Posted by billrosen on 6th of Oct 2009 at 10:01 pm
the only thing more outrageous than all this handouts are stupid
acronyms, like ASPIRE for this one, gosh that name is just
so...inspiring to me...how bout we call it FPSOMYA...Fucking
Politicians Stealing Our Money Yet
Again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!What is wrong with these people in
Washington and a better question is why do the people of this
country keep re-electing them???????????????? God this stuff pisses
me off.
Posted by billrosen on 6th of Oct 2009 at 02:25 pm
there is no easy answer with the broken TL dance, but one thing
for sure would be to limit your losses based on a % if nothing
else...remember if you lose 50% on a trade, you have have to have a
100% winning trade to get back to zero. Personally I keep losses
small, usually no more than 3%.
Posted by billrosen on 25th of Sep 2009 at 01:33 pm
Matt one of two things is going to happen with AIG, either the
140ma holds it breaks above 4 day falling TL for a nice trade or
that 140ma fails as support and it sells off hard, either way
something is going to produce a nice trade soon!
Posted by billrosen on 25th of Sep 2009 at 11:41 am
I would not touch it... This would be a good time to short IMO.
I know many people who work there in significant positions, lots of
problems with that company on many levels and morale is very low.
Just look at its performance...Under current leadership in 2001 it
peaked at $55, fell thru the whole bull market of 2003 - 2008 and
has underperformed the SPX in the 6 month rally since March. It is
up on better than expected, yet drastically reduced
wallstreet earnings expectations,
which were still
down 31%from previous year. Also for the first time EVER the
company missed annual profit and revenue growth over the prior year
in FY'09.
Are these kids from North Korea, Venezuela, Iran, China...No,
this video was taken this past Friday Sept 19, 2009 at a grade
school in New Jersey by a kindergarten class teacher.
Posted by billrosen on 25th of Sep 2009 at 09:20 am
Matt do you have any recommended scale outs for the GDX GLC 15
minute ratio system? I know you said you use the ratio triggers
coupled with TA, but was wondering on strong moves like this when
the system is up something like 7% on this current trade, if you
have scale outs like the SRS swing system? I personally sold half
my GDX when it was up 5% and am holding the rest.
Posted by billrosen on 23rd of Sep 2009 at 02:01 pm
just covered my AIG trade at 48.40 for 1% gain ahead of fed,
volume on this intraday BO is not following thru, waiting to see
the reaction, could be great for trading after the fed announcement
this afternoon
Posted by billrosen on 23rd of Sep 2009 at 01:53 pm
AIG just broke out of triangle with some good volume, I took the
trade at 47.88 with a stop at 47.18, will try and unload for a
quick trade ahead of fed
Posted by billrosen on 23rd of Sep 2009 at 09:48 am
Matt...Tom...Steve...Question on the 15 minute GDX/GLD ratio
strategy...it triggered short yesterday which thus far is a losing
trade. It is looking like the TL could be re-drawn and adjusted
slightly indicating the system would be long not short. How does
that get handled in a situation like this where the trade goes
against you, but does not clearly break back thru TL resistence
reversing position long agains, but just rides the TL up like it
has been doing?
Posted by billrosen on 22nd of Sep 2009 at 03:38 pm
did not see the previous posts on AIG from RP, nope not running
the system, discretionary trading it using 3 minute 2 day charts
with TL's and fast speed RSI to support TL entry decisions, I
unfortunately cannot ever find any shares to short so I play the
breakouts not the breakdowns, certainly would have shorted at
around 50.50 when it lost support today...glad you guys made some
$$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!!!
Posted by billrosen on 22nd of Sep 2009 at 03:33 pm
I think with AIG not making a new high today above the previous
55.90 high from August and not just consolidating but getting
destroyed after the gap up today, things do not look good. A ton
of, late to the party, people holding shares right
now...HOPING...for a comeback which I suspect won't happen this
time around.
