Posted by mirhamedali on 14th of Sep 2022 at 11:59 am
Looks like 5 micro waves of wave [1] are done. If we get a
big A-B-C like I have drawn out then the next wave [3] down will be
epic!
I think we move up in the form a small inverted head and
shoulders. Kobie's favorite pattern ;-)
Posted by mirhamedali on 14th of Sep 2022 at 10:29 am
The challenge is that you don't know when the wave three will
end because they have a tendency to extend. You also want to let
winners run a bit. So I typically wait for a wave four and then
exit as soon as we pop into wave five. I don't milk the wave five
at all. The other challenge is that sometimes we get a truncated
wave five. The best solution is to take profits as you go
especially when wave three is extending.
Posted by mirhamedali on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:32 pm
I agree Matt. The market has a fractal nature. Looking at past
patterns help provide some guidance. It's simply one tool of many.
It's not necessarily predictive but some help lay out possible road
maps.
Posted by mirhamedali on 12th of Sep 2022 at 11:52 pm
@tmbrook1, here is the example you requested
This is on QQQ. First image is a normal Bear Put Spread,
2nd one adds a 385 Call which is just $0.21, so its dirt
cheap insurance in case the market moves against me. Even if
the market goes up 10% my loss is almost zero.
But as you can see the insurance starts losing some juice after
about a month, but its best practice to exit spreads early (at
around 50% of max profit).
As an advanced tactic, if the market moves against you then
you can sell that OTM call if you feel the market will come back in
your favor thus banking some profit in the interim.
Posted by mirhamedali on 12th of Sep 2022 at 04:50 pm
I dont want the market to be flat so that I can exit the trade
early. I rarely hold to expiration. I normally exit
halfway through. I end up making more on a per day basis that
way.
You are right the ladder can happen naturally if you are
opening trades on both sides, that's a cool approach. But
then one trade may be a loser. However with an actual ladder
each of the trades can be winners.
Posted by mirhamedali on 12th of Sep 2022 at 03:14 pm
Have you guys looked at Ladder credit spreads? You are
basically adding on one far OTM option to cover the possibility of
a surprise move in the wrong direction.
By doing a ladder you can win no matter which direction the
market moves ... all you need to bank on is the market moving at
least 3 % up or down - a flat market is no good.
Posted by mirhamedali on 12th of Sep 2022 at 03:10 pm
I do the same thing DigiNomad: use TA to lean in one direction
while opening spreads.
I like to open credit spreads just because my downside risk
is capped, plus I think the margin requirement is lower since I am
taking on the credit. I agree, its good to have a system
where you can win in 3 of 4 scenarios, 80% of the time.
I open 2-3 month long spreads and usually close them out in
about a month ... depending on where we are in the elliott wave
counts. I find its not worth holding all the way
You can make more with spreads than with the indexes
themselves
Posted by mirhamedali on 12th of Sep 2022 at 02:31 pm
Looks like SPX wants to hit the .618 retrace
which would then surely lead to some kind of pullback
that pullback could be the major drop into wave 3 of three
or it would just be a B wave pullback followed by C up to
close that gap at 4225
Posted by mirhamedali on 9th of Sep 2022 at 06:09 pm
Same here Steve. That resistance point is also the 38% retrace
from the previous high. So lots of confluence above. And we have
had no pull back from the lows yet.
I am hoping this starts the big wave three of three down but I
wonder if there might be a bit more chopping around.
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Hi Matt - would you
SPX chart back to 1974
Posted by mirhamedali on 25th of Sep 2022 at 05:01 pm
Hi Matt - would you be able to share the chart link for this one please?
Stocks above 50 and above
% Stocks above 20 day SMA
Posted by mirhamedali on 17th of Sep 2022 at 06:49 pm
Stocks above 50 and above 200 did take out sep lows however. Fwiw.
ARKK, BTCC, Cloud and Cyber
Posted by mirhamedali on 16th of Sep 2022 at 10:12 pm
ARKK, BTCC, Cloud and Cyber Security stocks have all still not broken their September lows. Positive divergence??
Sentiment seems to have LOTS
Posted by mirhamedali on 16th of Sep 2022 at 08:48 pm
Sentiment seems to have LOTS of room to fall before it gets extreme
Matt / Steve do know what day the new AAII surveys come out? Is that over the weekend?
It's so weird seeing the
Posted by mirhamedali on 16th of Sep 2022 at 08:21 pm
It's so weird seeing the entire CNBC panel so bearish. None of them even blinked when Carter said target = low 2000s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0V334TtgNQ&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision
Do you think that we
Posted by mirhamedali on 15th of Sep 2022 at 12:03 pm
Do you think that we were just in micro wave 4 yesterday and this drop is wave 5?
If so then wave 2 can still happen (next happen).
Before that we do have a couple of gaps to close below (in the NDX)
I agree. Also looking for
NQ 15min will monitor to see if this resolves to ...
