Posted by billrosen on 21st of Sep 2009 at 12:14 pm
AIG ran up hug this morning, cosolidating on quiet volume
intraday here and in a triangle on the 1 minute chart, it should
move strongly on the break of the triangle...43,85 TL and rising
and 43.85 TL and falling
Posted by billrosen on 18th of Sep 2009 at 01:03 pm
Being a middle level exec for a fortune 500 company for 10
years and being in the back rooms numerous times hearing the
leaders discussing getting rid of this person because they earn too
much, or that person because they are fat and not a good image for
the company, or another person has got to go because they
are getting too old, or another person that has complained
about valid wrong doings by the company cheating its customers
and they need to be fired, just reaffirms what Geroge Carlin
said in that video is dead on. I would bet 99% of big business
could care less if an employee died in a car accident. At my
company the first thought would be to try and hide the insurance
claim so the rates would not go up. Oh yeah, I was part of that
meeting too after that actually happened. I truly believe if a
massive Terrorist attack happened in the USA and would help
profits at the company I worked for, they be orgasmic waiting for
it too happen. That is how wharped the thinking was at my company,
which incidentily trades on the SPX. I remember the quote from A
Few Good Men...God, Unit, Core, Country or something to that
affect...Where I worked, an accurate quote would be...Me,
Team, Division and Company with no mention of country nor
family...I did not know one upper level exec that was not single or
divorced. All about ego, control, power and greed.
News that Deutsche Bank is liquidating the PowerShares DB Crude
Oil Double Long ETN (NYSEArca: DXO) is an ominous development for
commodity exchange-traded products.
It is the first commodity ETP to succumb to heightened
regulatory concerns about the influence that index-based products
have on the commodity marketplace. And it is unlikely to be the
last.
Deutsche Bank has been tight-lipped about the exact reason it is
closing down the exchange-traded note, leaving reporters and
analysts to speculate. Most reports,
such as this generally solid piece by Morningstar’s
Scott Burns, focus on the idea that Deutsche Bank was concerned
about the overall size of its position in the crude oil futures
market.
Burns writes:
“Deutsche Bank is a large player in the commodities sector, and
the CFTC is breathing down everybody's neck about position limits.
It is not improbable that Deutsche Bank looked at all the
business that it conducts using oil futures--including proprietary
trading, hedging for corporate entities, and other bundled
commodity investment products--and realized that the best thing
for itself would be to redeem this note and free up $900
million in new position availability.”
The Commodities Futures Trading Commission is widely expected to
enact new, strict position limits on commodities investors later
this year. Some people expect this to lead to forced divestitures
by large commodity players like Deutsche Bank. Burns seems to think
that Deutsche Bank wanted to get ahead of the curve and cut back on
its positions ahead of these forthcoming regulations.
The real story, however, is both more complicated and important
than that.
Reading The Tea Leaves
DXO was designed to deliver 200% exposure to the Deutsche Bank
Liquid Commodity Index–Oil Index, a managed index of crude oil
futures. As of September 1, it had $425 million in assets. Given
its 2-for-1 exposure, that means it controlled an $850 million
footprint in the crude oil futures space.
When it announced that it was closing the fund, Deutsche Bank
gave the following explanation in its press release:
“Limitations imposed by the exchange on which Deutsche Bank
manages the exposure of the Notes have resulted in a “regulatory
event” as defined in the terms of the Notes, which has caused
Deutsche Bank to redeem the Notes.”
The company declined to comment beyond the press release, but it
didn’t have to. The key phrase is included right there:
“Limitations imposed by the exchange…”
That phrase suggests that it wasn’t vague concerns about CFTC
position limits that led to DXO’s closing; rather, it was a
specific exchange-driven limitation.
The index that DXO tracks is tied to the performance of crude
oil futures listed on the New York Mercantile Exchange. NYMEX,
however, has not imposed any new position limits in the past few
weeks or months. Meanwhile, DXO has been a large product for some
time. In fact, assets are
downthis year, from $585 million to $425 million since
January 1.
If the exchange hasn’t enacted new position limits, and the size
of the fund has actually decreased, why was it forced to close
now?
The answer, I believe, is that the NYMEX has decided to exercise
a discretionary power it has always had, but has rarely used in the
past.