Posted by billrosen on 22nd of Sep 2009 at 10:47 am
AIG having a nice pullback,
should find support at at 50 from rising TL over last 2 days,
falling TL from today merging with rising TL mentioned, it should
pop either way for a trade
Posted by billrosen on 22nd of Sep 2009 at 10:17 am
yep, you hit it on the head, it is easier to not take some of
the lower paying jobs, even if just temporarily, and just sit home,
play video games and collect endless checks from the
gov't...pathetic
Posted by billrosen on 22nd of Sep 2009 at 09:17 am
AIG, trading about 54.00 pre-market, has resistence at the old
high of 55.90 in Aug and 56.80 in Nov and then is has a falling TL
resistence at about 65'ish, if it breaks that falling
TL, then there is not a whole lot of Resistence until
100...not saying I think it goes there, but interesting to see how
this plays out, especially if we get a climax top in the near
future in the indexes
Despite a few green shoots in the economy and a rocketing stock
market, many large companies are still struggling to avoid
bankruptcy.
A new report by
Audit Integrityidentifies some high-profile names "that have the highest
probability of declaring bankruptcy among publicly traded
firms."
Which companies appear the worst off? We took the list and
removed any company with a market cap under $3 billion. We then
ranked the remaining names by a simple measure of the market's
perceived bankruptcy risk - Market Cap (MC) divided by Enterprise
Value (EV). The less MC vs. EV, the less residual shareholders'
value (above what debt holders can claim) the market is pricing-in
for the company. Thus a lower MC/EV means the market thinks the
company is more likely to go bankrupt.
1. Hertz
When you have tons of debt financing your fleet of cars,
falling rental demand really hurts.
While the company raised new capital in May for some
breathing room, Fitch and Moody’s actually cut their ratings for
the company in July.
Ignoring the downgrade, shares kept rallying and are now at
over five times the March $2 low. Best of luck.
Market Cap (MC)/Enterprise Value (EV) = 32%
2. Textron
What a tough time to be selling business jets.
Textron wrote down $2.3 in its backlog this year after it
cancelled a new jet design, and demand for its other
aircraft-related offerings has plummeted.
Shareholders may be heartened by the company’s ability to
push back some debt maturities lately, but deteriorating credit
quality at the company’s leasing arm makes the outlook uncertain at
best.
This is a huge problem when you have large amounts of
maturing debt over the next few years.
A recent Deutsche Telekom acquisition rumor offered some
hope, but that appears to have faded. Facing a difficult road ahead
on its own, the company better keep its lawyers on
speed-dial.
MC/EV=41%
4. Macy's
Does anyone even shop at department stores anymore?
Same store sales will likely keep falling at Macy’s right
through 2009. With $2.4 billion of maturing debt over the next five
years, the company is trying to cut costs, and has already reduced
its dividend.
Hopefully the US consumer will bounce back soon, and actually
want to shop at Macy's.
MC/EV=47%
5. Mylan
In a classic case of management empire building, Mylan
overpaid big time when it bought Merck’s generic business back in
2007 and is now stuck with $5 billion of long-term debt as a
result.
From 2007 – 2008, the company lost over $1.3 billion very
much due to goodwill write-downs.
While the company could earn $300 million this year, they’ll
have to earn far more than that in the future to make their debt
manageable.
MC/EV=51%
6. Goodyear
Demand for Goodyear tires has sunk, and the company is
saddled with massive debt and pension obligations.
It doesn’t help that The United Steelworkers union prevents
the company from proper cost control by forcing factories to stay
open.
Shareholders have to wonder how much value will be left of
the company after bondholders and the union members have their
way.
MC/EV=53%
7. CBS
Weak advertising and falling license fees have sent CBS's
earnings off a cliff in 2009.
If they remain depressed for too long, the company could have
trouble refinancing $3.2 billion of debt coming due over the next
five years.
It will really come down to whether or not CBS’s earnings
collapse is merely cyclical, or the result of structural trend
whereby traditional TV is dying.
As a business blog, we can't help but feel partly guilty
here.
