This daily chart of the S&P 500 should be familiar to regular readers. It is our Wyckoffian record of market structure going back to the bull market peak of 2021. It is a real-time journal of our Wyckoff Analysis through the Distribution Structure, the Markdown, the Accumulation Phase of 2022-23 and now the Markup. The Markup finally exceeded the rangebound condition of the Accumulation with the advance that began in October of '23. We had been making the case for the unfolding Accumulation here and in the Wyckoff Market Discussions (every Wednesday with Roman Bogomazov) throughout the Accumulation period.

Recently the S&P 500 climbed above the well defined Markup channel into a Throwover and OverBought condition. This OverBought / ThrowOver has arrived as the First Quarter was coming to a conclusion. Thus suggesting ‘Window Dressing' shenanigans by institutional types. Often strong trends in the indexes (both upwards and downwards) can follow through and persist for a few weeks into the new quarter. We will watch for a change of character in the behavior of the indexes in the Second Quarter. An example of this would be a reversal of the S&P 500 back into the upward striding Trend Channel. A sudden and sharp break back into the channel would be labeled an Automatic Reaction (AR) and would represent an important confirmation of the upward trend exhaustion. Until such an event the upward trend must be respected. 

We expect the upward stride of a Markup phase to be broad and strong and such is the case here. Recall that Accumulation is a zone of deepening pessimism where the public and institutions become progressively more cautious. Such caution manifests as portfolio defensiveness (higher levels of cash, lower beta stocks and more bond type assets). Meanwhile the ‘Composite Operator' types are absorbing stocks with good growth and value features for the next bull market. This puts stocks in very strong hands. This Supply to Demand imbalance can result in stock indexes launching higher following the preparation phase of Accumulation. As Accumulation concludes broad pessimism is observed in the extreme pessimism readings of various sentiment gauges (which were profiled in Power Charting and on WMD at the time). 

Love this chart and on the STS making it easy to follow along. 

ANF breaking on Matt's chart.  

NVDS added. thx for constant updates Matt

arkk short. 

FED in  nutshell..........

2020: 'Not even thinking about thinking about raising rates'
2023: 'Forget about rate cuts'

WFC looks to be breaking/rolling over.......

setting up again

META wont crack, time to cover my puts depending on how it closes....(june500P)

Morning stock news 
CXM Reported better than expected EPS on stronger revenues; guidance mixed.
DOOO Reported weaker than expected EPS on weaker revenues; lowered guidance.
FUL Reported better than expected EPS on weaker revenues; reaffirmed guidance.
GOOGL Company says it will provide travel and trip recommendations using generative AI.
HD Announces deal to acquire SRS Distribution for $18.3 bln.
JEF Reported better than expected EPS on stronger revenues.
MLKN Reported better than expected EPS on weaker revenues; lowered guidance.
MSM Reported better than expected EPS on weaker revenues.
RH Reported weaker than expected EPS on weaker revenues; raised full-year sales guidance.
WBA Reported better than expected EPS on stronger revenues; guided inline.

speaking of, XBI new long on daily kiss. nice r/r too

NVDS is 1.25% leverage. NVDD is regular. 

Hershey (HSY)– To no one’s surprise, the price of cocoa’s recent ascent is obviously a big area of concern for shares of Hershey. But what is driving the increase? As RBC Capital analyst Nik Modi explains, in the near-term, production in West Africa has been plagued by several consecutive years of weather-related challenges, reducing crop yields and production. This year, several months of wet weather have disrupted production and also led to the spread of black pod disease and swollen shoot virus (excess rain can knock flowers off before they bud, and fosters infections). Furthermore, local trade dynamics between farmers, dealers, processors, and local governments have put supply at additional risk. Typically, forward contracts are arranged roughly a year in advance, but the uncertain supply outlook is limiting forward contracts this year. Hershey's management understands the aforementioned dynamics in the cocoa market and was hedged below the market coming into 2024. It was reiterated that they have good visibility into cocoa costs this year. However, during their store tours, management did also acknowledge that cocoa will be a headwind in 2025, but where prices actually go is a wait and see based on the productivity of the next cocoa crop and outcome of the EU deforestation law. Lastly, while government reports from the Ivory Coast show production down ~30% Y/Y, RBC believes that the reported number could be lower (i.e. not as bad)as there is likely a portion of the supply that gets smuggled out to other countries where farmers do not have price locks and can take advantage of the elevated market prices.

CNXC Reported weaker than expected EPS on stronger revenues; lowered guidance.
GME Reported weaker than expected EPS on weaker revenues.
KMB Reaffirmed full year outlook for 2024 ahead of investor day.
LLY Bloomberg reports that supplies of Zepbound are on backorder.
MRK Receives FDA approval for Winrevair to treat certain rare forms of high blood pressure.
NCNO Reported better than expected EPS on weaker revenues; raised EPS guidance.
NIO Lowered Q1 delivery outlook from a range of 31K to 33K down to 30K.
PRGS Reported better than expected EPS on stronger revenues; lowered Q2 guidance.
UNF Reported weaker than expected EPS on stronger revenues; lowered guidance.

where can i get this info on 1 screen? thx

setting up as a short again i'd argue 

nice rebound from friday. long sept 50c

GLASF -
Lowest cost cultivator with exponential production growth
Competition in California has stabilized
Federal policy is becoming more cannabis-friendly