My previous post on affirmation of the assets. Still speculative because crypto is in general, I own some GDLC, large cap crypto fund,  same company, Grayscale. I took a paid for position with trading profits from other trades. 

SPX the window continues to close for those hoping for some significant year end decline. 

They got em' short in the hole and used to being able to win all year that way. Lots of recency bias mixed with perma sentiment by those insisting it has to decline.

The message of the market has changed the last months. And again today the trend remains bullish til its not. Show me evidence the rally is over, not predictions of future doom. 

That being said there is risk to the downside via two gaps at 3,748 and 3,583. I respect that risk possibility as 92% of gaps fill. The timing is the tough part.

Next gap above at 4,110. Then 4,228 after that.

The rally since my 3,500 reversal call is now up about 16% even unleveraged on SPX. 

Staying open minded as always though won't change my mandate unless I see a reason to. Facts are facts. 

I'll be reviewing things when the market is closed as usual to judge my indicators, resistances, and gaps, etc. I'm on the lookout for my "I can't believe it got here" readings for possible long term inventory sales. My previous ones were at 4,800s, 4,600s, and most recently 4,300s. I'm stoic in my execution and don't wake up excited either way. It just is what it is, when it is.

Good soccer game going on , Argentina up 2-0 vs. Poland. 

4,026 filled

SPX 4,026 first gap fill area, then 4,110

Rename that system "The Scared Bear 2.0" haha

GDLC -Large Cap Cryto Fund, used some trading profits and bought a cost average amount at $5.10 this morning. 

NAV of this closed ended fund was $10.18 as of yesterday's close. 

https://grayscale.com/products/grayscale-digital-large-cap-fund/

Very speculative which is why I opt to do a paid for position. 

SPX 3,991.73 gap still open on the cash above. First gap below at 3,946.56 (yesterday's close).

Gaps help manage risk and provide trading opportunities. Trading journal entry from 11/18/22..

There is a new gap opening up at 3,946.56 (yesterday's close). Also still below are 3,748 and 3,583, a long way down from here and notable. On the upside, 4,110 is the first gap. No idea on timing, though the gaps have kept me out of trouble for decades in markets. They keep my mind open. 

Knowing those gaps are below, in my style, I'll be selling that resistance into 3,990s. I was buying yesterday on support at the 9 day 3,906-10 (area) when there was still a gap above to fill at 3,958s. It overshot that by a good bit providing a very good risk/reward and defined plan entry and exit wise. No idea where the market goes and when, all I can ask for is a great risk/reward chance to enter/exit a trade. 

Sometimes there isn't a trade and I don't have to be in one all the time. The coming week will be a great example, better to spend the days with family over Thanksgiving than in the market. Time is limited and the most valuable resource. I'm investing in my priorities. 

SPX as we approach the 4,000 area again on the index, it is a 14%+ rally since the 3,500. A great percentage move in a short time for the index. Keeping an open mind is important as risk/reward can occur on either side in several markets. 

The next significant area to consider is the 200 day moving average test, currently at 4,070 and be aware of the 4,110 overshoot possibility (gap fill area) and how the market reacts if/when we get there. Will continue to monitor/adjust day to day of course, though very interested in playing those kinds of situations, the major inflection points where there is it more likely to get a great opportunity that I can swing. RSI and other factors will be important for me if those levels come as well. I'd like to see my "I can't believe it got here" readings as markets come into a major supply zone. Have a great Friday trading everyone!

Earnings update: A lot of premarket movers big upside this morning so far FL, JD, GPS, ROST, PANW, AMAT, and FTCH. Only saw one down out of all the reports so far.  

Thanks Steve, I didn't receive an email as I normally do for the newsletter last evening. Have a great Friday.

3,958.79 easily achieved and more this morning. Nice $ buying off support yesterday at the 9 day as I discussed.

T Bill auction results, investment rates:

16 day-3.859%

4 week-3.859%

8 week-4.101%

Gap fill is at 3,958.79

SPX the 9 day ended up being support near to the nose so far

Great trading Fred! 

Don't be too hard on yourself man. It is always easy to say after the fact. You managed your risk after a great day short. If that was your plan, it is success. Could have just as easily turned out the other way. 

You got some wind in your sails with the market having a little downside again. Time to rename the website "Bearpoint" Trades  Good to have a little fun as we all use whatever works for us. 

Never seen ‘such a complete failure’ of corporate controls, says new FTX CEO who also oversaw Enron bankruptcy:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/17/ftx-ceo-shreds-bankman-fried-never-seen-such-a-failure-of-controls-.html

Nice call Steve, I'm perking up now for a long trade, looking for entry in pieces. I usually don't get all my pieces, though that is a good thing. Lets see.