SRS took a pretty good dive into the close on Friday, leaving
more than a few people puzzled. The catalyst for that move appears
to have been the release by the Fed of
this policy statementwith regard to accounting
standards on CRE loans. This new policy was greeted initially by
the market with a positive reaction. But, given that the first move
is often the wrong move, will it continue?
ZeroHedge posted an article on this new policy late Friday,
here. Basically, this new policy seems to be
saying that a) the Fed may not backstop CRE as it has with the
housing RE market and lenders, leaving smaller and regional banks
to "deal with it"; but b), will look the other way (don't ask,
don't tell) with respect to what would otherwise be near
fraudulent accounting practices and allow them to "extend and
pretend" with respect to their bad CRE loans. Will this be
enough, or will it merely postpone the inevitable?
One excerpt from the policy statement, among several, is
telling:
"A new appraisal may not be necessary in instances where an
internal evaluation by the institution appropriately updates the
original appraisal assumptions to reflect current market conditions
and provides an estimate of the collateral’s fair value for
impairment analysis."
Internal appraisals? Hold on a moment, let me think.....what was
one of the big reasons we got into this problem in the first place?
OH! Internal appraisers and appraisals!!! The problem is the
solution! Ban internal appraisers for residential RE because it led
to the problem, but encourage the practice in CRE to fix the
problem.
Another way to look at this is to ask, what other options are
there? We are clearly headed toward the abyss with respect to CRE.
When Wilbur Ross and George Soros among other household
investment names all make headlines with respect to CRE (like
we needed them to tell us), and they are not positive
headlines, you know there is a problem.
Another Trillion dollar bailout? I really doubt that will fly
right now for lots of reasons. Ignore the problem and tell private
industry to figure it out and fix it themselves based on the rules
that they knew existed when they got into this mess? Well, that
would likely lead to a major upheaval in CRE, loss of many jobs,
extend the recession, and make government appear weak and uncaring,
not to mention favoring the "too big to fail" (ie, the largest
campaign donors and those with the most lobbyists) as they pay
themselves obscene bonuses with taxpayer money. Or, tell
private industry to deal with it but here is a little orange juice
to go with that shot of vodka. I have no idea what the answer is,
but do know that it is awfully easy to say what the answer
isn't.
I can't believe this was released during market hours on a late
Friday afternoon. It cost me a lot. I had not clue we would move
this far so quickly. My SPY and FAS charts didn't move at all so I
was puzzled and in shock at the time. Usually on a big down day SRS
closes at the HOD so I wasn't too worried about some drops since it
is usually the MM's blowing out a few shorts before we close. You
can tell I am a little frustrated since I had a lot of SRS and DRV
from earlier in the day. What should have been an awesome day
turned out even. And those playing the 15 minute system got hurt as
well.
Lesson learned is don't put all your eggs in one basket.
The mech systems work well on their own without second guessing
them.
One point I must make, you mention something about not putting
all your eggs in one basket?
Again this is a personal decision, but please use proper
moneymanagementwhen trading these
systems,
don't put your whole
trading account into one system. Yes theoretically the
gains will be much faster, but it can lead to obvious
problems.
If I had a 30K account for example, I might only put 10K into
one system at any one time and that's still pushing it!
One thing about the systems that I had problems with early on is
psychology. I was placing too much of my portfolio
(percentage wise) into the systems and as a result, it was messing
up my psychology. For example, I found myself second guessing
the systems, not taking trades, and exiting positions early (many
times to my detriment) - why, because when the systems would
whipsaw, I couldn't take the huge amount psychologically.
So that's something to consider,
don't throw your whole
account into these systems and don't margin out. The
gains will add up quickly enough without doing that.
The best rule of thumb regrading position size that I have ever
heard is this quote from Jesse Livermore -- a
friend told him they had a large position in a certain stock
and it was keeping them up at night and they didn't know what to do
and Jesse Livermore said -- "Sell till you can
sleep!" And that's really it in a
nutshell. Someone asked on the blog for people to
post hard-won trading advice. Well, that's mine. When
you get into a position that you think you can handle
psychologically and then it turns out you can't -- for whatever
reason -- then its a wrong position and you must close the position
at a loss, or as much of it as you need to, so that you can sleep
soundly at night. Otherwise it eats at you and ruins your
ability to trade other positions effectively.
And here's the tricky part for those of you who haven't learned
it yet - quite often you find yourself not able to sleep only when
your portfolio turns south. (Sleeping is quite nice when things are
going well, even if you're margined!) But generally, you'll find
yourself unable to sleep right about when things go wrong,
generally when your portfolio hits a low point in its up and down
cycles. The problem is that's usually the worst time to stop
trading systems, because they tend to recover afterwards, and
you'll likely miss out if you stop then.
