries different from those that led this bull market.  I agree, and there's a very good chance that green energy, energy efficiency, decarbonization will be part of those leading segments.  Massive investment already taking place.  

Sounds more like the manufacturers

you knew this was coming

Posted by rjdst on 19th of Aug 2022 at 01:19 pm

Sounds more like the manufacturers screwing things up for themselves.  People looking to purchase EVs will lean towards the mfgs that didn't jack up their prices to grab the incentives, or at least don't do it that blatantly.  I do a lot of work with utilities and market incentive programs.  They can be valuable tools for moving markets in a particular direction.  The market will give priority to the vendors that give them the most bang for the buck.  Ford and GM just created headwinds for themselves.  But they've been so far behind in the EV movement, I'm not surprised that they continue to have confused strategies.

Row 29 of the table

The Bear Long has ruled them all

Posted by rjdst on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:27 pm

Row 29 of the table shows the open trade.

I don't trade the systems, but I do use them as a reliable barometer.  When the systems are long (e.g., the current bear long), I trade long; when the systems are short, I trade short.  With a day job, I realized a while back that anything that's counter to where the systems are pointing has to be a smash 'n grab burglary - in and out quickly, otherwise profits often turn to losses rapidly.  

Short squeeze on VERU, also.  Up 45% currently.

Reversion trade for NVTA (posted  yesterday) is working out very well this mornnng.  Down almost 50% currently.

NVTA, up 175% today.  Daily

Posted by rjdst on 10th of Aug 2022 at 03:26 pm

NVTA, up 175% today.  Daily and 15min charts.  Possible reversion to mean trade.

Taking a starter position in

Posted by rjdst on 23rd of Jun 2022 at 10:37 am

Taking a starter position in miners - SILJ, GDXJ and few individual stocks.  Sitting at support; stops a little below mid-May lows.

Well said on that last part.  I've found that when talking to people face to face, our actual differences are orders of magnitude smaller than the perceived  and manufactured differences that are cartoonishly amplified by media.  And we talk about them in ways that are orders of magnitude more constructive than the talking heads on TV, Twitter, etc.

Definitely hitting first-time buyers hard;

Charlie Bilello

Posted by rjdst on 21st of Jun 2022 at 02:40 pm

Definitely hitting first-time buyers hard; less so for other market segments where more equity comes into play.  Rates still impact, but less so.  The market for more expensive homes in the northwest is still very hot, though there are signs of cooling.  Not uncommon for nicer homes ($800K - $1.2M) to sell for 15-20% over asking, all cash.

Decent article on CNBC:

"Supply is leanest on the lower end of the market, which is likely why activity there continues to be weaker than on the higher end. Sales of homes priced between $100,000 and $250,000 dropped 27% from a year ago. Sales of homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million were up 26%. Sales of homes priced above $1 million surged 22% year over year.

Homes are selling quickly, however. Houses stayed on the market an average of just 16 days, the lowest on record for the Realtors. All-cash sales were still elevated at 25% of all sales. Investors made up 16% of all transactions, down slightly from April and from a year ago.

First-time buyers made up just 27% of all transactions, down from 31% a year ago. Affordability is clearly hitting them hardest, as rents are rising as well."

A lot of interesting angles to all of this; too many for a blog post.  But real demand destruction is likely lower as many of those households already have a house and mortgage.   6% is obviously high in recent context, but historically not so much.  It will be interesting to see how the market adjusts.  My realtor was saying folks are starting to downsize expectations - they're still committed to getting a house, but going down in price range to make it work.  Too early to tell if that's a reaction or a trend.

Best thing to do near-term would be to immediately roll back the previous administration's cap on mortgage interest deductions and state/local tax deductions.  It may be the only opportunity for relief as rates aren't coming down any time soon.  Either way, I won't be voting for JPOW for President; the Fed totally fell asleep at the wheel.  

They're talking about the treatment, Paxlovid, which was in trial; this is not the vaccine.

SPX 60 min w/ bullish

Posted by rjdst on 3rd of Dec 2021 at 04:16 pm

SPX 60 min w/ bullish descending broadening wedge.  With that in mind, I closed out a UVXY position when SPX hit yesterday's lows.

ZH... not really news.  As a friendly fyi, COVID vaccines don't prevent an infection, only mitigate symptoms, viral load and potential for forward transmission.  There are a lot of vaccinated people who have had the virus.  Now back to my regularly scheduled chart watching. :-)

FSM looking interesting here.  Held

Posted by rjdst on 15th of Sep 2021 at 03:34 pm

FSM looking interesting here.  Held up well while Silver putted about this week and bounced up off 9EMA.  Inverse H&S and falling wedge w/ MACD divergence.  Taking a half position with stop below previous low.

As someone else noted a while ago, interesting how news and technical sometime align....

KL - gold stock.  Strong

Posted by rjdst on 2nd of Sep 2021 at 03:42 pm

KL - gold stock.  Strong day despite gold being down.  Picked it up yesterday prior to close.  Today, blasted up through the 9, 20, 50 and 200.   Currently at $40.80.  H&S pattern target would be $56.

GME - pulled back to

Posted by rjdst on 2nd of Sep 2021 at 03:38 pm

GME - pulled back to the 9  on the daily which, during those explosive moves up, has acted as strong support.  Also coiling on the hourly.  Not in it tho may pick up a small position before close.

CAN - so far, can't;

Posted by rjdst on 2nd of Sep 2021 at 11:12 am

CAN - so far, can't; but trying to push over resistance...

No doubt.  The /wsb autists are probably making UNG memes now....

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