Enforcing Accountability Limits
Many people believe that there are no position limits in place
for energy futures, but that’s not strictly true. While there may
be no federally imposed limit, as outlined in the
NYMEX rule book, the NYMEX has two different
levels of position limits of its own for most commodities,
including crude oil.
On the three days prior to expiration of each contract, NYMEX
places strict position limits on the number of contracts any one
party can hold. Currently, firms are limited to 3,000
contracts or less. There’s no wiggle room here. This is one of many
reasons commodity funds trade out of expiring contracts well ahead
of expiration: When you get down to the last few days, you can only
hold a small number of contracts. The reason is pretty simple—the
exchanges want an orderly unwind of the non-deliverable contracts,
so there’s no panic to find oil tankers or train cars full of
wheat.
Outside of that three-day window, the exchange has what’s called
“accountability limits.” These have wiggle room.
Accountability limits serve as warning bells to the exchange
when a firm has taken a significant position in a given commodity
contract. Currently, for crude oil, those warning bells are set at
10,000 contracts for any single month’s contract or 20,000
contracts across all months. If you assume each contract has
a notional value of about $70,000, that means (on a dollar basis)
the accountability limits are currently set at approximately $700
million (for a single month) and $1.4 billion (across all
months).
When a firm hits an accountability level, it must explain to the
exchange why it is holding such a large position and how it intends
to trade it. The exchange may then ask it to not increase its
position, or even to reduce it.
But here’s the key thing: nobody makes the exchange do anything.
And historically, it has looked the other way.
Posted by billrosen on 16th of Sep 2009 at 01:08 am
I just went to a one day seminar listening to one
man's opinion of the state of the economy and where we are
headed from here. It was very similar to the many thoughts
here on BPT's this a is suckers bear market rally and is very toppy
right now. There were also many comparisons to what is happening in
the USA now with what happened in Japan in 1989 and 20 years later
the Nikkei is nowhere close to 40k...Now for the scary part...the
only difference is the Japanese people save a substantial portion
of their incomes and our fiscally responsible themselves, unlike
the average American who spends more they earn and have a negative
net worth. The personal credit card defaults will be a huge
negative factor for the USA economy moving forward.
Posted by billrosen on 14th of Sep 2009 at 10:58 am
Pdani that was a good link...I love the clip of Hillary
screaming back in 2003 that people protesting have a right to
be heard and are patriotic when they stood up to the Bush
administration and expressed their displeasure and the people
should always be able to protest any administration and their
voices be heard...How quickly they forget their own words. These
tea Parties are only filled with Nazi's, KKK members, Religious
nuts and right wing radical terrorists according to this
administration. Where is Hillary's voice of support for the
protesters now?????????
Posted by billrosen on 13th of Sep 2009 at 10:07 pm
I remember when
the Million Man March took place years ago and it was front page
news for months leading up to the event with massive media
exposure. The Million Man March was supposed to have a million
people, but only about 50% of that number showed up. This past
weekend was the
9-12 Project Tea Party
Marchon the capitol. There was almost no media coverage on this
and many Americans still have no idea what a Tea Party is, much
less that a massive DC protest took place this past weekend. The
limited news that did cover it was buried amongst other stories and
showed very selective photos with statements of “thousands of
protestors”. I was there personally and spoke with the DC Park
Service and Monument Police that monitor these demonstrations. They
said for certain there were over 2 million people and probably
closer to 3 million. The 9-12 Project was expecting about 50,000
and they got about 50 times that amount. Whether you agree or not
with these protests, it is interesting that the media would barely
cover 2 - 3 million Americans marching on the capitol. If millions
marched on DC to protest the Iraq War, Global Warming or really
antyhing else, do you think it would be covered? Here are the
photos…does it look like thousands or millions? You be the
judge.
Matt and Steve and Tom or any others that have input...I went
light and played just 3 picks today, got in at very good prices and
got stopped out on all 3...GNA had a BO of 7.80 and I had a stop at
7.53 below a rising TL and got stopped out, next was MRO had a BO
of 32.37 and I had a stop at 32.08 again below a rising TL and got
stopped out, last was DVN had a BO at 65.60 and I had a stop at
64.95 again below a rising TL...of course all 3 now have rallied
above my stops...I am not just picking any stop, but using good
judgement based on sound TA and I am also not just putting a stop 1
penny below a TL, but giving it some room based on the tails of
previous candles I see intraday. The flipside is, I can loosten my
stops, but then risk taking larger losses. How do you guys base
your decisions on stops? For example on these 3 trades today would
be helpful or Matt could you do a quick educational video when you
have time on proper stop execution? I think correct stops is
something many of us struggle with, I know I do sometimes, and
there is nothing more annoying than seeing a stock run up after
just being stopped out...TIA
Posted by billrosen on 11th of Sep 2009 at 03:26 pm
Can we not just remember this awful day and pay respect to those
killed without throwing out the absurd conspiracy theories?
