$NAHL - Chart Link just slowing adding these indicators with descriptions

https://breakpointtrades.com/market_analysis/legacy/?nl_id=3995 

NAHL Nasdaq New Highs-Lows DAILY - plotted as 10 day average long with % Stocks above 200 and 50 day MA's

The NAHL shows the Nasdaq new highs-lows along with the Nasdaq composite for comparison. In this example I'm showing the indicator plotted as the 5 day average to filter out some of the noise. Generally it's a good guide for overall market trend; observer when it's trending above zero (market uptrending) and below zero (market down trending or in a bear market). You can also look for divergences such as positive divergence. I also include plots showing the percentage of stocks above their 200 day and 50 day moving averages. 

PTON - Chart Link- did indeed bounce off that trendline retest- got some there yesterday

LOL arun you've been here forever, you should already know that

curranjohn - again the trade alerts are NOT sent out by Steve and myself, they are not buy and sell signals. For the trade ideas, we try and set alarm prices near a breakpoint such as a trendline or resistance, or support. Just like you have quote list in your broker or trading platform where you place a list of stocks that you are monitoring and you set alarm prices where you want to be alerted. That's all they are is alarms set near prices to alert you to have a look at it. When you se those, don't just buy or sell, look at the chart and see if it makes sense, such as is the volume pumping, how's the price action etc. You don't just see the alarm and buy - you see the alarm and it alerts you to have a look

again these are no substitute for you actually setting your own alerts/alarms on your watchlist as those are real time

see this URL and read
https://breakpointtrades.com/faq/

What are the Pop-Up Alarms in the Trading Community?

Below is an answer that was posted on the Trading Community by Matt.  You can access the direct post on the Trading Community using the Search feature.

Below is an image from the 'Trading Community' Blog from Feb 1st showing a bunch of pop out alarms for our trade ideas from that day.

Apparently there is some confusion as to how these alarms work and why they go off at certain prices, therefore let me to to clarify how it works.  First off Steve and I do not manually send these alerts out, they are preset ahead of time near trendline resistance or breakpoint areas.   We display if we have an alarm set for a Trade Idea as well as what levels we have set on the Watch List page. These alerts work just like the alarms that you can set in your brokerage account.  Also these alarms are NOT buy and sell signals, they are simply alarms to put you on alert you that a breakpoint is approaching and to get your attention.  You should not automatically buy or short a stock based on an alarm, it's simply to alert you that the stock is nearing a breakpoint and to put you on attention to look at it. The alarms work just like the alarms work that you can set in your brokerage account.

The alarms are always set early, below the breakpoint resistance for longs, so that you have time to look at them and react and decide if the stock looks ready to breakout or not, does it have good volume, does it fit your criteria or not.  Again the alarms are not intended for you to just automatically buy or short a stock, it's to alert you to have a look at it, and works just like alarms that you can set in your own brokerage account.

For example, let's say that we have a stock with an breakpoint resistance at 78.3 (see WFM chart below as an example), I might set an alarm to go off at 78.23 or 5 - 10 cents below the resistance.

Also as you know, we often advocate buying the long ideas inside the pattern when there is a good reason to do so, such as the stock has pulled back to some logical support and thus your stop can be really tight, vs waiting for the stock to breakout and you have a higher risk.  The reason I bring this up is because we cannot set alerts for support areas for Longs, we can only set alerts near resistance for Longs, therefore this is why you MUST do your home work ahead of time and NOT totally rely on these alerts.

The most successful way to play our trade ideas is to do some homework on your own, spend 15 min at night or in the morning before the market opens, write some notes down in your trading journal/notebook, such as which ones are your favorites and add notes about support/resistance, and volume.  That way when an alarm or alarms go off intra day, when you see it you are already prepared and you know what the pattern is, and if you like the stock or not!  Basically just like in school, do your homework and study, and you will do well on the tests.  Trading is the same way, if you don't do any homework and watch TV all night, and then come in the market every day unprepared, then when alerts go off, you are like a deer in the headlights.

Steve and I spend all day in here on the blog and these nightly newsletters take us 3 - 4 hrs a night, so we put in a LONG day, we are doing all the hard work for you, all we ask is that you spend 10 - 15 min a day to prepare, and you will see this returned 10 fold back to your accounts!