So, do yourselves a favor and don't trade more than you'd be
reasonably comfortable with if you lost, say, 20%. (I've found
that portfolios of mechanical systems traders have regular
portfolio pullbacks (meaning the whole account) of 10% or more
from peaks, so just be ready for that. Higher pullbacks can happen
during more volatile times. And these pullbacks often last for
weeks!)
While we're on topic, I like to use at least 4 different
symbols, each weighted equally (mainly for the sake of simplicity).
Even though I sometimes trade multiple strategies per symbol, I
still keep them equally weighted. So, although SRS was a complete
annoyance for me as well, it was nothing more than that (since it
was only 1/4 of what I trade).
Yes. Too many eggs in SRS/DRV on Friday for me. Also shorted
AMZN and EEM and had TZA so the day wasn't a loss by any means, but
I hate to see big gains disappear because of the Government. IYR
should have closed down big on Friday.
I learned that lesson too philr. I mostly bought DRV but locked
in 1/2 and hold 1/2 to swing. But what I really missed was to buy
FAZ, EDZ, DUG etc... Let's see what Monday bring us.
Posted by pthoreson on 1st of Nov 2009 at 12:19 pm
Who could have known? It isn't like any of us is in
Bernanke's speed dialer. These news based moves often correct
themselves not long after the release. In the longer term, EW will
play out as it is based on the two most fundamental aspects of the
financial markets, fear and greed.
While this news is, on the one hand, a positive for CRE as it
gives a green light to banks with large CRE positions to cook
their books, it may also signal that the Fed will not intervene
further in the form of even lower standards for accepting CRE debt
as collateral and less liklihood of doling out more cash for RE
clunkers. In fact, it may eliminate that possibility. It also
screams to me, "buyer beware" in terms of being a shareholder in an
affected bank. How will I know if the bank stock I buy is backed by
legitimate books kept in accordance with prudent accounting
standards? I have to think other investors will be asking the same
question. So, the initial good news may in fact be not so good news
longer term.
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Commercial Real Estate - SRS
Posted by pthoreson on 1st of Nov 2009 at 11:28 am
SRS took a pretty good dive into the close on Friday, leaving more than a few people puzzled. The catalyst for that move appears to have been the release by the Fed of this policy statementwith regard to accounting standards on CRE loans. This new policy was greeted initially by the market with a positive reaction. But, given that the first move is often the wrong move, will it continue?
ZeroHedge posted an article on this new policy late Friday, here. Basically, this new policy seems to be saying that a) the Fed may not backstop CRE as it has with the housing RE market and lenders, leaving smaller and regional banks to "deal with it"; but b), will look the other way (don't ask, don't tell) with respect to what would otherwise be near fraudulent accounting practices and allow them to "extend and pretend" with respect to their bad CRE loans. Will this be enough, or will it merely postpone the inevitable?
One excerpt from the policy statement, among several, is telling:
"A new appraisal may not be necessary in instances where an internal evaluation by the institution appropriately updates the original appraisal assumptions to reflect current market conditions and provides an estimate of the collateral’s fair value for impairment analysis."
Internal appraisals? Hold on a moment, let me think.....what was one of the big reasons we got into this problem in the first place? OH! Internal appraisers and appraisals!!! The problem is the solution! Ban internal appraisers for residential RE because it led to the problem, but encourage the practice in CRE to fix the problem.
Another way to look at this is to ask, what other options are there? We are clearly headed toward the abyss with respect to CRE. When Wilbur Ross and George Soros among other household investment names all make headlines with respect to CRE (like we needed them to tell us), and they are not positive headlines, you know there is a problem.
Another Trillion dollar bailout? I really doubt that will fly right now for lots of reasons. Ignore the problem and tell private industry to figure it out and fix it themselves based on the rules that they knew existed when they got into this mess? Well, that would likely lead to a major upheaval in CRE, loss of many jobs, extend the recession, and make government appear weak and uncaring, not to mention favoring the "too big to fail" (ie, the largest campaign donors and those with the most lobbyists) as they pay themselves obscene bonuses with taxpayer money. Or, tell private industry to deal with it but here is a little orange juice to go with that shot of vodka. I have no idea what the answer is, but do know that it is awfully easy to say what the answer isn't.
IYR Friday Afternoon
Posted by philr on 1st of Nov 2009 at 11:49 am
I can't believe this was released during market hours on a late Friday afternoon. It cost me a lot. I had not clue we would move this far so quickly. My SPY and FAS charts didn't move at all so I was puzzled and in shock at the time. Usually on a big down day SRS closes at the HOD so I wasn't too worried about some drops since it is usually the MM's blowing out a few shorts before we close. You can tell I am a little frustrated since I had a lot of SRS and DRV from earlier in the day. What should have been an awesome day turned out even. And those playing the 15 minute system got hurt as well.