MC/EV=55%
8. Advanced Micro Devices
When will AMD actually make money again? The question is
becoming more important by the day since it carries over $5 billion
in long-term debt.
After losing almost $3 billion from 2007 – 2008, analysts
expect the company to lose more money in 2009 and 2010.
While the shares rallied from their February $2 low, they
still appear stuck in a long-term down trend from $40 highs way
back in 2006.
MC/EV=55%
9. Las Vegas Sands
Las Vegas Sands over-expanded and over-levered in the last
few years and now has over $10 billion in debt to deal with.
Despite jumping 13 times from their March low, Las Vegas
Sands shares still face an uphill battle.
Conditions in Las Vegas are horrible, Asian expansion isn’t
enough, and if this lasts too long then LVS will end up in
bankruptcy court looking like it bit off more than it can
chew.
MC/EV=60%
10. Interpublic Group
As one of the largest advertising and marketing companies in
the world, IPG was slammed by the global recession.
As the company’s CEO said during recent second quarter
results, the downturn “is proving steeper and more lasting
than expected”.
Revenues have fallen double digits and the company’s exposure
to General Motors as its largest client hasn’t helped.
MC/EV=80%
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
the only thing more outrageous
Cash for Kids??
Posted by billrosen on 6th of Oct 2009 at 10:01 pm
the only thing more outrageous than all this handouts are stupid acronyms, like ASPIRE for this one, gosh that name is just so...inspiring to me...how bout we call it FPSOMYA...Fucking Politicians Stealing Our Money Yet Again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!What is wrong with these people in Washington and a better question is why do the people of this country keep re-electing them???????????????? God this stuff pisses me off.
there is no easy answer
Posted by billrosen on 6th of Oct 2009 at 02:25 pm
there is no easy answer with the broken TL dance, but one thing for sure would be to limit your losses based on a % if nothing else...remember if you lose 50% on a trade, you have have to have a 100% winning trade to get back to zero. Personally I keep losses small, usually no more than 3%.
Matt can you update the
Posted by billrosen on 5th of Oct 2009 at 09:49 am
Matt can you update the GDX / GLD ratio Trendlines on the 15 minute system?...thanks
Title: How Real Estate is
Posted by billrosen on 28th of Sep 2009 at 05:23 pm
Yourself...
Your Buyer....
Your Lender...
Your Appraiser...
And...
Your County's Tax Assessor...
Matt one of two things
Posted by billrosen on 25th of Sep 2009 at 01:33 pm
Matt one of two things is going to happen with AIG, either the 140ma holds it breaks above 4 day falling TL for a nice trade or that 140ma fails as support and it sells off hard, either way something is going to produce a nice trade soon!
I would not touch it...
Naz stock
Posted by billrosen on 25th of Sep 2009 at 11:41 am
I would not touch it... This would be a good time to short IMO. I know many people who work there in significant positions, lots of problems with that company on many levels and morale is very low. Just look at its performance...Under current leadership in 2001 it peaked at $55, fell thru the whole bull market of 2003 - 2008 and has underperformed the SPX in the 6 month rally since March. It is up on better than expected, yet drastically reduced wallstreet earnings expectations, which were still down 31%from previous year. Also for the first time EVER the company missed annual profit and revenue growth over the prior year in FY'09.
Title: Off Topic - School
Posted by billrosen on 25th of Sep 2009 at 10:36 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aqMTD5UFmU
Are these kids from North Korea, Venezuela, Iran, China...No, this video was taken this past Friday Sept 19, 2009 at a grade school in New Jersey by a kindergarten class teacher.
not GLC but GLD (typo)
Matt do you have any recommended scale outs for the ...
