its about time you graduated High School !
. we shall all be looking
forward to your posting some wonderful trades over the next four
years as you now have the privelege of paying for college (I can
feel your pain
). great to see him accomplish this task.
another milestone passes...good trading
this wedge should be affected by todays 10yr UST auction which
should go more or less ok, but not to rescue this market. It's
tomorrow's 30yr auction that should be a mess. dealers don't want
the inventory, so that should push TLT down to your lower wedge.
should be an interesting opportunity. I will be focusing on
shorting 'in' and/or 'at' the money puts (weeklies) late
thursday or early friday morning, so i'm very interested in
this discussion.
good trading.
just wanted to say thanks for the heads up on this one. it was a
perfect opportunity to sell my long position for kids College
expense funding! i've held it enough years. good trading
they filed a form 12b-5 this morning, stating that: ' form 10k
for 12/31/14 plus audited financial statement will be delayed, but
is anticipated to be filed on or before the 15th calendar day
following the prescribed due date of the form 10k' (whenever that
is)
silly me, I did a quick check of their financials. no income for
2 and 3rd Q 2014, have not posted 4q 2014. the only way they make
payroll (and they do pay well) is to either sell stock or borrow.
their entire company and then some is made up of goodwill. I will
cheer from the sidelines. I wonder if the stock price could go
negative? once upon a time people in Europe thought interest rates
could never go negative.
for those of you who might be keeping track. this one didn't
work out as planned. I took the first and then a second position
(waited until it fell to 5.30 before I sold some more jan 6 puts @
$.70). got stuck with them of course (assigned). until today. just
unloaded @ average price ~$6.25. took an extra month and change to
unload, but the ROR for the period still more than met my
objectives. good trading. will post when I try again. Haz
with one of the foremost authorities of 'game theory' at the
bargaining table on the Greek side, does one really think that the
EU officials at the table really have any idea of what they are up
against? it will be a fascinating study in reality to see
what comes of these meetings. we all know the bottom line is that
Greece could leave the euro (the infamous: 'grexit'), re-instate
the Drachma and imho be much better off (there will of course be a
very quick sharp re-valuation of Greek assets - aka cheap
vacations). Greece just has to leave behind all the government euro
debt (or threaten to) when they leave to really rattle the powers
that be. the ECB's move to add yet more liquidity to the government
debt markets via QE, will force euro yields ever lower and fuel a
bigger move in risk assets. the questions that remain for us
traders: does this include oil and gold? I expect even more market
volatility in the weeks ahead. good trading, and fwiw: don't get
'married' to any positions just yet. stare at the charts and let
BPT guide the way!
..."A
bright spot to highlight which may be a change of character for the
market is
the positive Seasonality of Energy during the month of
February. This is historically the best month for the
debilitated sector. The daily trading seasonal cycle of WTI shows
the commodity has a tendency to move higher starting mid-February.
While we are not calling for the bottom in energy we acknowledge
the positive seasonal tailwinds at work."'''
courtesy of FBN Technical Research
great charts, have that weekly too (learned it from
BPT) and monthly all look bullish. thinking that
hatefalseweights $3.61 target might be a place to take a little off
the table. thanks for posting.
BPT trade idea from 1/7. i took the trade earlier (going long
instead of selling puts per my normal trading) and liked BPT
supporting the trade . we are rapidly approaching my original
target exit price of ~3.50. coming up on decision
time whether to 'hold em or fold em'.
. while i could take some off the
table, i was thinking there could be quite a bit more room based on
the charts, the silver market and the decline in oil prices
which should boost earnings for the company. a little help here
would be appreciated. thanks. good trading.
looks like Draghi will propose 1.1 TRILLION euros (1.3 Trillion
US). buying 50 billion euros per month for balance of year 2015 AND
2016 from 3/1/15. this is above minimum expections of 500 billion
euros and desired level of 1 trillion euros. this will expand the
ECB's balance sheet by 50% in that time period, higher than highest
levels of several years ago. that's all proposal, but what passes
is possibly another story, let alone what will be bought and buy
whom (sovereign debt vs corporate debt) and (individual country
central bank or ECB). makes for good drama. bottom line, more fuel
to the fire. with negative bond yields, portfolio managers who need
positive yields of AA rated paper or better will buy US. leaves
lots of cash left over for stocks too. good trading.