Lesson learned is don't put all your eggs in one basket.
The mech systems work well
Posted by matt on 1st of Nov 2009 at 02:24 pm
The mech systems work well on their own without second guessing them.
One point I must make, you mention something about not putting all your eggs in one basket?
Again this is a personal decision, but please use proper money managementwhen trading these systems, don't put your whole trading account into one system. Yes theoretically the gains will be much faster, but it can lead to obvious problems.
If I had a 30K account for example, I might only put 10K into one system at any one time and that's still pushing it!
One thing about the systems that I had problems with early on is psychology. I was placing too much of my portfolio (percentage wise) into the systems and as a result, it was messing up my psychology. For example, I found myself second guessing the systems, not taking trades, and exiting positions early (many times to my detriment) - why, because when the systems would whipsaw, I couldn't take the huge amount psychologically.
So that's something to consider, don't throw your whole account into these systems and don't margin out. The gains will add up quickly enough without doing that.
how much to put into mech systems?
Posted by Michael on 1st of Nov 2009 at 08:07 pm
The best rule of thumb regrading position size that I have ever heard is this quote from Jesse Livermore -- a friend told him they had a large position in a certain stock and it was keeping them up at night and they didn't know what to do and Jesse Livermore said -- "Sell till you can sleep!" And that's really it in a nutshell. Someone asked on the blog for people to post hard-won trading advice. Well, that's mine. When you get into a position that you think you can handle psychologically and then it turns out you can't -- for whatever reason -- then its a wrong position and you must close the position at a loss, or as much of it as you need to, so that you can sleep soundly at night. Otherwise it eats at you and ruins your ability to trade other positions effectively.
And here's the tricky part
Posted by user32 on 1st of Nov 2009 at 09:26 pm
And here's the tricky part for those of you who haven't learned it yet - quite often you find yourself not able to sleep only when your portfolio turns south. (Sleeping is quite nice when things are going well, even if you're margined!) But generally, you'll find yourself unable to sleep right about when things go wrong, generally when your portfolio hits a low point in its up and down cycles. The problem is that's usually the worst time to stop trading systems, because they tend to recover afterwards, and you'll likely miss out if you stop then.
So, do yourselves a favor and don't trade more than you'd be reasonably comfortable with if you lost, say, 20%. (I've found that portfolios of mechanical systems traders have regular portfolio pullbacks (meaning the whole account) of 10% or more from peaks, so just be ready for that. Higher pullbacks can happen during more volatile times. And these pullbacks often last for weeks!)
While we're on topic, I
Posted by user32 on 1st of Nov 2009 at 09:18 pm
While we're on topic, I like to use at least 4 different symbols, each weighted equally (mainly for the sake of simplicity). Even though I sometimes trade multiple strategies per symbol, I still keep them equally weighted. So, although SRS was a complete annoyance for me as well, it was nothing more than that (since it was only 1/4 of what I trade).
Eggs
Posted by philr on 1st of Nov 2009 at 03:12 pm
Yes. Too many eggs in SRS/DRV on Friday for me. Also shorted AMZN and EEM and had TZA so the day wasn't a loss by any means, but I hate to see big gains disappear because of the Government. IYR should have closed down big on Friday.
SRS Friday.
Posted by piclez on 1st of Nov 2009 at 12:23 pm
I learned that lesson too philr. I mostly bought DRV but locked in 1/2 and hold 1/2 to swing. But what I really missed was to buy FAZ, EDZ, DUG etc... Let's see what Monday bring us.
Who could have known? It
Posted by pthoreson on 1st of Nov 2009 at 12:19 pm
Who could have known? It isn't like any of us is in Bernanke's speed dialer. These news based moves often correct themselves not long after the release. In the longer term, EW will play out as it is based on the two most fundamental aspects of the financial markets, fear and greed.
While this news is, on the one hand, a positive for CRE as it gives a green light to banks with large CRE positions to cook their books, it may also signal that the Fed will not intervene further in the form of even lower standards for accepting CRE debt as collateral and less liklihood of doling out more cash for RE clunkers. In fact, it may eliminate that possibility. It also screams to me, "buyer beware" in terms of being a shareholder in an affected bank. How will I know if the bank stock I buy is backed by legitimate books kept in accordance with prudent accounting standards? I have to think other investors will be asking the same question. So, the initial good news may in fact be not so good news longer term.