About 5500 people signed the conspiracy petition from the truthers
website posted. That is 5500 people out of a country of over 300
million people and a world with over 6 billion people...If
just 1% of the 300 million Americans that exist signed it, there
would be 3,000,000 signatures, they have only 5500...that
tells you how many people believe and support the thinking the
terrorists were not the masterminds behind 9-11.
Posted by billrosen on 11th of Sep 2009 at 12:14 pm
I am cutting out early today, but just wanted to post from
favorite image from September 11th, showing some real
heroes, the firefighters raising the American flag in the rubble.
Let us never forget what happened and remember all those
innocent people that were murdered who were just going to
work that day like the rest of us. May the be in a better
place.
Posted by billrosen on 4th of Sep 2009 at 10:23 am
look for a pullback to the BO of the triangle, personally I dont
think it will get there so maybe scale in on dips and don't just
grab full size position at one price
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
just got stopped out of
Posted by billrosen on 21st of Sep 2009 at 02:57 pm
just got stopped out of AIG, looks like some profit taking here
AIG up 5% since triangle
Posted by billrosen on 21st of Sep 2009 at 01:35 pm
AIG up 5% since triangle BO and is now pushing thru previous high of the day, should run for a trade here
AIG broke up from the
Posted by billrosen on 21st of Sep 2009 at 12:40 pm
AIG broke up from the triangle and volume is picking up now, next R would be previous high of the day
AIG ran up hug this
Posted by billrosen on 21st of Sep 2009 at 12:14 pm
AIG ran up hug this morning, cosolidating on quiet volume intraday here and in a triangle on the 1 minute chart, it should move strongly on the break of the triangle...43,85 TL and rising and 43.85 TL and falling
Being a middle level exec for
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYIC0eZYEtI&feature=related. This video has some cuss words in it.
Posted by billrosen on 18th of Sep 2009 at 01:03 pm
Being a middle level exec for a fortune 500 company for 10 years and being in the back rooms numerous times hearing the leaders discussing getting rid of this person because they earn too much, or that person because they are fat and not a good image for the company, or another person has got to go because they are getting too old, or another person that has complained about valid wrong doings by the company cheating its customers and they need to be fired, just reaffirms what Geroge Carlin said in that video is dead on. I would bet 99% of big business could care less if an employee died in a car accident. At my company the first thought would be to try and hide the insurance claim so the rates would not go up. Oh yeah, I was part of that meeting too after that actually happened. I truly believe if a massive Terrorist attack happened in the USA and would help profits at the company I worked for, they be orgasmic waiting for it too happen. That is how wharped the thinking was at my company, which incidentily trades on the SPX. I remember the quote from A Few Good Men...God, Unit, Core, Country or something to that affect...Where I worked, an accurate quote would be...Me, Team, Division and Company with no mention of country nor family...I did not know one upper level exec that was not single or divorced. All about ego, control, power and greed.
Title: Perhaps SRS will be
Posted by billrosen on 17th of Sep 2009 at 09:19 am
News that Deutsche Bank is liquidating the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long ETN (NYSEArca: DXO) is an ominous development for commodity exchange-traded products.
It is the first commodity ETP to succumb to heightened regulatory concerns about the influence that index-based products have on the commodity marketplace. And it is unlikely to be the last.
Deutsche Bank has been tight-lipped about the exact reason it is closing down the exchange-traded note, leaving reporters and analysts to speculate. Most reports, such as this generally solid piece by Morningstar’s Scott Burns, focus on the idea that Deutsche Bank was concerned about the overall size of its position in the crude oil futures market.
Burns writes:
“Deutsche Bank is a large player in the commodities sector, and the CFTC is breathing down everybody's neck about position limits. It is not improbable that Deutsche Bank looked at all the business that it conducts using oil futures--including proprietary trading, hedging for corporate entities, and other bundled commodity investment products--and realized that the best thing for itself would be to redeem this note and free up $900 million in new position availability.”
