Shouldn't market sentiment be measured by what people actually do (buy or sell), not how they say they feel?  If so, I'd argue that an overwhelming majority of investors have not sold much of anything since the start of the year; therefore sentiment isn't really negative. Watch what I do, not what I say.  Majority have their money in retirement accounts and if anything, have sat tight since the start of the year, as they've been advised to do for the last 15-20 years.  

If that's the situation, how low can "the market" go if those with  retirement accounts ever panic en masse?

Great call by you.  The thing that's really disconcerting about Cathie Wood and her ARK funds is that she's stubborn to a "T", arrogant and rarely if ever admits to being wrong, That's a bad combination for a major fund manager.  

In a recent interview she got defensive and actually claimed she was running a deep "value" fund: "Give us five years, we're running a deep value portfolio".   I wonder if a similar disclaimer is included in the ARK prospectuses?   Most of her funds are already down 50% from their highs and the bear market is just getting under way.

Matt or Steve, With the market poised to take another significant hit at the open and gold up $50+, can you provide some short term thoughts on how the precious metal miners might play out in the short-term.?  They are quite extended yet continue to rise.  Been in quite a # for quite a while, feeling positive for the long term, but gold and silver miners now appear to be overbought on the daily timeframe.  

Been so long since they've made a sustained run.  Does news of the day (Ukraine) dominate the short term picture which continues straight up?  If so, when would the technicals dictate a pullback?

No mention of Nasdaq futures on CNBC.  Is it crashing?

Cathy Wood calls the market irrational as her flagship fund drops another 4%.  Her sentiment only applies on the way down, of course.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/10/ark-innovation-fund-drops-another-4percent-as-cathie-wood-calls-markets-irrational.html

Matt: In last night's newsletter you mentioned you have a position in the inverse ETF for TLT.  Would that be TTT?

Anyone have any clever "last day of the calendar year" angles to look out for?  

Happy New Year to all!

Sorry, I'm not buying it; we are still in greed mode.  Here's why: 

Actions speak louder than words.  Easy to say one is fearful , but if one sits tight with all their investments are they truly fearful?  Majority of $ invested in the market is through retirement accounts.  Overwhelming majority of individuals with retirement accounts are passive, longterm investors who believe stocks go up forever., and rarely sell.  Those accounts remain fully invested or close to it.  

The current selloff is a reflection of active traders and investors who are fearful, but they make up a small % of all money invested in the market.  So if you were to weight the emotions of all investors and traders (including those with retirement accounts), the result is we are still in greed mode.  When retirement plan investors start to liquidate their mutual funds and ETFs, that's when true fear kicks in.   

Any general rule of thumb or suggestions when placing a stop limit order on how large a spread to use when placing a stop limit buy order (assuming you are buying the breakout)?  For stocks under $10.00/share I generally use $0.05, then bump it up to $0.10 for stocks $10.00-$20.00/share., etc.  Is that too tight a range?

Over-priced is an understatement.  When the music stops.....

That said, given the volatility it's a great short-term trading vehicle right now if you're nimble.  Using 5 minute candles yesterday, I scalped 10 points in a few hours after it broke out of a textbook consolidation at $112.50.  

Why would that "NOT"act as support, Matt?  On the weekly, there appears to be a support zone between $0.46-$0.50 going back two years.

And yet Stockcharts.com and other charting services show the "open" at the "IPO" price of $78.00.  What a joke!

Update: They just changed it to reflect a $106 open.

Agree.  Wondering when their advanced automotive fire prevention system will find real interest.  To me that's a game changer.

You called it on the monthly (or weekly) some time ago.  I have URG and DNN; both storming higher.   

Reminds me of a guy I knew at the racetrack years ago.  Decent handicapper; terrible money manager.  Always put everything on the line.  Even on days when he had 5 or 6 winners, unless he won the last race of the day he left the track a loser.  Impossible to give people like that advice.     

Did IBM really spike $5.00 higher earlier today, or is that a mistake on the chart?    Supposedly happened within one 5 minute candle, but there was no volume to support that move, which leads me to believe it's an error.  Anyone know?  Has created an ugly candle on the daily.  Will it be fixed...or perhaps the move was legit?

Just my observation (based upon anecdotal not technical evidence): majority of people with $$$ in the market ("everyone" as is so commonly referred to) are NOT expecting or calling for a serious correction or market crash; rather, they remain extremely complacent.  Overwhelming majority remain at or near fully invested (in retirement accounts +).  Yes, traders are nervous, and rightfully so based upon technicals, but they (we) make up a small % of total market participation.    

Would rather be living in a state where the governor cares about lives than be governed by this ignorant soul: https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/politics/kristi-noem-south-dakota-covid-19/index.html   

Why not take it at the break above the channel of the handle?

Any thoughts on the possibility of a 100% retracement over time?