ACHR - Chart Link- long idea from Monday - tested the trendline of the coil on Tuesday then pulled back otherwise nothing wrong with the chart, still monitoring or look for an early long trigger inside the coil 

guys inverse ETF's make no sense for the KISS systems. The KISS systems are designed to be long only.  When the systems are in cash does not mean it's a good short.  uptrends and topping is a process and far different behavior than downtrends/corrections. Uptrends tend to last for months and months, drift higher etc.  Whereas corrections tend to be violent, and over a faster time frame, and the emotion of fear manifests itself differently on selloffs than greed (uptrends).  When developing the KISS systems, for shorts I would have to use completely different logic and rules than I use for the long only. I've commented on this dozens and dozens of times. Most likely the conditions would have to be MUCH tigher for shorts giving them less room (because of the fact that corrections to to be over much more quickly vs going on for long periods of time.

I've commented that the KISS systems is profitable for most indexes and stocks with profit factors of 3, 4, 5, etc. But what isn't the system profitable on?  inverse ETF's!  And this makes sense given that the systems are not designed to manage shorts. Yes the inverse ETF moves up like a long when the market goes down, but it does NOT behave like a long in an uptrend. The inverse ETF's on the KISS systems have profit factors below 1, such as 0.5, 0.3 etc, completely not profitable, and is why I removed them. They should have never been on the list anyway (they came by default with the ETF's

For something like QID - it's like the market, it really needs to hold Thursday's lows, so is an area to consider as a stop (your choice as I'm not an advisor and can't offer advice, just information for you to act on.  As far as the market make sure to listen to my newsletter when I put it out. Also side note the KISS system has it's stop where that higher is, which matches the important area anyway that I just discussed

$SPX - Chart Link- just perfect on that 5 min. formed a divergent high in the afternoon via the MACD, then a lower high bounce (also had a bearish MACD KISS/Stoch OB setup there)

$SPX - Chart Link- got that pullback in the afternoon from the MACD divergence I mentioned earlier

$SPX - Chart Link- this is the 30 min chart discussed yesterday that we favored because of the bullish break in symmetry 

working on that wave c - it's at the bottom of the target range, though I would like to see it work up to that 50% or 61.8% Fib to suck in panic buying before the next decline

$SPX - Chart Link typical trend day so far - also, the clue this morning was the breakaway gap/

Trend day if there is a pullback it's in the afternoon on some divergence

but otherwise that 30 min scenario that we favored is playin gout

yeah I hope not and maybe being the best flea on the dog will help, but  remember my comments from the weekend newsletter

Rant: Long-term  the trend remains up and we will follow and adapt to whatever the market does. That said, what bothers us in the back of our head is the sheer amount of debt being added and it has went parabolic since 2006. Back in 2006 the national debt was 4.8T, it's now over 32 trillion! Just let that sink in....Also, tax revenue is down about 8% and most economic indicators are deteriorating, and if we go into a recession do you think the debt is going to reduce?? Long-term all this is unsustainable and one day there will be a day of reckoning.

None of the SPY systems closed out, however the ES systems closed out

Mean Reversion SPY and ES systems:

- ES QE MOMO closed out, basically a flat trade
- ES Strap closed out, tiny gain
- ES Trend/Pullback, closed out 1/2, still has 1/2 open

- SPY QE MOMO still long

Volatility Systems:
- QQQ Still long
- EEM Still long
- AAPL closed out 1/2 (though I think one could stay long with a simple stop at Friday's lows at 176.55

Good morning, here's a quick update on the mean reversion systems for the open SPY and ES, and the volatility systems

A lot may close out today should the market close well:

Volatility systems:
EEM looking to close out, AAPL and QQQ still holding

SPY and ES mean reversion systems:
All the open systems are looking to exit: QE MOMO, Trend/Pullback, Strap. I have not decided yet, I may elect to keep 1/2 of the Trend/Pullback with a stop

the attached table has an arrow next to the systems looking to exit. The second chart shows all the open systems charts

AAPL - Chart Link today's move broke uptrend symmetry from the January lows, and notice how the morning bounce stalled EXACTLY at the 50 day MA turned resistance. The symmetry break sets the stage for the next rally to form a lower high

SOXS - Chart Link- opened on top of that wedge trendline yesterday and held it, attempting to bounce off it today

The Trend/Pullback will be taking a 1st entry on MES at the 5 pm close. We had a fist entry yesterday via the QE momo for SPY and ES. Here's an easy visual table for that

the attached images show the systems and the volatility systems (both GS and EEM went long)

Mean reversion systems:  For SPY I don't see anything else triggering. For ES I'm seeing that the Trend/pullback system may trigger a 1st entry today, that would be 2 sub systems