Posted by billrosen on 25th of Sep 2009 at 09:20 am
not GLC but GLD (typo)
Matt do you have any
Posted by billrosen on 25th of Sep 2009 at 09:20 am
Matt do you have any recommended scale outs for the GDX GLC 15 minute ratio system? I know you said you use the ratio triggers coupled with TA, but was wondering on strong moves like this when the system is up something like 7% on this current trade, if you have scale outs like the SRS swing system? I personally sold half my GDX when it was up 5% and am holding the rest.
just covered my AIG trade
Posted by billrosen on 23rd of Sep 2009 at 02:01 pm
just covered my AIG trade at 48.40 for 1% gain ahead of fed, volume on this intraday BO is not following thru, waiting to see the reaction, could be great for trading after the fed announcement this afternoon
AIG just broke out of
Posted by billrosen on 23rd of Sep 2009 at 01:53 pm
AIG just broke out of triangle with some good volume, I took the trade at 47.88 with a stop at 47.18, will try and unload for a quick trade ahead of fed
Matt...Tom...Steve...Question on the 15 minute
Posted by billrosen on 23rd of Sep 2009 at 09:48 am
Matt...Tom...Steve...Question on the 15 minute GDX/GLD ratio strategy...it triggered short yesterday which thus far is a losing trade. It is looking like the TL could be re-drawn and adjusted slightly indicating the system would be long not short. How does that get handled in a situation like this where the trade goes against you, but does not clearly break back thru TL resistence reversing position long agains, but just rides the TL up like it has been doing?
just look in the dynamic charts
GDX 15mins chart
Posted by billrosen on 23rd of Sep 2009 at 09:35 am
just look in the dynamic charts link at the top of the page, the chart is there always for your viewing pleasure
did not see the previous
Posted by billrosen on 22nd of Sep 2009 at 03:38 pm
did not see the previous posts on AIG from RP, nope not running the system, discretionary trading it using 3 minute 2 day charts with TL's and fast speed RSI to support TL entry decisions, I unfortunately cannot ever find any shares to short so I play the breakouts not the breakdowns, certainly would have shorted at around 50.50 when it lost support today...glad you guys made some $$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!!!
I think with AIG not
Posted by billrosen on 22nd of Sep 2009 at 03:33 pm
I think with AIG not making a new high today above the previous 55.90 high from August and not just consolidating but getting destroyed after the gap up today, things do not look good. A ton of, late to the party, people holding shares right now...HOPING...for a comeback which I suspect won't happen this time around.
AIG having a nice pullback, should
Posted by billrosen on 22nd of Sep 2009 at 10:47 am
AIG having a nice pullback, should find support at at 50 from rising TL over last 2 days, falling TL from today merging with rising TL mentioned, it should pop either way for a trade
yep, you hit it on
This is unbelievable!!
Posted by billrosen on 22nd of Sep 2009 at 10:17 am
yep, you hit it on the head, it is easier to not take some of the lower paying jobs, even if just temporarily, and just sit home, play video games and collect endless checks from the gov't...pathetic
AIG, trading about 54.00 pre-market,
Posted by billrosen on 22nd of Sep 2009 at 09:17 am
AIG, trading about 54.00 pre-market, has resistence at the old high of 55.90 in Aug and 56.80 in Nov and then is has a falling TL resistence at about 65'ish, if it breaks that falling TL, then there is not a whole lot of Resistence until 100...not saying I think it goes there, but interesting to see how this plays out, especially if we get a climax top in the near future in the indexes
AIG up 11% in premarket
Posted by billrosen on 22nd of Sep 2009 at 09:05 am
AIG up 11% in premarket
Title: More Companies Possibly Going
Posted by billrosen on 22nd of Sep 2009 at 08:03 am
Ten Big Companies That Are Veering Toward Bankruptcy
Posted Sep 18, 2009 12:21pm EDT by Vincent Fernando and Joe Weisenthal in Investing , Media , Products and Trends , RecessionFrom The Business Insider , Sept. 18, 2009:
Despite a few green shoots in the economy and a rocketing stock market, many large companies are still struggling to avoid bankruptcy.
A new report by Audit Integrity identifies some high-profile names "that have the highest probability of declaring bankruptcy among publicly traded firms."
