The chart for rates would reflect rates heading toward 5% as well after this pullback per Katie Stockton who did a piece on it the other day. We will know when we know and happy to take advantage if it goes there. Fine no matter where it goes either way. On the other side there are some who think investing in a bit more duration makes sense here, like going up from  4 or 8 week bills to 17 week to secure higher rates for example. Not a  long horizon, though makes the point. That is why I just ladder, don't have to guess and I get to participate either way in a substantial way. 

that makes sense, thanks for sharing

My style is to take some long near the lows premarket, nothing scale/size wise until I see what is going on when the cash market opens. Unless things are really extended then I will consider otherwise. As I noted, I'm hedged as I bought inventory for that when prices were very good on the run to 4,020s the other day. 

Possible supports are either that 3,930s area or the 9 day. Will see if the 8:30 numbers make any difference or not direction wise. This market basically moves overnight now some days, imagine it still may be tough with opex. It can get  harder for indexes during these weeks. Knowing all that, there is still price action so I don't get too caught up with projections, though aware of possibilities. 

Yesterday was a good day to focus on the short trade for semis and had a great day there. I didn't stay though as the NVDA report was coming out and the market was still in a range for a potential bullish continuation. I'm big on limiting my risk around events and reports like that. 

Sometimes I'll limp in just to track where things are like this morning. Once I have the right risk/reward, I'll increase positioning. I'd be interested to hear more on your strategy as well. Looks like you do a lot of daytrades from the posts on NQ. 

SPX opening a new gap currently at 3,958.79, yesterday's close. Opportunity to buy off support here for a trade (which I'm doing) to fill the gap as a first target. Another gap above as well at 3,991 from the previous day. 

First gap below at 3,748. I still have some hedge on from buying a few days back at $19.38 SPXS, trading this morning near $21 so I sold some and kept some there. 

Crypto news..

Grayscale reaffirms assets:

  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/grayscale-investments-reaffirms-safety-security-184500778.html

STAMFORD, Conn., Nov. 16, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Grayscale Investments®, the world’s largest digital currency asset manager, today reaffirmed that the safety...

Took my whole SOXS trade off in $36s. Heck of a day, no clue what happens on earnings. One of my rules is to not play earnings or economic reports. 

XLP gap filled up in the $74.20s

SPX new gap at 3,991.73  (yesterday's close). 

Steve, heck of a job on the charting and specific areas/instruments you are looking at. Much appreciated. Really helps me define my plan. 

SMH one to look at for a short on a trigger, found resistance at the 200 day yesterday and overbought territory: https://schrts.co/VMsFQsQr 

The 200 day was my personal trigger for it, to each is own on these things

Just listening to the newsletter, hearing Steve is on it too, good to know I'm in good company 

Josh Brown, the market is now trying to look forward to 2023:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/11/15/the-market-is-now-trying-to-look-forward-to-2023-says-ritholtz-ceo-josh-brown.html

I'm sure you saw this today, Buffet's new semiconductor stake: https://fortune.com/2022/11/15/tsmc-shares-soar-warren-buffett-rarely-invests-tech-stocks-buys-5-billion-stake/

SPXS $19.65 to $20.65 on my short from this morning, gap has filled at 3,957 as I was looking for. 92% of gaps fill, one of my core trading/investing tools. I still have some in my other account in case this has some reversion to mean legs. 

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-mercedes-evs-ranked-worst-annual-reliability-survey-by-consumer-reports-2022-11-15/

I believe it said Lexus

Tesla, Mercedes EVs ranked worst in annual reliability survey by Consumer Reports-Reuters

BlackRock isn’t sold on a soft landing even after a lighter CPI print:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3908048-blackrock-isnt-sold-on-a-soft-landing-even-with-a-soft-cpi-print

He did last week, correct. He also commented that he believed we would retest the lows at some point, though didn't provide a timeframe, which is understandable. 

I had bull horn hats for you and Steve to celebrate that great rally we all participated in through August, though I never heard back on where to send them   

ARKK https://seekingalpha.com/news/3907938-cathie-wood-purchases-shares-of-the-tumbling-grayscale-bitcoin-trust

GBTC closed at $8.95 yesterday, nav is $14.87 per share: https://grayscale.com/products/grayscale-bitcoin-trust/

I own a small amount of GDLC (Large Cap Crypto Fund) down here for tracking purposes/possible future investment consideration. A position I established with profits from other trades (paid for position). It owns mostly Bitcoin and Ethereum, though has a few others, also a big discount to NAV: https://grayscale.com/products/grayscale-digital-large-cap-fund/

Should hear some preliminary arguments soon on Greyscale's court case with the SEC. If the space survives, then the outcome could be a possible mark to market on the funds, making them etfs. Very speculative of course, though my kinda risk/reward for these situations. Even if that doesn't happen, just wait for the assets to come back in season and get marked up. I normally wouldn't bother, though having a large cap closed ended fund at this type of discount is appealing. Fits my style and tolerances long term. Kinda fun too to play but not be concerned about outcomes. 

Even the 5 day is a little below 3,900 now. https://schrts.co/gHfwSjti

Just updated now showing as 3,934