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bad fills

Posted by kurzweg on 20th of Jul 2009 at 03:34 pm

fyi, for me the "bad fill" are what the poster in that link is seeing (he is a professional Trader).  Last week I tried to buy 1,000 share GMCR at say 56.  A million shares had traded.  Level II showed 400 shares offered at 56 and some higher of course.  I got NOTHING.  The Ask disappeard.

SRS

Posted by kurzweg on 20th of Jul 2009 at 03:28 pm

IYR broke hard through its 200 day.  I continue to believe (like I said last week) you simply cannot go short this market until PERHAPS AFTER aapl reports.  The animal spirits are raging.

That doesn't mean you can't try an SRS (I did that too last week) but it has to be a scalp.

me too and this is why

Getting horrible fills lately

Posted by kurzweg on 20th of Jul 2009 at 03:19 pm

http://blog.themistrading.com/?p=174

Honestly,

Posted by kurzweg on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:52 pm

I thought we (taxpayers) were supposed to make money on this deal???  This is so bad it looks like a typo.  23.7 BILLION instead of Trillion?  Hopefully it is a typo.

U.S. Bailout Costs May Reach $23.7 Trillion, TARP Inspector Says 

Share |  Email |  Print |  A   A   A

By Dawn Kopecki

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. taxpayers may be on the hook for as much as $23.7 trillion to bail out financial companies, according to Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Barofsky made the estimate in testimony prepared for a congressional hearing tomorrow.

one more note on IYR

SRS

Posted by kurzweg on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:28 pm

As IYR creeps over 33, one could argue it is setting up to break out.  

SRS chart pattern

SRS

Posted by kurzweg on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:24 pm

On an ETF like SRS, in which it is a leveraged derivative of another underlying ETF (in this case, the IYR), I usually look at the chart of IYR when trying to decide what SRS and IYR are going to do.  Right now, if I objectively look at IYR, four days ago it passed the 20 Day, today it's probably going to close over the 50 day and it looks like it will overtake the 200 day in a few days.  Those are of course all positives for IYR and negative for SRS.  

On the negative argument against IYR, the 200 day is FALLING and IYR's recent rise has been on decreasing volume (wedging up).

I've done well trading SRS this year and perhaps very short term it is over sold and due for a bounce, but its hard for me to look at the IYR chart, along with the positive tone of the market, and come to the conclusion SRS is basing.

Anyway, that's just my perspective.  Good Luck.

GMCR

GMCR

Posted by kurzweg on 20th of Jul 2009 at 10:51 am

It hit an IBD "Buy Point" which is a huge deal with stocks like that.  Lots of IBD followers on that name.

mktcall - How I use this site

Posted by kurzweg on 19th of Jul 2009 at 12:53 pm

I understand and appreciate your questions and points, but you might have instead taken my approach upon joining the site, which was to read and listen more before positing your views and asking so many questions.  I know you are using your free 2 weeks to gather info prior to subbing.  I skipped the free trial and joined immediately because a couple investing buddies I trust were already here and strongly recommended it.  Perhaps the statistical results of the Mechanical Systems cannot be viewed by Trial Members because they are listed under "Premium Content".  If so, that's unfortunate because those results alone would provide more than enough proof of the value proposition this site offers.

I am primarily a CANSLIM investor, as are my friends who directed me to this site.  My prinicipal use of this site is to help me assess the general direction of the market for the next few months.  The "M" in CANSLIM stands for Market Direction and is the most important component to me.  Its hard to make money in good stocks if the market is dropping.  This site did a great job of getting it's members back into stocks after March.  The type of stocks I have owned are not even mentioned here, or at least I haven't seen them...SNDA, NTES, CYOU, TNDM, LFT (and many of the others that flow into/out of IBD).  

So in summary, I don't really use this site for specific stock recommendations (even though the Watchlist has performed well) because buying those stocks for quick hits isn't really what I do.  Though sometimes I do fall off the wagon and trade an SRS while I'm waiting on a trend. (bought Thursday, sold Friday for $1,400 gain)

I also use www.gilmoreport.com but Gil only publishes 2 reports a week so the lack of timely information is becoming a source of frustration for me.  But. at a minimum, its a good read for $50/month.