The Commodities Futures Trading Commission is widely expected to enact new, strict position limits on commodities investors later this year. Some people expect this to lead to forced divestitures by large commodity players like Deutsche Bank. Burns seems to think that Deutsche Bank wanted to get ahead of the curve and cut back on its positions ahead of these forthcoming regulations.
The real story, however, is both more complicated and important than that.
Reading The Tea Leaves
DXO was designed to deliver 200% exposure to the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index–Oil Index, a managed index of crude oil futures. As of September 1, it had $425 million in assets. Given its 2-for-1 exposure, that means it controlled an $850 million footprint in the crude oil futures space.
When it announced that it was closing the fund, Deutsche Bank gave the following explanation in its press release:
“Limitations imposed by the exchange on which Deutsche Bank manages the exposure of the Notes have resulted in a “regulatory event” as defined in the terms of the Notes, which has caused Deutsche Bank to redeem the Notes.”
The company declined to comment beyond the press release, but it didn’t have to. The key phrase is included right there: “Limitations imposed by the exchange…”
That phrase suggests that it wasn’t vague concerns about CFTC position limits that led to DXO’s closing; rather, it was a specific exchange-driven limitation.
The index that DXO tracks is tied to the performance of crude oil futures listed on the New York Mercantile Exchange. NYMEX, however, has not imposed any new position limits in the past few weeks or months. Meanwhile, DXO has been a large product for some time. In fact, assets are downthis year, from $585 million to $425 million since January 1.
If the exchange hasn’t enacted new position limits, and the size of the fund has actually decreased, why was it forced to close now?
The answer, I believe, is that the NYMEX has decided to exercise a discretionary power it has always had, but has rarely used in the past.
Enforcing Accountability Limits
Many people believe that there are no position limits in place for energy futures, but that’s not strictly true. While there may be no federally imposed limit, as outlined in the NYMEX rule book, the NYMEX has two different levels of position limits of its own for most commodities, including crude oil.
On the three days prior to expiration of each contract, NYMEX places strict position limits on the number of contracts any one party can hold. Currently, firms are limited to 3,000 contracts or less. There’s no wiggle room here. This is one of many reasons commodity funds trade out of expiring contracts well ahead of expiration: When you get down to the last few days, you can only hold a small number of contracts. The reason is pretty simple—the exchanges want an orderly unwind of the non-deliverable contracts, so there’s no panic to find oil tankers or train cars full of wheat.
Outside of that three-day window, the exchange has what’s called “accountability limits.” These have wiggle room.
Accountability limits serve as warning bells to the exchange when a firm has taken a significant position in a given commodity contract. Currently, for crude oil, those warning bells are set at 10,000 contracts for any single month’s contract or 20,000 contracts across all months. If you assume each contract has a notional value of about $70,000, that means (on a dollar basis) the accountability limits are currently set at approximately $700 million (for a single month) and $1.4 billion (across all months).
( Position and accountability limits are published here.)
When a firm hits an accountability level, it must explain to the exchange why it is holding such a large position and how it intends to trade it. The exchange may then ask it to not increase its position, or even to reduce it.
But here’s the key thing: nobody makes the exchange do anything. And historically, it has looked the other way.
I just went to a
P2 END DAY TODAY?
Posted by billrosen on 16th of Sep 2009 at 01:08 am
I just went to a one day seminar listening to one man's opinion of the state of the economy and where we are headed from here. It was very similar to the many thoughts here on BPT's this a is suckers bear market rally and is very toppy right now. There were also many comparisons to what is happening in the USA now with what happened in Japan in 1989 and 20 years later the Nikkei is nowhere close to 40k...Now for the scary part...the only difference is the Japanese people save a substantial portion of their incomes and our fiscally responsible themselves, unlike the average American who spends more they earn and have a negative net worth. The personal credit card defaults will be a huge negative factor for the USA economy moving forward.
Pdani that was a good
I remember when the Million Man March took place years ...
Posted by billrosen on 14th of Sep 2009 at 10:58 am
Pdani that was a good link...I love the clip of Hillary screaming back in 2003 that people protesting have a right to be heard and are patriotic when they stood up to the Bush administration and expressed their displeasure and the people should always be able to protest any administration and their voices be heard...How quickly they forget their own words. These tea Parties are only filled with Nazi's, KKK members, Religious nuts and right wing radical terrorists according to this administration. Where is Hillary's voice of support for the protesters now?????????