I know, back with this trade and again i'm talking my book. Sold
some 1/17/15 - 6 strike puts @ $0.25 (yup expire next week). from a
fundamental perspective they have over $5 per share in cash and
investments. quarterly burn rate is less than $10 million
which means they have ~20
quartersof cash burn on the books. they have a
request in for drug approval with the EU, although not having
any luck with the US. i can't see getting into much
trouble if i own it @ $5.75 next week. . feel free to hop aboard.
.good trading
IB - family and friends, will have to check out that concept. i
use Fidelity. they have 'special' deals (either free trades or
Frequent flyer miles or cash), but you have to check with them
annually through the active trader desk. you can have ~100 (or more
depending on the money you deposit there each time - have to leave
it with them for 1 yr) of free trades (you have to 'negotiate' for
the period of time - i have 1 year) currently free trading works
for up to 20 option contracts per execution (used to be ~ 27,
so i will have to negotiate that next year). depending on who you
'work with' that can be for one account or one user (across several
accounts). they wouldn't give me a deal for a 3rd year running, so
i put my wife on the phone and they gave her the deal. (same
account go figure). still saving 7.95 base plus .75 per contract.
we saved over $2k last year in commissions. good trading. Haz
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Congrats
HS Graduation Photo Last Night
Posted by hazbin1 on 29th of May 2015 at 09:57 am
Steve,
its about time you graduated High School ! . we shall all be looking forward to your posting some wonderful trades over the next four years as you now have the privelege of paying for college (I can feel your pain ). great to see him accomplish this task. another milestone passes...good trading
TLT update
TLT 30 min
Posted by hazbin1 on 15th of May 2015 at 10:25 am
sadly i got piggy, not by much, but enough to miss the trade after the results of the 30yr auction yesterday afternoon. on to the next. good trading.
monitoring TLT closely
TLT 30 min
Posted by hazbin1 on 13th of May 2015 at 12:24 pm
this wedge should be affected by todays 10yr UST auction which should go more or less ok, but not to rescue this market. It's tomorrow's 30yr auction that should be a mess. dealers don't want the inventory, so that should push TLT down to your lower wedge. should be an interesting opportunity. I will be focusing on shorting 'in' and/or 'at' the money puts (weeklies) late thursday or early friday morning, so i'm very interested in this discussion. good trading.
msft
MSFT sold my puts at.95 this a.m. at opening
Posted by hazbin1 on 29th of Apr 2015 at 10:10 am
rbreese,
just wanted to say thanks for the heads up on this one. it was a perfect opportunity to sell my long position for kids College expense funding! i've held it enough years. good trading
Haz
possible explanation
I'm getting a few questions on SVLT...no changes fundamentally that ...
Posted by hazbin1 on 1st of Apr 2015 at 12:48 pm
they filed a form 12b-5 this morning, stating that: ' form 10k for 12/31/14 plus audited financial statement will be delayed, but is anticipated to be filed on or before the 15th calendar day following the prescribed due date of the form 10k' (whenever that is)
i think lottery tickets have better odds
A Blast from the Past
Posted by hazbin1 on 4th of Mar 2015 at 05:10 pm
silly me, I did a quick check of their financials. no income for 2 and 3rd Q 2014, have not posted 4q 2014. the only way they make payroll (and they do pay well) is to either sell stock or borrow. their entire company and then some is made up of goodwill. I will cheer from the sidelines. I wonder if the stock price could go negative? once upon a time people in Europe thought interest rates could never go negative.
ECYT - redux
ECYT
Posted by hazbin1 on 2nd of Mar 2015 at 01:04 pm
for those of you who might be keeping track. this one didn't work out as planned. I took the first and then a second position (waited until it fell to 5.30 before I sold some more jan 6 puts @ $.70). got stuck with them of course (assigned). until today. just unloaded @ average price ~$6.25. took an extra month and change to unload, but the ROR for the period still more than met my objectives. good trading. will post when I try again. Haz
great minds think alike
JOY
Posted by hazbin1 on 20th of Feb 2015 at 12:24 pm
nice chart, I sold some march 40 puts based on a similar chart the other day. should be good money. good trading
game theory in action
Greece News
Posted by hazbin1 on 16th of Feb 2015 at 01:46 pm
with one of the foremost authorities of 'game theory' at the bargaining table on the Greek side, does one really think that the EU officials at the table really have any idea of what they are up against? it will be a fascinating study in reality to see what comes of these meetings. we all know the bottom line is that Greece could leave the euro (the infamous: 'grexit'), re-instate the Drachma and imho be much better off (there will of course be a very quick sharp re-valuation of Greek assets - aka cheap vacations). Greece just has to leave behind all the government euro debt (or threaten to) when they leave to really rattle the powers that be. the ECB's move to add yet more liquidity to the government debt markets via QE, will force euro yields ever lower and fuel a bigger move in risk assets. the questions that remain for us traders: does this include oil and gold? I expect even more market volatility in the weeks ahead. good trading, and fwiw: don't get 'married' to any positions just yet. stare at the charts and let BPT guide the way!
