Finally I get a winner.

that closing strongly below the 20 month MA, like we did at the end of September, signals a bear market?   Is this just a bullshit move to suck in more buyers?  Does it make ANY sense at all to be short here?

or losses, if you are in the SPY swing system.   I find it hard to believe that this system has a 35/1 profit ratio based on the time I've traded the POS.

Just so I understand, according to the weekend and Monday reports, we ARE in a bear market, based on closing  below the 20 month MA on Sept 30, so the current rally is contratrend, right? 

I am not a dayttrader, but rather am trying to position the portfolio to be aligned with the primary trend and exit some long positions.  Of course, it's a little frustrating to be holding shorts right here...Would a logical highest target for a top be at 1208?

Who is this Peter Campbell guy?  Everyone seems to call out his name.  Does he have any street cred or is he another Prechter?

Been selling off all day after gap on the open.

it does us no good to know to diligently review the newsletters to expect a bounce if the damn thing, whether it be gold, oil stocks, or the general market GAPS before the open. 

For example, you made an awesome call on the oil stocks, highlighting ERX, but the it gapped up almost 3 points from last night's close.  You can't actually make any real money that way.

Good call, but, I would venture to say that less that 10% of people have a way to buy silver futures at 2 am. Let's keep it real, please

Seems like asset classes are keying off the US Dollar.  It was short term overbought and UUP pulled back at end of day, which seemed to coincide with the market and GDX pushing higher, and with a hammer on $copper.

What would be a logical pullback level for UUP?

That was true even BEFORE last weeks drubbing.  The bears were greater than the bulls then; of course, the ratio doubled after that.

Wow, I'm not really a day trader.  Some days at work, I have more time than others to follow the market.  I could have SWORN that the 1150 area would have held as resistance and been a GREAT place to short. 

I've of course been long precious metals stocks, including GDX, core position as well as via the swing system, and now THEY are getting trashed.  It's just frustrating getting hacked to death in this market. 

I need traders therapy something aweful

After reading forums (Smart Money Tracker(Gary), Leavitt Brothers, this is the "script" the market is supposed to follow, it seems, based on daily cycles on the markets, the dollar--

Break decisively lower on worsening news out of Europe, to test the summer 2010 lows at 1010-1030 by the first week in November, to bottom then launch huge 4th quarterrally back to declining 200d MA by the end of the year, THEN, to trend lower from there for 2010, until the March 2009 lows are taken out.

This seems like it is "too easy" and I'm sure money wrenches will come into play.

What are your guys thoughts?????

How's that for a kick in the ass.  If you short silver with ZSL it is DOWN with silver in the red.

Zeal LLC, whom Matt often quotes published an article last week (see link below)

commenting that the tempo and character of market weakness in August is historically characteristic of BULL market corrections rather than BEAR market beginnings...would welcome commentary, please.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30346.html

Can you elaborate?  How does that translate into action?  Are you saying you would not short the indices here?  Are you saying you would look for long side trades, even after the market has been up for 4 days?

I was reading the Zeal LLC missive from Sept 9, which I thought was a nice counterbalance to the bearish tone of the prior posts.  They make mention of how corrections unfold vs. how bear markets unfold--corrects are quick and sharp at their outset (like the August drop) whereas bear markets don't just "come out of nowhere" but start slow and are the most fierce towards the end. 

The message is that the current decline is more corrective than bear like, implying that sustainably higher prices are ahead. 

Any thoughts??

Does anybody have the latest on the commercial traders long position on SPX?

Matt, I saw your sticky after my question.  Thank you for your response, and sorry for sounding so exasperated , which I am, but as you said, it may be best to not trade in such an environment...

With various indicators, such as bullish percent and NYSI 5/3 weekly on buy signals, and with sentiment continuing bearish even with a pattern of higher lows and highs in the short term, isn't there ANY bias for an intermediate term move up to the 1240's???? 

Overtrading sucks, and this up and down chop is driving me f'ing crazy, and I would like, if justified, to take a position to an objective target!