Posted by mirhamedali on 14th of Sep 2022 at 12:53 pm
I agree. Also looking for a 50 to 61.8% retrace here to open next tranche of shorts
Looks like 5 micro waves
Posted by mirhamedali on 14th of Sep 2022 at 11:59 am
Looks like 5 micro waves of wave [1] are done. If we get a big A-B-C like I have drawn out then the next wave [3] down will be epic!
I think we move up in the form a small inverted head and shoulders. Kobie's favorite pattern ;-)
The challenge is that you
I think many were caught out yesterday with the wave ...
Posted by mirhamedali on 14th of Sep 2022 at 10:29 am
The challenge is that you don't know when the wave three will end because they have a tendency to extend. You also want to let winners run a bit. So I typically wait for a wave four and then exit as soon as we pop into wave five. I don't milk the wave five at all. The other challenge is that sometimes we get a truncated wave five. The best solution is to take profits as you go especially when wave three is extending.
I agree Matt. The market
Ciovacco Capital - this is why I stopped watching stuff ...
Posted by mirhamedali on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:32 pm
I agree Matt. The market has a fractal nature. Looking at past patterns help provide some guidance. It's simply one tool of many. It's not necessarily predictive but some help lay out possible road maps.
I REALLY hope we get
Bearish Mapping Wave 3
Posted by mirhamedali on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:00 pm
I REALLY hope we get that wave 2 Steve. Would love to load up on some options!
This island top looks really
Posted by mirhamedali on 13th of Sep 2022 at 12:29 pm
This island top looks really ominous. Seems to be the perfect way for the market to start wave 3 down to new lows.
Just waiting on confirmation now. Need to see if we get 5 micro waves down, followed corrective A-B-C , followed by the plunge to new lows
Things look impulsive to the downside so far.
she looks ready to break
GOOG Weekly
Posted by mirhamedali on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:44 am
she looks ready to break - good chart
@tmbrook1, here is the example
I understand the reasons why so many are bearish right ...
Posted by mirhamedali on 12th of Sep 2022 at 11:52 pm
@tmbrook1, here is the example you requested
This is on QQQ. First image is a normal Bear Put Spread, 2nd one adds a 385 Call which is just $0.21, so its dirt cheap insurance in case the market moves against me. Even if the market goes up 10% my loss is almost zero.
But as you can see the insurance starts losing some juice after about a month, but its best practice to exit spreads early (at around 50% of max profit).
As an advanced tactic, if the market moves against you then you can sell that OTM call if you feel the market will come back in your favor thus banking some profit in the interim.
I agree. I think bears
Looks like SPX wants to hit the .618 retracewhich would ...
Posted by mirhamedali on 12th of Sep 2022 at 11:15 pm
I agree. I think bears are really getting squeezed here.
I dont want the market
I understand the reasons why so many are bearish right ...
Posted by mirhamedali on 12th of Sep 2022 at 04:50 pm
I dont want the market to be flat so that I can exit the trade early. I rarely hold to expiration. I normally exit halfway through. I end up making more on a per day basis that way.
You are right the ladder can happen naturally if you are opening trades on both sides, that's a cool approach. But then one trade may be a loser. However with an actual ladder each of the trades can be winners.
Have you guys looked at
I understand the reasons why so many are bearish right ...
Posted by mirhamedali on 12th of Sep 2022 at 03:14 pm
Have you guys looked at Ladder credit spreads? You are basically adding on one far OTM option to cover the possibility of a surprise move in the wrong direction.
By doing a ladder you can win no matter which direction the market moves ... all you need to bank on is the market moving at least 3 % up or down - a flat market is no good.
I do the same thing
I understand the reasons why so many are bearish right ...
Posted by mirhamedali on 12th of Sep 2022 at 03:10 pm
I do the same thing DigiNomad: use TA to lean in one direction while opening spreads.
I like to open credit spreads just because my downside risk is capped, plus I think the margin requirement is lower since I am taking on the credit. I agree, its good to have a system where you can win in 3 of 4 scenarios, 80% of the time.
I open 2-3 month long spreads and usually close them out in about a month ... depending on where we are in the elliott wave counts. I find its not worth holding all the way
You can make more with spreads than with the indexes themselves
Looks like SPX wants to
Posted by mirhamedali on 12th of Sep 2022 at 02:31 pm
Looks like SPX wants to hit the .618 retrace
which would then surely lead to some kind of pullback
that pullback could be the major drop into wave 3 of three
or it would just be a B wave pullback followed by C up to close that gap at 4225
Same here Steve. That resistance
SPX Views
Posted by mirhamedali on 9th of Sep 2022 at 06:09 pm
Same here Steve. That resistance point is also the 38% retrace from the previous high. So lots of confluence above. And we have had no pull back from the lows yet.
I am hoping this starts the big wave three of three down but I wonder if there might be a bit more chopping around.