Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:54 am
Ciovacco Capital - this is why I stopped watching stuff that
relies on historical analogy to predict movements instead of just
trading level to level. For one, there is no historical analogy to
this period. There just isn't. Fed, Congress and the Executive
branch all worked together and, unintentionally, created an almost
unsolvable maze of economic conditions. The only way out is to,
eventually, fall on our sword. But we're going to fight tooth and
nail to avoid that eventuality.
@DigiNomad: Am I reading your statement correctly
regarding unintentionally?
Fed, Congress and the Executive branch all worked together
and,
unintentionally,created an almost unsolvable maze of
economic conditions.
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 12:57 pm
rfa300 - Yes, using UNINTENTIONALLY was intentional, on my part.
I have plenty of clients that persistently forward me links to
various people talking about "the Great Reset," etc, etc. Or Robert
Kiyosaki links. Most of the links are from people that profit from
the sale of gold and silver, in one way or another. I choose not to
go down those rabbit holes and didn't want to trigger anyone to
think i'm on board with the theories surrounding conspiracies to
bring down the country. I have nothing against people who choose to
believe in these theories. I'm just not personally in that
camp.
Well, thanks for your perspective and I agree to an extent. All
one has to do is look at what's being done to this country whether
intentionally or not.
Back to the markets and the great guidance and support Matt and
Steve provide.
Well stated - a complete debauchery over the past 20+ years that
some simply cannot comprehend - it's one bubble to the next
requiring more deficits every time
well...the reversion to mean systems use historical data
-basically I analyzed historical data to come up with the settings
that the various systems look to short.
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:58 am
Agree. Pattern recognition is all based on history. But it's a
different kind of pattern recognition. I'm sure you have seen the
Ciavacco video on YouTube, right? He attempts to overlay time
periods from previous historical events and includes mentions of
things like recessions, inflation, etc. Instead of just looking at
the short term levels and patterns that are presenting
themselves.
we follow some people for some ideas or to see what others are
saying - but as I told Steve the other day - we go with what our
analysis and gut is saying. We have been doing this a long time and
are experts 50 years collectively, we can look at other guys for
some ideas here and there, but at the end of the day we go with
what our analysis says, not someone else's.
Same for you guys - ESPECIALLY if you have your own systematic
approach that you have refined to fit you, go with that, use us for
ideas
that said, regarding pattern recognition - that's the most
powerful, and that is also not something that I can program into
systems - our eyes can easily see patterns but trying to program
that into a computer is not something I can do. It's a big
difference we have over computers - the ability to easily see
patterns like that. Now where computers are better than us is
pure statistics and hard math. That's what the systems look for -
stuff that we are not good at. I can't program the systems to look
for stock patterns (coils, flags) but I can have them look at
historical data and tell me when prices get too far stretched from
the mean - which is what the systems do
Posted by mirhamedali on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:32 pm
I agree Matt. The market has a fractal nature. Looking at past
patterns help provide some guidance. It's simply one tool of many.
It's not necessarily predictive but some help lay out possible road
maps.
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 12:15 pm
Wedges & Flags - I have some code / scripts that identify
them, but they suck for now. Will probably be hard to beat the
computer approach once they get better!
Anyway, your systems have been rocking, Matt. Thanks!
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Ciovacco Capital - this is
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:54 am
Ciovacco Capital - this is why I stopped watching stuff that relies on historical analogy to predict movements instead of just trading level to level. For one, there is no historical analogy to this period. There just isn't. Fed, Congress and the Executive branch all worked together and, unintentionally, created an almost unsolvable maze of economic conditions. The only way out is to, eventually, fall on our sword. But we're going to fight tooth and nail to avoid that eventuality.
@DigiNomad: Am I reading your
Posted by rfa300 on 13th of Sep 2022 at 12:48 pm
@DigiNomad: Am I reading your statement correctly regarding unintentionally? Fed, Congress and the Executive branch all worked together and, unintentionally,created an almost unsolvable maze of economic conditions.
rfa300 - Yes, using UNINTENTIONALLY
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 12:57 pm
rfa300 - Yes, using UNINTENTIONALLY was intentional, on my part. I have plenty of clients that persistently forward me links to various people talking about "the Great Reset," etc, etc. Or Robert Kiyosaki links. Most of the links are from people that profit from the sale of gold and silver, in one way or another. I choose not to go down those rabbit holes and didn't want to trigger anyone to think i'm on board with the theories surrounding conspiracies to bring down the country. I have nothing against people who choose to believe in these theories. I'm just not personally in that camp.
Well, thanks for your perspective
Posted by rfa300 on 13th of Sep 2022 at 01:03 pm
Well, thanks for your perspective and I agree to an extent. All one has to do is look at what's being done to this country whether intentionally or not.
Back to the markets and the great guidance and support Matt and Steve provide.
Well stated - a complete
Posted by steve on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:58 am
Well stated - a complete debauchery over the past 20+ years that some simply cannot comprehend - it's one bubble to the next requiring more deficits every time
well...the reversion to mean systems
Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:55 am
well...the reversion to mean systems use historical data -basically I analyzed historical data to come up with the settings that the various systems look to short.
Agree. Pattern recognition is all
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:58 am
Agree. Pattern recognition is all based on history. But it's a different kind of pattern recognition. I'm sure you have seen the Ciavacco video on YouTube, right? He attempts to overlay time periods from previous historical events and includes mentions of things like recessions, inflation, etc. Instead of just looking at the short term levels and patterns that are presenting themselves.
we follow some people for
Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2022 at 12:06 pm
we follow some people for some ideas or to see what others are saying - but as I told Steve the other day - we go with what our analysis and gut is saying. We have been doing this a long time and are experts 50 years collectively, we can look at other guys for some ideas here and there, but at the end of the day we go with what our analysis says, not someone else's.
Same for you guys - ESPECIALLY if you have your own systematic approach that you have refined to fit you, go with that, use us for ideas
that said, regarding pattern recognition - that's the most powerful, and that is also not something that I can program into systems - our eyes can easily see patterns but trying to program that into a computer is not something I can do. It's a big difference we have over computers - the ability to easily see patterns like that. Now where computers are better than us is pure statistics and hard math. That's what the systems look for - stuff that we are not good at. I can't program the systems to look for stock patterns (coils, flags) but I can have them look at historical data and tell me when prices get too far stretched from the mean - which is what the systems do
I agree Matt. The market
Posted by mirhamedali on 13th of Sep 2022 at 11:32 pm
I agree Matt. The market has a fractal nature. Looking at past patterns help provide some guidance. It's simply one tool of many. It's not necessarily predictive but some help lay out possible road maps.
Wedges & Flags - I
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 12:15 pm
Wedges & Flags - I have some code / scripts that identify them, but they suck for now. Will probably be hard to beat the computer approach once they get better!
Anyway, your systems have been rocking, Matt. Thanks!