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Oil getting drilled.  That diamond

Posted by rjdst on 19th of Jul 2021 at 11:16 am

Oil getting drilled.  That diamond made for a nice trade.  DUG, DRIP, ERY.  Will take a little profit here, but that's an ugly candle and nothing else about this chart says bottoming.  We'll see if it can go to $62 next.

DIS... no news that I found.  What I do see - and this is something I've worked into my own strategies/plans - is when there's a big volume day like there was on Monday, and volume wasn't building leading up to that spike, I tend to monitor for a few days after to see if price comes back down for a better entry.  Others here may have better explanations, but those look to me like some institutional buyer went on a buying spree and didn't care if their own demand drove up the price.  So after the buying spree ends and there are no other buyers up there, price pulls back to where the buyers/sellers were previously.  Long-term, the volume can be a bullish indicator, but some pullback is logical if price spiked with volume.  

Speculating a little, too... I've noticed on many charts that the alogs get happy when the 9 crosses up over the 50.  Not guaranteed, but happens a lot.  You get a price spike followed by a logical pullback or consolidation.  Alone it's not a buy signal for me, but when other indicators align, I love getting an entry just as the 9 is about to cross up and over.  

Thanks.  One of the many things I've learned here.

KL gold stock... I've posted

Posted by rjdst on 16th of Jul 2021 at 02:56 pm

KL gold stock... I've posted this a couple of times recently for the IHS pattern, which I still like.  Was monitoring for an entry and almost bought yesterday but noticed the rising wedge (better seen on the 30min) that is now playing out.  Longer-term, still looks good.  Wedge target is around $39.95 which roughly corresponds to the 200MA, so a move down to that or the middle BB would get me interested in a buy.  (Edit:  had wrong price target.  fixed now).

/CL... diamond topping pattern playing

Posted by rjdst on 16th of Jul 2021 at 02:35 pm

/CL... diamond topping pattern playing out.  It did bounce off the 50ma today, but if that lets go, a whooosh down to the $61.80 area seems likely.  DRIP, DUG, ERY.

+1000 TICK pullback... Interesting observation; thanks for sharing.  How far back have you studied?  Asking because, if I understand correctly, I see on Jul 1st and 9th that it exceeded 1000 and both were trend days.  I haven't looked farther back but will over the weekend.  

I like FinViz for a

Posted by rjdst on 13th of Jul 2021 at 10:50 am

I like FinViz for a consolidated visual snapshot of the markets.

KL and AEM looking interesting, too.  Posted these a while back as potential IHS patterns.  Starting to play out.  Of the two, KL looks better to me as it's already cleared some overhead resistance.

GE retraced and tagged its

Posted by rjdst on 7th of Jul 2021 at 07:23 pm

GE retraced and tagged its BO support.  Monitoring, not buying - went mostly all cash before leaving for vacation and will stay that way. Market too messy to trade while traveling.  Apologies for clunky chart - posted from mobile phone. 

Interesting post from another site

Posted by rjdst on 7th of Jul 2021 at 07:16 pm

Interesting post from another site I hang out on; may have been posted yesterday:

The Nasdaq Composite closed at a 52-week high today, something it's done 1,080 times since 1984.
On those days, an average of 50% of stocks on the Nasdaq advanced on the day.
Today, 31% of stocks on the exchange advanced. That's the lowest out of all those 1,080 days.

GE - looking good

Posted by rjdst on 30th of Jun 2021 at 12:15 pm

GE - looking good

VIAC looking good coming off

Posted by rjdst on 28th of Jun 2021 at 08:01 pm

VIAC looking good coming off a bottom, too.  Starting to pick up some volume as well.

Yeah, this has been a

very nice week on BABA

Posted by rjdst on 25th of Jun 2021 at 04:07 pm

Yeah, this has been a great trade.  Making up for my poor entry on HLX...

Yeah, exited awhile back. Downside of not being able to manage more than 8-10 positions is that I don't keep very small positions to let them run like this; I close to make room for something new.  I don't like putting in stop orders on bigger positions, but may need to think about doing that just in these situations so I can leave a little to run.

LPI - absolutely unstoppable.  Long

Posted by rjdst on 25th of Jun 2021 at 11:03 am

LPI - absolutely unstoppable.  Long ago exited, but it continues to ignore resistance.

Similar here, smaller position size is very helpful - it enables the repeated experience and positive reinforcement of being able to hold through a pullback and riding price back up.  

A couple of issues that I experience... if stocks are bouncing after stopping you out, are your stops too conservative given the typical trading range of the stock (and logical support)?  That happens to me when I take too big a position and try to manage risk by setting stops tighter than what price actions indicates is a reasonable stop.  

I used to consider max % loss when planning my stops.  For me, doesn't work so well.  Now I more often think about max $ loss.  If I'm going to get uncomfortable if I'm down $300 on a single position, and a logical stop is 4% below current price, then I shouldn't be taking a position that exceeds $7,500.   If the logical stop is 6% below current price, then max position size should be $5k.  

I also look at average daily moves of a stock.  If something is high beta and moves 5, 7 or 10% on a regular basis, I have no business getting into it if I feel my stop has to be just a few % lower than current price.  One average intraday move could stop me out.  I'm more confident and trade better when taking positions that would require at least a couple days' worth of avg. decline to stop me out.  

GE - breaking over the

Posted by rjdst on 24th of Jun 2021 at 03:21 pm

GE - breaking over the downtrend line from early June.  Put in a higher low yesterday.  60min chart.

HLX - very interesting comparison

HLX technical observation

Posted by rjdst on 24th of Jun 2021 at 01:04 pm

HLX - very interesting comparison to LPI which has doubled since mid-May.  HLX looking poised to do something similar, possibly.   

LPI took off after it broke over resistance that went back to last Nov.  HLX has a similar chart, and is just now approaching that resistance from below.  Obviously different companies with different products/services; just noting the similarities in the technical setup.

I took a sizeable position this morning, a little after that pullback.  Looking to add upon BO.

Agreed.  Some think it's bearish, some think there's value in reducing the number of shares.  Who knows.  Maybe Culp gets a bonus when the stock gets above $100.     


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