My apologies. I'm relatively new to the site and didn't
realize it would be offensive to request that a tool be fixed
that's been available every day, and then disappears.
One of the larger negatives from the
General Electric(GE) results were equipment
orders: down 42%, which was greater than estimates of down 15% and
worst-case whisper estimates of upwards of -25%. Services orders
were actually up 2%, so together industrial total orders down 25%
for the quarter.
On the brighter side, GE Capital had better-than-expected
earnings, and that's with significant additions to loan loss
reserves. Bad-debt reserves, depending on assumptions used, don't
look nearly as bad as the dire forecasts. /////
my comments....Great, when GE financial was in the crapper, the
GE bulls argued "yes finance is bad but they have that GREAT
Industrial business". And now that the Industrial biz has
fallen off a cliff they want to argue "Look how well the Finance
biz has turned".
That drop off in Industrial orders looks cataclismic to me.
I used Yahoo "adjusted close" numbers (not sure why they needed
to be adjusted; maybe a dividend was paid). Anyway, Looked at
1/2/09 to 2/2/09. During that month SRS went from 53.23 to
58.30, a gain of 9.5% while IYR went from 34.88 to 30.38, a decline
of 12.9%.
That, obviously, is not good correlation. Looks like the
relationship may only hold for a week or two.
The best way to answer that question is to manually look at some
specific scenarios comparing SRS to IYR, as SRS moves 2x inverse to
IYR. From 3.6.09 IYR went from 22.21 to 32.92, a 48%
increase. During the same dates SRS went from 99.32 to 18.60,
a decline of 81%. To me, that timeframe looks reasonably
valid.
However, on 11/21/08 SRS closed at 200.37 while IYR was
27.30. Obviously that time frame compared to now is totally
whacky.
I need to do more work to get a definitive answer (I've wondered
the same thing) but my guess is the 2:1 relationship holds for
weeks and maybe a couple of months but after that it really breaks
down.
from the Trader Tax is $400 Billion annually. Of course in
typical government fashion, they assume the same amount of trading
will take place which of course it won't. If you guys look at
last year's Broker Statement and do the Math I think you'll be
shocked. I was.
would be .25% (quarter of 1 percent) of the total value TRADED,
Buys and Sells (not your profit). Last year my Trader Tax
would have come to $57,000, taking a significant part of my
profits. I will quit trading if it passes.
For those that may not know, since SRS is a double inverse of
IYR, if you want to short SRS but cannot locate the shares, you can
buy IYR. Just remember SRS is 2X IYR.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
bill, srs
SRS
Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 11:03 am
yea, I just set it up on schwab's streetsmart. I'm just not certain it was showing the correct results. I show it now as close, but no cigar.
con
KURZ take a pill make ur own chart!
Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 10:54 am
My apologies. I'm relatively new to the site and didn't realize it would be offensive to request that a tool be fixed that's been available every day, and then disappears.
MATT
Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 10:44 am
Why can't we get the SRS chart to work? We have the 2 FAZ charts. This has been commented on all morning.
took my SRS gain
Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 10:05 am
I cashed in a nice .70 gain on my SRS purchase from yesterday. I don't like flying blind (I STILL don't see an SRS chart. just 2 FAZ charts.
RealMoney comments on GE
Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 10:00 am
One of the larger negatives from the General Electric(GE) results were equipment orders: down 42%, which was greater than estimates of down 15% and worst-case whisper estimates of upwards of -25%. Services orders were actually up 2%, so together industrial total orders down 25% for the quarter.
On the brighter side, GE Capital had better-than-expected earnings, and that's with significant additions to loan loss reserves. Bad-debt reserves, depending on assumptions used, don't look nearly as bad as the dire forecasts. /////
my comments....Great, when GE financial was in the crapper, the GE bulls argued "yes finance is bad but they have that GREAT Industrial business". And now that the Industrial biz has fallen off a cliff they want to argue "Look how well the Finance biz has turned".
That drop off in Industrial orders looks cataclismic to me.
cal, same here
I have no SRS chart at all, just FAZ charts. ...
Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 09:50 am
I only have the 2 FAZ charts
SRS chart?
srs from freecharts
Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 09:36 am
I still just have 2 FAZ charts. I'll reboot.
yes
srs from freecharts
Posted by kurzweg on 17th of Jul 2009 at 09:10 am
would be nice to get that fixed ASAP
Roubini clarification
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 06:45 pm
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/257299
one more SRS decay study
SRS
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 06:14 pm
I used Yahoo "adjusted close" numbers (not sure why they needed to be adjusted; maybe a dividend was paid). Anyway, Looked at 1/2/09 to 2/2/09. During that month SRS went from 53.23 to 58.30, a gain of 9.5% while IYR went from 34.88 to 30.38, a decline of 12.9%.
That, obviously, is not good correlation. Looks like the relationship may only hold for a week or two.
SRS decay
SRS
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 05:55 pm
The best way to answer that question is to manually look at some specific scenarios comparing SRS to IYR, as SRS moves 2x inverse to IYR. From 3.6.09 IYR went from 22.21 to 32.92, a 48% increase. During the same dates SRS went from 99.32 to 18.60, a decline of 81%. To me, that timeframe looks reasonably valid.
However, on 11/21/08 SRS closed at 200.37 while IYR was 27.30. Obviously that time frame compared to now is totally whacky.
I need to do more work to get a definitive answer (I've wondered the same thing) but my guess is the 2:1 relationship holds for weeks and maybe a couple of months but after that it really breaks down.
Matt - Stochastics
SPX 30 min chart comments
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 04:01 pm
Thanks for the note on Stochastics. Gave me the nudge to hit the buy button on SRS. Man, if we aren't overbought here.....
2,000 shares SRS at 18.52
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 03:54 pm
Now I have a reason to get up in the morning!
I want to buy SRS when
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 03:48 pm
IYR hits 33.21. That is its 200 day and it should get turned back there.
looks like
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 03:42 pm
MY SRS puke i've been waiting for all week is coming. Hope I have the guts to buy.
IBM GOOG
IBM / GOOG
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 03:40 pm
And when haven't THEY? Seriously. They just don't miss. IBM invented cookie jar accounting.
expected Revenue
Trader Tax
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 03:21 pm
from the Trader Tax is $400 Billion annually. Of course in typical government fashion, they assume the same amount of trading will take place which of course it won't. If you guys look at last year's Broker Statement and do the Math I think you'll be shocked. I was.
Trader Tax
Trader Tax
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 03:14 pm
would be .25% (quarter of 1 percent) of the total value TRADED, Buys and Sells (not your profit). Last year my Trader Tax would have come to $57,000, taking a significant part of my profits. I will quit trading if it passes.
Marcy Kaptur
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 02:45 pm
fyi, she is FOR the TRADER TAX. I've had heated email exchanges with her. I'm not in her district as I'm south of her.
And while I enjoyed Paulson's grilling, doesn't change the fact she is an idiot.
alternative toshorting SRS
SRS 15 min system
Posted by kurzweg on 16th of Jul 2009 at 02:35 pm
For those that may not know, since SRS is a double inverse of IYR, if you want to short SRS but cannot locate the shares, you can buy IYR. Just remember SRS is 2X IYR.