dd, RTH is 1/5 walmart, and walmart seems like a rising wedge, and 1/10 HD, which looks like 5 waves up colmplete

just thought I would mention it

I think I owe it to these guys to eat at their restaurants

nice lat hour gift they give

Roger Ehrenberg is out with a  pieceover on his site, Information Arbitrage. discussing the tough times facing hedge funds and the simple root of the cause. Here's an excerpt:

"Many recent mega-losses aren't the case of simply taking the long view and getting stung by short-term volatility; this is getting carried out because of either too much leverage (the most prevalent cause of failure) or too much concentration. I had always thought that hedge funds were supposed to hedge, and were designed to generate attractive absolute returns regardless of market conditions. Such thinking is clearly a remnant of bygone days for much of the industry, where managers want the best of all worlds: stable management fees, quarterly performance fees, and the ability to suspend redemptions. There just aren't that many Steinhardts and Robertsons any more. And this is too bad for the industry and its investors."

commodity index investors pulled $39Billion worth of oil futures between July and Sept. 2

Vow!, that's some country's budget

now, you are quoting my favorite book. The first copy I bought has been thumbed so much it is ripped and dirty, so I just bought a 2nd copy to have something clean and shapely on book shelf :-)

mistake of my senses, I am sorry. In truth, one, IMHO, should not think in tyerms of whether he can take a hit or not, one should run as fast as humanly possible, I am a gold enthusiast, I hate paper, but it wants to drop so we stand aside and wait

I sense some hostile undertone to your message, am I right there?

and, it's good advice, you should give it to those who are now forced to liquidate, I am short gold, and shoprt GDX, and enjoying it at the moment

that's the thing, though, they are big, they can afford the whipsaws, most of them create the whipsaw, but someone with a 100k portfolio, 30% in gold, well that's a different story,

You see, last round they said there was a mad dash to buy the metal from dealers, and dealrers ran out, and all sorts of reported madness, people were bidding coins on EBay with crazy premiums, thta is either too many well informed billions of people, or retail thinking they finally got a chance, neither is good for the metal.

Wonder if people are rushing to buy silver now, heck is almost a buck cheper, time to buy is when you friend or neigbor goes out to sell his metal, when EBay coins get no bid, that, BTW, is my indicator -- the EBaydicator

that's very true, and will make the job of a fundamental analyst very hard, he has to take a lot of economical risk parameters into equation, and I mean a real analyst, not dime-dozen monkeys, with after-the-fact revision that they parade on TV, one reason I have not used my number crunching skill for years,

but let's start with current state of LEH's balance sheet, what are they really worth?

if it is only the measure of worth that one seeks, in times of financial hardship (aka credit-is-tighter-than-a-spy's-lips) a financial company should be evaluated based on its balance sheet, and nothing, nothing else. Not income statement, not dividend ratio, not CNBC, not Paulson, not Jimbo-The-Clown, not Korean overtures, just the balance sheet. Now, take a look at the balance sheet, assuming it is truthful, big assumption, I know, you still get the answer to how much they are worth. The rest is smoke and mirror. Those who shorted Fannie from way back when, knew there were financial problems, just did the math and sat through all the turbulance and came out victorious

FNM....up 50 cents!!...65%
Yesterday: UAUA: H - 12.45  L-*3* C - 10.92
if there were ET creatures watching us, planning an attack and 
occupation, they would can their plans thinking that this planet makes 
it inhabitants go crazy beyond all hopes of mental repair

some may care about the waves from a longer term point of view. I have a core short position that I ahve kept for more than a year, have added bits and pieces here and thre.

I have been shorting WYNN since it topped, have nailed every turn, just by doing the waves. Waves called more decline for cameco, while many letter writers were calling a bottom and a new bull. Waves called a top in GG to the penny.

Trading short term is fine, but it is hard, for many, including me, who are not as good traders as a select few, for us mere mortals, true money is made on longer trends. There are different techniquess in detrmining trends, corrections, and trend changes, I jusrt so happen to use waves

I was hoping scared shorts would give me another entry, but they did not, so I had to re-short, I thought I was done for the day, but this is to good a market today to leave

DRI

If the damn gold stocks would pay decent dividends, like Canadian Oil Sands, I would buy a few for long term accounts, alas, they don't

moksah, only you can answer that, you know the supports, the resistance, oversold/overbought, you need to take that decision based on your risk profile.

matt your posts and timings are priceless!

Oil will go nowhere, IMHO, until US election is over, that's how I have bet and so far, so good

did I not tell you thta Saudis will prevent a cut, and any new indicationg a cut would basically be a pump. There you have it down the chain of all pumps, which started with Pumper-In-Chief, GS, calling 145 earlier

Why are shorts scared into doing strange things?

DRI

shorted at 31.20, covered 90% at 30.20, tight stop, and I may be done for today