Which companies appear the worst off? We took the list and removed any company with a market cap under $3 billion. We then ranked the remaining names by a simple measure of the market's perceived bankruptcy risk - Market Cap (MC) divided by Enterprise Value (EV). The less MC vs. EV, the less residual shareholders' value (above what debt holders can claim) the market is pricing-in for the company. Thus a lower MC/EV means the market thinks the company is more likely to go bankrupt.
1. Hertz
When you have tons of debt financing your fleet of cars, falling rental demand really hurts.
While the company raised new capital in May for some breathing room, Fitch and Moody’s actually cut their ratings for the company in July.
Ignoring the downgrade, shares kept rallying and are now at over five times the March $2 low. Best of luck.
Market Cap (MC)/Enterprise Value (EV) = 32%
2. Textron
What a tough time to be selling business jets.
Textron wrote down $2.3 in its backlog this year after it cancelled a new jet design, and demand for its other aircraft-related offerings has plummeted.
Shareholders may be heartened by the company’s ability to push back some debt maturities lately, but deteriorating credit quality at the company’s leasing arm makes the outlook uncertain at best.
MC/EV=39%
3. Sprint Nextel
Sprint Nextel is bleeding customers, and could lose as many as 4.4 million net post-paid subscribers this year.
This is a huge problem when you have large amounts of maturing debt over the next few years.
A recent Deutsche Telekom acquisition rumor offered some hope, but that appears to have faded. Facing a difficult road ahead on its own, the company better keep its lawyers on speed-dial.
MC/EV=41%
4. Macy's
Does anyone even shop at department stores anymore?
Same store sales will likely keep falling at Macy’s right through 2009. With $2.4 billion of maturing debt over the next five years, the company is trying to cut costs, and has already reduced its dividend.
Hopefully the US consumer will bounce back soon, and actually want to shop at Macy's.
MC/EV=47%
5. Mylan
In a classic case of management empire building, Mylan overpaid big time when it bought Merck’s generic business back in 2007 and is now stuck with $5 billion of long-term debt as a result.
From 2007 – 2008, the company lost over $1.3 billion very much due to goodwill write-downs.
While the company could earn $300 million this year, they’ll have to earn far more than that in the future to make their debt manageable.
MC/EV=51%
6. Goodyear
Demand for Goodyear tires has sunk, and the company is saddled with massive debt and pension obligations.
It doesn’t help that The United Steelworkers union prevents the company from proper cost control by forcing factories to stay open.
Shareholders have to wonder how much value will be left of the company after bondholders and the union members have their way.
MC/EV=53%
7. CBS
Weak advertising and falling license fees have sent CBS's earnings off a cliff in 2009.
If they remain depressed for too long, the company could have trouble refinancing $3.2 billion of debt coming due over the next five years.
It will really come down to whether or not CBS’s earnings collapse is merely cyclical, or the result of structural trend whereby traditional TV is dying.
As a business blog, we can't help but feel partly guilty here.
MC/EV=55%
8. Advanced Micro Devices
When will AMD actually make money again? The question is becoming more important by the day since it carries over $5 billion in long-term debt.
After losing almost $3 billion from 2007 – 2008, analysts expect the company to lose more money in 2009 and 2010.
While the shares rallied from their February $2 low, they still appear stuck in a long-term down trend from $40 highs way back in 2006.
MC/EV=55%
9. Las Vegas Sands
Las Vegas Sands over-expanded and over-levered in the last few years and now has over $10 billion in debt to deal with.
Despite jumping 13 times from their March low, Las Vegas Sands shares still face an uphill battle.
Conditions in Las Vegas are horrible, Asian expansion isn’t enough, and if this lasts too long then LVS will end up in bankruptcy court looking like it bit off more than it can chew.
MC/EV=60%
10. Interpublic Group
As one of the largest advertising and marketing companies in the world, IPG was slammed by the global recession.
As the company’s CEO said during recent second quarter results, the downturn “is proving steeper and more lasting than expected”.
Revenues have fallen double digits and the company’s exposure to General Motors as its largest client hasn’t helped.
MC/EV=80%