GEO - Chart Link - one from last week, pulled back off the previous highs, however today backtesting the trendline of the coil, could be a lower risk long in here with a tight stop

I hope everyone has had a nice weekend and enjoy the Superbowl if that's your plan for this evening! Coming into last week the market was quite overbought, and easy guild for this is how wide the moving average ribbons had gotten on the daily charts, and when you see that some reversion to mean is expected. For the week, the Dow Jones lost -0.2%, the SPX lost  -1.1%, the Nasdaq lost -2.4%, and IWM small caps lost -3.4%. 

Last weekthe SPX stalled at a resistance level and has logically pulled back. In the short-term I'm observing what appears to be obvious abc 3-wave like pullback patterns in the SPX and QQQ. I am overall favoring a higher low given the strength of the move up.
Symmetry Observations: The pullback off the highs for the SPX is roughly the same as the largest pullback in mid January i.e. 134 vs 130 points. However, a negativeis that the pullback from the highs on the QQQ has exceeded it's January pullback i.e. 16 points vs 11, this sets up a lower high possibility on the next rally. Should the market ultimately form a higher low and make one more new high, my target area is around the 4300 - 4350 area.

The Dow Joneshas a very obvious symmetrical triangleformation. The Dow Jones lead the indexes last year and I think we will see this area start to outperform again sometime this year - for now monitor this very obvious coil formation. 

Short-termthe SPX has recovered and held the 200 day MA, and has also taken out the year long downtrend line connecting the lower highs (those areas are now support). The next resistance is the 4100 area, which price got within 6 points on Friday. 

From mid February tends to be one of the weaker months from a seasonalit ystandpoint. 

There's a lot of complacency, and a lot of people calling this a new bull market now, even quite a few of our subscribers, and who knows maybe they are right. However, I still think we could be in a longer bear market that lasts for a 2 - 3 years, kind of like the 2000 - late 2002 bear market, and we are in one of those periods where the market is uptrending at the moment. In bear markets you can have periods of 3 - 5 months of uptrends. 

News: CPI on Tuesday is VERY important and the markets reaction to it

The energy area stands out, particularly the OIH. Remember these areas have strong fundamentals. 

The US Dollarhas rallied out of it's wedge and that has placed logical weakness on the precious metals area. Overall I could see the precious metals and GDX needing to complete an ABC 3-wave like consolidationover a period of time before they are ready to head to new highs again

keeping these larger macro comments in place
- We know that a future recession is coming, the question remains how deep will it be
- It's all about future earnings and long-term will direct where the market goes
- Mike Wilson, the famed Morgan Stanley analyst warns that we are going to see an earnings degradation and for the market to eventually head lower again (remember he called the bottom in October) 
- Unfortunately Russia remains a wild card - if they were to attack a western nation or use a nuke - clearly that would have profound market consequences.

again it was a nice trade yesterday and was objective, but profits should have been taken near the 9 EMA - it needs a close above the 9 EMA, not intra day candle wick above it to end that immediate downtrend 

I responded below - it stalled at the 9 EMA, it rallied right to the 9 EMA yesterday, in strong uptrends or downtrends moves back to retest the 9 EMA are normal simple reversion to mean moves and that's what occurred yesterday. In strong uptrends I look to buy pullbacks near the 9 EMA, and in downtrends I sell rallies to the 9 EMA 

quite simply, yesterday it rallied right  to the 9 EMA reversion to mean basically, and found resistance there - the immediate downtrend can't be counted as over until we see a strong close back above the 9 EMA

for DUST the STS would be 10.9, still very wide, there's only been one

otherwise I don't really like in practice using the 3X ETF's for it, UPRO isn't bad and probably one of the best managed 3X ETF's that doesn't degrade that much, but things like DUST and many others, they degrade so badly. 

Remember - these 3X ETF's are designed to give 3X the leverage of SPY for the day, they are rebalanced daily and not intended to give the 3X performance for long periods of time. They are supposed to be short term instruments and hedges, now long term swings

that's also why Steve and I rarely plot anything above a 60 min or 2hr for the 3X ETF's, or at best a short term daily. I see people here plotting 5 and 10 year charts of 3X ETF's and that doesn't make any logical sense - you cannot trust trendlines on those because of the degradation. 