I second that on a
Swing trading TA
Posted by billrosen on 14th of Sep 2009 at 09:07 am
I second that on a swing trading strategy section on the website!
I remember when the Million Man
Posted by billrosen on 13th of Sep 2009 at 10:07 pm
I remember when the Million Man March took place years ago and it was front page news for months leading up to the event with massive media exposure. The Million Man March was supposed to have a million people, but only about 50% of that number showed up. This past weekend was the 9-12 Project Tea Party March on the capitol. There was almost no media coverage on this and many Americans still have no idea what a Tea Party is, much less that a massive DC protest took place this past weekend. The limited news that did cover it was buried amongst other stories and showed very selective photos with statements of “thousands of protestors”. I was there personally and spoke with the DC Park Service and Monument Police that monitor these demonstrations. They said for certain there were over 2 million people and probably closer to 3 million. The 9-12 Project was expecting about 50,000 and they got about 50 times that amount. Whether you agree or not with these protests, it is interesting that the media would barely cover 2 - 3 million Americans marching on the capitol. If millions marched on DC to protest the Iraq War, Global Warming or really antyhing else, do you think it would be covered? Here are the photos…does it look like thousands or millions? You be the judge.
Title: Question Matt and Steve and
Posted by billrosen on 11th of Sep 2009 at 03:52 pm
Matt and Steve and Tom or any others that have input...I went light and played just 3 picks today, got in at very good prices and got stopped out on all 3...GNA had a BO of 7.80 and I had a stop at 7.53 below a rising TL and got stopped out, next was MRO had a BO of 32.37 and I had a stop at 32.08 again below a rising TL and got stopped out, last was DVN had a BO at 65.60 and I had a stop at 64.95 again below a rising TL...of course all 3 now have rallied above my stops...I am not just picking any stop, but using good judgement based on sound TA and I am also not just putting a stop 1 penny below a TL, but giving it some room based on the tails of previous candles I see intraday. The flipside is, I can loosten my stops, but then risk taking larger losses. How do you guys base your decisions on stops? For example on these 3 trades today would be helpful or Matt could you do a quick educational video when you have time on proper stop execution? I think correct stops is something many of us struggle with, I know I do sometimes, and there is nothing more annoying than seeing a stock run up after just being stopped out...TIA
Can we not just remember
let's see if the picture works this time...
Posted by billrosen on 11th of Sep 2009 at 03:26 pm
Can we not just remember this awful day and pay respect to those killed without throwing out the absurd conspiracy theories? About 5500 people signed the conspiracy petition from the truthers website posted. That is 5500 people out of a country of over 300 million people and a world with over 6 billion people...If just 1% of the 300 million Americans that exist signed it, there would be 3,000,000 signatures, they have only 5500...that tells you how many people believe and support the thinking the terrorists were not the masterminds behind 9-11.
let's see if the picture
Posted by billrosen on 11th of Sep 2009 at 12:17 pm
let's see if the picture works this time...
I am cutting out early
Posted by billrosen on 11th of Sep 2009 at 12:14 pm
I am cutting out early today, but just wanted to post from favorite image from September 11th, showing some real heroes, the firefighters raising the American flag in the rubble. Let us never forget what happened and remember all those innocent people that were murdered who were just going to work that day like the rest of us. May the be in a better place.
CTSH getting close to BO
Posted by billrosen on 8th of Sep 2009 at 11:11 am
CTSH getting close to BO
CDE very close to BO
Posted by billrosen on 4th of Sep 2009 at 01:40 pm
CDE very close to BO 17.40
look for a pullback to
any GDX buyers out there yet?
Posted by billrosen on 4th of Sep 2009 at 10:23 am
look for a pullback to the BO of the triangle, personally I dont think it will get there so maybe scale in on dips and don't just grab full size position at one price
don't forget about ICE as
Posted by billrosen on 4th of Sep 2009 at 09:55 am
don't forget about ICE as a short around 87.00
NSC getting close to 47
Posted by billrosen on 4th of Sep 2009 at 09:44 am
NSC getting close to 47 BO
TQNT BO
Posted by billrosen on 4th of Sep 2009 at 09:36 am
TQNT BO