'Tis the season - for energy complex to bounce
Posted by hazbin1 on 3rd of Feb 2015 at 09:31 am
..."A bright spot to highlight which may be a change of character for the market is the positive Seasonality of Energy during the month of February. This is historically the best month for the debilitated sector. The daily trading seasonal cycle of WTI shows the commodity has a tendency to move higher starting mid-February. While we are not calling for the bottom in energy we acknowledge the positive seasonal tailwinds at work."''' courtesy of FBN Technical Research
ah, the good old days....
Crude Futures first trade /CL, nice entry at just after ...
Posted by hazbin1 on 23rd of Jan 2015 at 09:20 am
...who's country commonly beheads, gives lashings, cuts off hands and feet, and tortures.
HL weekly and monthly
HL
Posted by hazbin1 on 22nd of Jan 2015 at 11:18 am
great charts, have that weekly too (learned it from BPT) and monthly all look bullish. thinking that hatefalseweights $3.61 target might be a place to take a little off the table. thanks for posting.
HL
Posted by hazbin1 on 22nd of Jan 2015 at 10:42 am
BPT trade idea from 1/7. i took the trade earlier (going long instead of selling puts per my normal trading) and liked BPT supporting the trade . we are rapidly approaching my original target exit price of ~3.50. coming up on decision time whether to 'hold em or fold em'. . while i could take some off the table, i was thinking there could be quite a bit more room based on the charts, the silver market and the decline in oil prices which should boost earnings for the company. a little help here would be appreciated. thanks. good trading.
maybe but
FYI - Possible System trades today
Posted by hazbin1 on 21st of Jan 2015 at 02:27 pm
mla, more like grandma Yellen, puppet master.
ECB my understanding
So far Bonds & Gold don't mind the Bloomberg ECB ...
Posted by hazbin1 on 21st of Jan 2015 at 11:20 am
looks like Draghi will propose 1.1 TRILLION euros (1.3 Trillion US). buying 50 billion euros per month for balance of year 2015 AND 2016 from 3/1/15. this is above minimum expections of 500 billion euros and desired level of 1 trillion euros. this will expand the ECB's balance sheet by 50% in that time period, higher than highest levels of several years ago. that's all proposal, but what passes is possibly another story, let alone what will be bought and buy whom (sovereign debt vs corporate debt) and (individual country central bank or ECB). makes for good drama. bottom line, more fuel to the fire. with negative bond yields, portfolio managers who need positive yields of AA rated paper or better will buy US. leaves lots of cash left over for stocks too. good trading.
ECYT
Posted by hazbin1 on 8th of Jan 2015 at 10:18 am
I know, back with this trade and again i'm talking my book. Sold some 1/17/15 - 6 strike puts @ $0.25 (yup expire next week). from a fundamental perspective they have over $5 per share in cash and investments. quarterly burn rate is less than $10 million which means they have ~20 quartersof cash burn on the books. they have a request in for drug approval with the EU, although not having any luck with the US. i can't see getting into much trouble if i own it @ $5.75 next week. . feel free to hop aboard. .good trading
Commission costs
2015 GDXJ Model Portfolio - SOLD NAKED 2 DAY 40 GDX 19.5 PUTS 22C AT 19.83
Posted by hazbin1 on 7th of Jan 2015 at 12:17 pm
IB - family and friends, will have to check out that concept. i use Fidelity. they have 'special' deals (either free trades or Frequent flyer miles or cash), but you have to check with them annually through the active trader desk. you can have ~100 (or more depending on the money you deposit there each time - have to leave it with them for 1 yr) of free trades (you have to 'negotiate' for the period of time - i have 1 year) currently free trading works for up to 20 option contracts per execution (used to be ~ 27, so i will have to negotiate that next year). depending on who you 'work with' that can be for one account or one user (across several accounts). they wouldn't give me a deal for a 3rd year running, so i put my wife on the phone and they gave her the deal. (same account go figure). still saving 7.95 base plus .75 per contract. we saved over $2k last year in commissions. good trading. Haz