Commercial Real Estate - SRS

    Posted by pthoreson on 1st of Nov 2009 at 11:28 am
    Title: Why SRS Fell Friday PM

    IYR Friday Afternoon

    Posted by philr on 1st of Nov 2009 at 11:49 am

    I can't believe this was released during market hours on a late Friday afternoon. It cost me a lot. I had not clue we would move this far so quickly. My SPY and FAS charts didn't move at all so I was puzzled and in shock at the time. Usually on a big down day SRS closes at the HOD so I wasn't too worried about some drops since it is usually the MM's blowing out a few shorts before we close. You can tell I am a little frustrated since I had a lot of SRS and DRV from earlier in the day. What should have been an awesome day turned out even. And those playing the 15 minute system got hurt as well.

    Lesson learned is don't put all your eggs in one basket.

    The mech systems work well

    Posted by matt on 1st of Nov 2009 at 02:24 pm

    The mech systems work well on their own without second guessing them.

    One point I must make, you mention something about not putting all your eggs in one basket?

    Again this is a personal decision, but please use proper money managementwhen trading these systems, don't put your whole trading account into one system.  Yes theoretically the gains will be much faster, but it can lead to obvious problems. 

    If I had a 30K account for example, I might only put 10K into one system at any one time and that's still pushing it!

    One thing about the systems that I had problems with early on is psychology.  I was placing too much of my portfolio (percentage wise) into the systems and as a result, it was messing up my psychology.  For example, I found myself second guessing the systems, not taking trades, and exiting positions early (many times to my detriment) - why, because when the systems would whipsaw, I couldn't take the huge amount psychologically. 

    So that's something to consider, don't throw your whole account into these systems and don't margin out.  The gains will add up quickly enough without doing that.

    how much to put into mech systems?

    Posted by Michael on 1st of Nov 2009 at 08:07 pm

    The best rule of thumb regrading position size that I have ever heard is this quote from Jesse Livermore --  a friend told him they had a large position in a certain stock and it was keeping them up at night and they didn't know what to do and Jesse Livermore said -- "Sell till you can sleep!"   And that's really it in a nutshell.   Someone asked on the blog for people to post hard-won trading advice.  Well, that's mine.  When you get into a position that you think you can handle psychologically and then it turns out you can't -- for whatever reason -- then its a wrong position and you must close the position at a loss, or as much of it as you need to, so that you can sleep soundly at night.  Otherwise it eats at you and ruins your ability to trade other positions effectively. 

    And here's the tricky part

    Posted by user32 on 1st of Nov 2009 at 09:26 pm

    And here's the tricky part for those of you who haven't learned it yet - quite often you find yourself not able to sleep only when your portfolio turns south. (Sleeping is quite nice when things are going well, even if you're margined!) But generally, you'll find yourself unable to sleep right about when things go wrong, generally when your portfolio hits a low point in its up and down cycles. The problem is that's usually the worst time to stop trading systems, because they tend to recover afterwards, and you'll likely miss out if you stop then.

    So, do yourselves a favor and don't trade more than you'd be reasonably comfortable with if you lost, say, 20%. (I've found that portfolios of mechanical systems traders have regular portfolio pullbacks (meaning the whole account) of 10% or more from peaks, so just be ready for that. Higher pullbacks can happen during more volatile times. And these pullbacks often last for weeks!)

     

     

    While we're on topic, I

    Posted by user32 on 1st of Nov 2009 at 09:18 pm

    While we're on topic, I like to use at least 4 different symbols, each weighted equally (mainly for the sake of simplicity). Even though I sometimes trade multiple strategies per symbol, I still keep them equally weighted. So, although SRS was a complete annoyance for me as well, it was nothing more than that (since it was only 1/4 of what I trade).

    Eggs

    Posted by philr on 1st of Nov 2009 at 03:12 pm

    Yes. Too many eggs in SRS/DRV on Friday for me. Also shorted AMZN and EEM and had TZA so the day wasn't a loss by any means, but I hate to see big gains disappear because of the Government. IYR should have closed down big on Friday.

    SRS Friday.

    Posted by piclez on 1st of Nov 2009 at 12:23 pm

    I learned that lesson too philr. I mostly bought DRV but locked in 1/2 and hold 1/2 to swing. But what I really missed was to buy FAZ, EDZ, DUG etc... Let's see what Monday bring us.

    Who could have known? It

    Posted by pthoreson on 1st of Nov 2009 at 12:19 pm

    Who could have known? It isn't like any of us is in Bernanke's speed dialer. These news based moves often correct themselves not long after the release. In the longer term, EW will play out as it is based on the two most fundamental aspects of the financial markets, fear and greed.

    While this news is, on the one hand, a positive for CRE as it gives a green light to banks with large CRE positions to cook their books, it may also signal that the Fed will not intervene further in the form of even lower standards for accepting CRE debt as collateral and less liklihood of doling out more cash for RE clunkers. In fact, it may eliminate that possibility. It also screams to me, "buyer beware" in terms of being a shareholder in an affected bank. How will I know if the bank stock I buy is backed by legitimate books kept in accordance with prudent accounting standards? I have to think other investors will be asking the same question. So, the initial good news may in fact be not so good news longer term.

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