and if they lose their jobs and cannot make the payment, what happens to the promise, do they go to jail, will they be given another 100k, 0 coupon bond?

and who pays the value of the bond at maturity? are we assuming that at maturity house prices are higher, lower, unchanged?

this has become so well=behaved a short, I am now having doubts.

Tomorrow's earnings AMC, so, anything can happen

DRI

yeah it sounds like JPM and BSC, but at a premium, BAC shareholders must be having a lot of fun with this, price of believing what crooks say, I wonder why GS is not forced to adopt an orphan?

I think maybe it is the quality of the book that mattered, and still matteres, more than what they piy on income statements

if you are still tempted to hang on, dump the shares, book the profit, and play the options for the gamble, just my 2 cents.

Why do I have a feeling that all the side show, besides LEH, is a deliberate attempt at confusing the hell out of all, and then some. Confused minds lose money.

From a bearish point of view, nothing has changed, MER up, MER down, BAC here, BAC there, it's all the same to the bear. I also have a feeling a rate cut is gonna come very soon.

I think there may one very important difference between LEH case and Faniie-freddie, I mean in addition to other factors. A lot of Fannie Freddie paper was owned by China and Russia, I have not heard or read about how big foreign ownership of Lehman's paper is, just a thought

Interesting view, thanks for sharing, 

Given what the Ben-Hankee team had to deal with, wouldn't you agree they have done a heck of a job. They have wounded the commodity bull, managed to slow the financial free fall, sprayed many gold bugs into early exinxtion, have caused short covering rallies in housing and retail -- they have bought a lot of time.

I think they have proved themselves better connected and more imaginitive than many other players in the market. They realized the fault line of hedgies: leverage, and inadequate risk management, and pushed them over, and with that went commodities, and most important of all, future inflation expectations. what took inflation pundits years to build (it's all about perception, after all) evaporated in a few weeks.

So far, IMHO, they have been brilliant, like a poker player who stays in the game on a constant stream of extremely bad hands.

End result may still be the dire conclusion of a bear market, but they are very clever players.

yes, I remember he said once gold were the only things that worked, and GDX looked like an ending diagonal, it was a beautiful short, but he was not alone, a more respected pundit, David Fry, issued a buy to his clients on GDX right then, I guess some times people misinterpret charts

that is very true about AEM, also, a lot of their assets are in Canada, Finland, Mexico, and US, compared that to whateverstan, or tin-pot-dictator-lands many gold miners mine, and no wonder AEM is an institutional darling, on the flip side, when they miss, they melt because every institution dumps.

I have been using it as a leading indicator for the group, now, the trick is, to rotate some money out of AEM into laggards if this move is has some legs left beyond opyion day next week

this is becoming too predictable, something's gonna give soon

DRI

Triangles and impulses - 2 more different things- this was a 5 wave impulse, looks no more like a triangle than a horse

next time when you ask a wave question, be more specific about beginning and end prices, so that one knows what it is you are talking about, just asking if a correction can have 5 waves is very generic and hence the generic answer

and nasdaq rolled over a few days ago

not a Sunday announcement this time?

why do people ask questions without first doing the study? what strenght, take a look at up volume/down volume, compare it to a couple of down days ago, and tell me if you see strength. take a look at new lows/new highs/total issues, and show me strength. take a look at summation index and show me strength

just because in the last 5 minutes shorts cover, that does not consitute strength.

a cancer patient having a good day running the 100m run is not strength.

until internals of the market improve, any talk of strength is ridiculous 

if you are asking if EW corrections can consist of 5 wave only, yes they can, and that would be a triangle

any proof, published stats, trader data dump, article to substantiate this claim?

The Great Transfer of Wealth is playing out beautifully

small, poorly capitalized regional banks with good customer base will be gobbled up

small, poorly capitalized mining companies with workable mines will be gobbled up

small, poorly capitalized energy plays will be gobbled up

in many sectors, it is a buyer's market, and buyers take their time

_{good point, I think the last round of drop will be about bank takovers and mergers, get them on the cheap.}

Saudis do not want oil to rise at this moment