Posted by pthoreson on 9th of Nov 2010 at 02:48 pm
Killing a wayward satelllite is a plausible explanation, but
didn't he say the launch took place off a ship located NW of
Hawaii? The news crew video was shot from a helicopter in LA. And,
how is it the US Military had no clue about this for the past 12
hours? Still seems very strange.
Posted by pthoreson on 9th of Nov 2010 at 02:20 pm
I just watched the video. And read a few posts from news
sources. Very strange, that was a whole lot more than any July4
rocket on steroids. And, the US Military still denies any
involvement. No notice to Mariners nor Aviators. It could easily
have taken out an airplane on approach to LAX. Not many positives I
can think of to explain it.
Posted by pthoreson on 9th of Nov 2010 at 10:49 am
Check to see if StockCharts defaulted you to a log scale chart,
or out of log scale. That happens to me all the time, when you
uncheck the log setting then click update the trendlines
and notes return. Quite annoying.
Barclays Bank PLC has announced
that it will implement a one-for-four reverse split of the iPath
S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) VXX, effective Tuesday
November 9. The move comes as the value of the note has fallen well
below the $25 mark, which contractually allows Barclays to initiate
a reverse split; as of Wednesday shares were trading around $13.40.
The reverse split will be effective at the open of trading on
November 9th and notes will begin trading on the NYSE Arca and the
TSX on a reverse-split adjusted basis on that date. The adjusted
notes will have a new CUSIP but will retain the same ticker
symbols. Despite uncertain prospects for the global economy, U.S.
equities have managed to surge higher over the past few months
thanks to impressive earnings reports and ongoing hopes over a
massive QE program from the Fed. [...]
Gold Pricesjust got their own version of the US stock market's VIX "fear
index"... TWENTY YEARS
AGO, the research and marketing crews at the Chicago Board
Options Exchange thought up the S&P Volatility Index – the VIX
–
writes Brad
Zigler at
Hard
Assets Investor.
In creating the VIX, the CBOE thought they had a gold mine.
Yet it's taken two decades to put gold into the VIX, and create a
volatility index for precious metals traders.
The VIX uses near-term options prices to derive a volatility
forecast for its underlying asset, the Standard & Poor's 500
Index. As volatility represents the degree of price variance around
a mean, VIX is a measure of risk. When the VIX rises, in short, so
too, do traders' expectations of wider price swings. That's why VIX
got pinned with the title of "fear index".
There's money in fear. In fact, you could say that the CBOE
is stirring up fear as it aggressively licenses its VIX methodology
to other marketplaces. And now, the fear index methodology will now
be applied to Comex
Gold
Futures. A new metric – officially dubbed the CBOE/COMEX Gold
Volatility Index (GVX) – uses the same mathematical gizmos driving
the VIX for the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (the world's largest
Gold ETF,
and a fair proxy for gold bullion prices).
The new GVX is actually part of a four-index suite including
those tracking the volatility of futures on WTI crude oil, soybeans
and corn trading on CME subsidiaries. Publication of GVX will
commence with the October 18 trading session. The CME/Comex also
plans to launch futures and options on the GVX by year's end.
So, why does gold – which some might say is a fear market
itself – need its own fear index? Well, the VIX is forward looking.
Embedded in option prices are volatility expectations for their
underlying assets, but to get to them, you've got to strip away the
other risk components – such as for price direction, interest-rate
fluctuations and time 'til expiration. A VIX gives you a direct,
real-time read on near-term volatility projections.
Whether any incremental trading information is obtainable via
the new GVX isn't contained in the existing CBOE metric tracking
GLD options is debatable. But, of course, that's not the point.
GVX will be the basis for new products. It's trading, after
all, that makes money for exchanges. Still, volatility indexes are
valuable in their own right. They give investors immediate insight
into traders' thinking. Without volatility indexes like VIX or GVX,
investors have to do more digging about to glean clues from the
professional market.
Comparing the premia of out-of-the-money puts on the GLD
trust shares and the SPDR Depository Receipts, for example, also
gives investors a running commentary on the risk perceived in the
gold market, but requires a little arithmetic.
And as it happens, up here at record-high
Gold
Prices, this "fear index" metric for gold – in essence, the
insurance cost for gold positions – spiked higher late last week.
Apparently, gold option traders weren't waiting for the new index,
due to launch next Monday, to express their fear.