UNG - Chart Link- finally following through a bit on yesterday's rally and break of the trendline

UNG - Chart Link- daily, still needs to contend with that 9 EMA, best action for confirming a trade would would be for another solid close today

$SPX - Chart Link- just keeping it simple, this is the longest the SPX has been above its 200 day MA since Mar of last year. Over the last few days price has been oscillating around that year long downtrend line, but closed above it nicely today - could that start to trigger some of the 'program buying' places that have been monitoring that? The next big level now is around the 4100 level

QQQ - Chart Link- over the 200 day MA and should outperform relative to SPX on a further rally

LAZ - Chart Link- if you were not stopped out, it's back in the black, price bounced off 9 EMA yesterday, you have a higher low - PUT A STOP IN

QUOT - Chart Link- after some noise, finally moving - glad I gave it room

EGHT - Chart Link- ideally needs to hold this trendline and go - EGHT not my favorite stock to trade, it's so whippy

PM - Chart Link - nice volume, breakout candidate

AMRN - Chart Link - flagging on this pullback

PB - Chart Link - weekly chart looks great

SLGN - Chart Link- big up day, watch that trendline

FNV - Chart Link took out horizontal resistance 

EXK - Chart Link slight break of that long trendline

UNG - Chart Link - broke the wedge yesterday then pulled back, testing the broken trendline of the wedge

at the moment you have a potential MACD KISS, Stochastic OS setup

2nd entry generated on the Stoch Rev short for SPY. For the website I'll show $10K worth of SDS

for the ES systems - the DVDS short is taking a 1st entry - we have thankfully avoided the draw down on this one. For the website I"m entering a 1/2 position only, which is -1 MES futures contract

As far as long systems  - remember that the KISS Trend systems have been long on the SPX and QQQ for the past 1 - 1 .5  weeks. Today a new STS (smart trailing stop) was generated for the QQQ at 270.9. For the SPX a new STS was not generated and remains wide at 3815

I will be out over the next 3 hrs due to picking my father up at the hospital

On a side note very nice day for many of the trade ideas we've had in place and new ones that I put out this morning. 

One other important note: the VIX is currently up for the day while the SPX had a strong day - sometimes that precludes a reversal day

it's showing a 2nd entry - again, an issue I mentioned with that system at the moment is the stop out, it's not a set price, it's based on when an indicator crosses over a certain level and that's pretty far away still. Currently that indicator is at 0.47 and the indicator needs to reach 0.97 to stop out - that indicator is a bit hard to predict - it could start ramping up quickly, or it may take a while. 

anyway we've avoided the drawdown on it, so I may or may not elect to take an entry today if that system takes a 2nd entry, If I do I may do 1/2 position size. Even if it ends up being a loser we'll have avoided much of the draw down

none of the long systems are long such as the breakout. 

on the flip side the KISS trend systems went long over the last week with the QQQ going long on 13th  (and was best to buy that 2 day pullback) for better price, the SPX back long last week. If the trend up continues for a while the KSS systems will ride those.  That's why I don't worry about the reversion to mean stuff catching everything - the pullback last week wasn't enough to trigger any of them, I think one or 2 got close but didn't trigger

UNG - Chart Link- up some today

UNG - Chart Link- 60 min view - testing the trendline of the wedge

and speaking of systems: following up on the KISS Trends systems like the QQQ that went long on Tuesday - at the time I said it was best to wait for a pullback

well look at the right side charts, you got a perfect pullback to the ATR on the 130 min, and a Demark 9 on the 60 min, waiting to buy that dip 2 days later was more objective entry

I'm just trying to share things I've learned and experienced over the years. 

One thing I'm pretty good at is identifying some penitential intermediate trend reversals - such as XLE back in early late Dec 2021, mining stocks in Nov etc where I think a trend could go on for a few months or longer

the BIGGEST mistakes I've made over the years is correctly identifying these major inflection points, establishing positions, and then selling them or getting scared out of them early on in that trend, only to lose my positions and miss that whole trend that I correctly identified.  

the problem is when you mix time perspective analysis - if I think a trending move could last a few months but I then see a 60 min overbought chart and sell those positions a few days into the trend losing them, that's an example of over reacting to short term analysis even though you entered the trade based on an intermediate trend positioning basis. 

one thing can help is if there are inverse ETF's that you can buy to hedge those positions when you think a short term pullback is starting and you don't want to risk selling/losing those long term positions