IMHO, the best thing about this site, compared to the other Interactive/Chat available sites is the supportive tone of the posters.  There are not an excessive amount of Testosterone events here because they are not tolerated by the Owners or the subs.  That's why you are experiencing a little push-back right out of the chute.  I'm not saying you have been out of line; its just that the personalities on this site are way calmer than the others.

Good luck with your decision on whether to join and hope you use your remaining free time to observe Chat because that alone will answer many of your questions.  I think I was a member for a couple months before I joined in the Chat.

I think they'll continue to hold the market up, at least until then.  People will want to be in that name before earnings and they are 12% of the QQQQ's I believe.

MOS

MOS

Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 03:49 pm

Yesterday VALE was rumored to be taking them over.  Guess that's blowing up today.

Confirmation of what Matt has been preaching

Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 03:30 pm
  Howard Simons
Guess Who Snuck Back In The Room?
7/17/2009 1:25 PM EDT

September crude oil futures are up 6.64% on the week while the cash S&P 500 is up 6.70%. At the wide standard deviations of return surrounding both markets, this is a statistical push.

The question then arises as to which market, if any, was manipulated? The answer, of course, is "Neither." If we go back to 1991, after the various price limits on crude oil futures were loosened in the front months, we find 81 of 948 weeks, 8.54% of the observations, with this return or higher. Interestingly, stocks have had only 7 weeks of these returns or higher.

This really has been an exceptional week for U.S. stocks. That it occurred during a strong but not exceptional week for crude oil confirms the positive correlation between the two markets I have written about over the years.

fyi on Rev

worth considering

Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 03:17 pm

For those that don't know of him or follow him (through RealMoney or his own website) Rev is VERY Skeptical of this rally and I'd say shares most Bear's concerns on the economy etc.

For those that didn't know, I didn't want you to assume he is a Raging Bull.  He is not and I'm certain has missed most of the big move off of the lows.

btw, his site is not nearly as good as this one and if you choose the option that allows Chat, I believe he charges $500/month.

worth considering

Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 03:04 pm


When markets make very strong, straight-up moves there is often an inclination for traders who want to be contrary to try to play for a reversal. That can be frustrating because strong markets often are quite sticky to the upside. They may not continue to advance at the same pace but they don't immediately roll over either.

We are seeing a good example of that sort of action today. We are holding solid even though we have been up all week and are overbought by most measures.

What is happening is that the folks who were unable or unwilling to chase the market up over the last few days are still trying to find a way to gain exposure and are providing underlying support. They are bothered that they missed out on the move and now they want to try to make it up.

They jump in fast and keep the pullbacks shallow. They also seek out some things that haven't moved much yet and get them moving as well.

A healthy market will churn like this for a while, maybe even dip a bit more and then produce another leg higher. An unhealthy market will see the dip-buyers lose interest and an increased inclination to protect recent gains.

So far there is nothing very troubling about this action at all. It is exactly the sort of upside stickiness and consolidation you'd expect when we made a straight-up move. With big earnings next week from Apple( AAPL - commentary - Trade Now ) in particular, the sellers are unlikely to press too much.

We will get some more pullbacks but be prepared for them to be very shallow. Too many folks missed out and they are looking for a way to get in.

A Good Market Is Tough to Bring Down

By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor

7/17/2009 2:28 PM EDT
   

more CIT

CIT

Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 12:40 pm

and look at the chart.  Be careful with the Shorts.

CIT

Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 12:39 pm

on the wires talking about getting Financing from JPM and GS and NOT talking about debtor in possession financing (means they are not looking at BR).

If true, news like this could be a good excuse for an afternoon rally.

yes, right

AAPL

Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 11:59 am

IBM keeping the Dow up and I think AAPL is 12% of the QQQQ.

AAPL

Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 11:56 am

is single-handidly keeping this market from completely tanking.  For now.

the Dow Jones avg

SPX 15 min and 60 period stochastics

Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 11:45 am

is fortunate that GE has become such a small part of that index.  That's why the Dow looks so much better than all the other indexes this morning.  GE is sucking but they only count 10% of what IBM does now, since the Dow is a (stupid) PRICE weighted index.

rp, fund flows

Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 11:35 am

That's what Lowry follows, right?  Where do you get your data?

Matt, thanks

MATT

Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 11:14 am

NO problem.  I know what you are up against and think you are doing a great job.

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