Also, regarding the volatilty systems, EEM and GS may trigger long

Yes that GOOGL short worked - I closed yesterday but I kept mine, closed today

The other  short was EEM - that played out very well

I haven't tested the trend hold on those yet, once I do it's possible that the might have stayed short

yeah generally. 

also - the gap up trend days are almost always the same, but sell off's are a different beast (remember emotion is different on sell offs vs rallies) 

again I would monitor that intra day symmetry: 11.6 points on SPX cash. monitor for things like a wedge etc, and yes many times if you do get an market low it occurs sometimes mid day, then you get a break in symmetry. it's only 11:30 CST so it might be a bit early yet. Again you either get a mid day low, or price tends up mostly trending down the whole day into the close

thank god I bought some DUST yesterday in after hrs for a hedge against my GDX position. 

that's the problem with the pm sector, it's one of the hardest sectors to trade, Steve will confirm as well - it doesn't trend easily like other sectors etc

Please remember those alerts ae really just alarms - they are not direct buy and sell triggers sent by Steve and myself. It's the exact same thing is if you had a list of 10 trade ideas that you placed into a quote screen to monitor at your broker, and you set alerts at various prices, such as near the highs or where you see a trendline that you think is important - the alerts are to 'alert' you that price is nearing that are you identified as important - and is a trigger for you to go and look at the chart and and price action and see if it looks good to buy.  Quotes here are delayed by 15 to 20 min, as I always say, those alerts on the website alarms should not be a substitute for you setting alarms on your own quote list - I do this every day in IB and Trading View - I add our trade ideas and set audio alerts to go off when they are hit so I can be alerted to go look at the chart. 

DVN and VET look fine technically - most trade ideas are placed here with a swing trade approach of several days to several weeks or longer and you have to decide what time frame you wish to trade those; swing or shorter term, and if swing the stops need to be wide enough to account for noise  CAVA was a monster and had a much better pattern than VET or DVN as it was a nice coil. BTBT, DADA, EYPT and NKLA and GRFS were nice momo plays. NINE has a nice chart. Most people here can't or shouldn't attempt to play all the ideas - best to focus on 2 or 3, pick your favorites and go with those. My favorite setups are the coils and flags

the vast majority of our trade ideas end up playing out, I don't have stats, but I'd say 7 or 8 out of 10 most of the time have produced nice swings. 

For you and others when trading the watchlist - the most successful members spend 10 - 20 min at night doing prepwork homework on the setups by placing the symbols in their broker quote list and setting their own alarms (that are real time) vs waiting for an alarm on the website to trigger that is from delayed quotes, and also good to have a trading notebook on your desk and write down the setups you like with levels, and a plan for the next day - that gives you the most chances of success at this.  Folks who don't do some 10/15 min of prep time at night or pre market - and come in during the day and randomly see an alert go off on  couple of the setups, without that prep work those individuals will be less successful.   The most successful traders do their prep work at night or early morning and have a notebook with some written notes of the setups they like coming into that day and also some market comments

remember topping is a process and sometimes a long one at that. The emotion/psychology is different during rallies vs sell offs -greed vs fear manisfest themselves differently. Sell offs tend to be sharp and over quickly, not trending for long periods of time, unlike topping where you get months and months of trends and dips being bought.

topping is a process and generally you need sideways movement, breaks in uptrend symmetry, and lower highs in order to flatten out the slope of the moving averages, such as the 20, 50 etc. 

Steve and I learned a long time ago - when the MA's have strong positive slopes, and price is above the 9 EMA's, if you happen to catch an index short (it's best to lock those gains in quickly once a nice pullback (like yesterday occurs) vs thinking to yourself 'I caught the top with a great price, I'm just going to hold it), 9 times out of 10 you will just give back all the profits or even take a loss. Shorts are for hedges. Only after a break in symmetry and lower high, with some flattening of the MA's, then you can give that short more room

XP - Chart Link- was no reason to sell this the last couple days, pattern was fine despite trying to breakout a couple days ago and pulling back inside, up today bounced off the trendline

GOOGL, which went long on 7/11/23, exited the rest of it's trend hold this morning. 

again this wasn't a website trade and not sent out, but I bring this up for an example of how some of these trades will work. 

I added a trend hold condition to the systems (have not added it to all systems yet) when this activates instead of exiting the entire position, it will exit 1/2 and keep 1/2 to to trend hold condition. However, when stocks are in a trend hold condition, instead of exiting at the close - longs like this stop out if price dips below the low of the previous candle, which is why the last piece of the position exited this morning because it dipped below yesterday's candle - quite a tight trailing stop basically

again don't asking me for settings on the systems, I keep getting that question, 

side note looks like IBM may go long but again long way from the close