Following is the ZH take on the SEC Report. They later posted a
chart of the S&P emini volume showing how comparatively little
75k contracts are in the usual daily trading volume for
this futures contract. While that trade might merit the honor of
being one straw on a camels back, it most certainly wasn't the last
nor the heaviest. The Report itself is informative, and
detailed, but certainly gave me no confidence at all that this
sort of event cannot or will not happen again.
After reading the Executive Summary I am left with the
impression that the SEC was utterly and completely clueless about
how our markes work in this day of HFT, hedging, cross market
arbitrage, and other computerized trading strategies. That part is
very scary. While it appears they now have a better understanding,
it remains to be seen if they will actually do something to prevent
this ongoing issue, since the May crash there have been repeated
instances of this same sort of event, only on a smaller scale. It
happened with AAPL just the other day.
What is noticeably missing from this Report is a section on
recommendations. Nothing. While the SEC did implement some
temporary circuit breakers and trade breaking guidlines (they admit
the "aberrant" May trades were broken with no tranparency or
established guidelines) , these will expire in December and nothing
I have read so far either recommends they be kept in place or
recommends they be modified or allowed to end.
So, I guess it's back to Debbie Does Derivatives for the
SEC.
Posted by pthoreson on 1st of Oct 2010 at 01:20 pm
Here is the
full SEC report on the flash crash. I have
not read it yet, probably won't until tonight. I do hope that
the ZH crew will have their usual insightful analysis posted
soon, however.
Posted by pthoreson on 1st of Oct 2010 at 01:16 pm
saturn6 is right, if you trade gold in Dollars and other nations
are intervening to weaken their currencies, which has the effect of
strengthening the dollar, then I would expect gold (in dollars) to
pull back somewhat. But, in my view, no one nation can go it alone
against Bazooka Ben. It is suicidal. The US Fed has more firepower
to decimate the value of the dollar than any other nation, perhaps
even groups of nations, has to buy those dollars and weaken their
currency against the dollar.
Brasil has even threatened to issue bonds, to borrow, and to use
their sovereign wealth fund, in order to buy dollars and stop the
rise in value of the Real. That has never been done by anyone I am
aware of, it is something on the level of a nuclear option. Brasil
has been buying Billions of dollars in the open market, and still
the Real is strengthening against the Dollar.
I wouldn't worry, there are plenty more POMO scheduled.
Operation Date
1
Settlement Date
Operation Type
2
Maturity Range
September 15, 2010
September 16, 2010
Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase
9/30/2014 – 8/31/2016
September 16, 2010
September 17, 2010
Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase
3/15/2012 – 2/28/2013
September 20, 2010
September 21, 2010
Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase
9/30/2016 – 8/15/2020
September 22, 2010
September 23, 2010
Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase
3/15/2013 – 8/31/2014
September 24, 2010
September 27, 2010
Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase
9/30/2014 – 8/31/2016
September 28, 2010
September 29, 2010
Outright TIPS Purchase
1/15/2011 – 2/15/2040
September 30, 2010
October 1, 2010
Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase
2/15/2021 – 8/15/2040
October 5, 2010
October 6, 2010
Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase
9/30/2016 – 8/15/2020
October 6, 2010
October 7, 2010
Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase
3/15/2013 – 8/31/2014
The next release of the approximate purchase amount and
tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on
October 13, 2010.
______________________________
1Operations are tentatively scheduled to begin around
10:15 AM and close at 11:00 AM.
2Nominal coupon operations are specified as “Outright
Treasury Coupon Purchase” and TIPS operations are specified as
“Outright TIPS Purchase”
Posted by pthoreson on 30th of Sep 2010 at 04:51 pm
There is a site called ZeroClue.com, but if you are referring to
ZeroHedge.com, yes, I read it religiously. Compared with the drivel
that comes out of the mainstream media it is a breath of fresh air
and honesty and provides insight not available elsewhere. If you
are aware of better financial news and comment sources, I am all
ears.
I find this beyond belief. If this doesn't lead to Bernanke
being fired, or the resignation of the Governors responsible for
these leaks, then it simply confirms to me that the US Fed is just
one huge fraud. Of course, many already believe that so call me
naieve if you like.
On August 19, just nine days after
the U.S. central bank surprised financial markets by deciding to
buy more bonds to support a flagging economy, former Fed governor
Larry Meyer sent a note to clients of his consulting firm with a
breakdown of the policy-setting meeting.
The minutes from that same gathering of the powerful Federal
Open Market Committee, or FOMC, are made available to the public --
but only after a three-week lag. So Meyer's clients were provided
with a glimpse into what the Fed was thinking well ahead of other
investors.
His note cited the views of "most members" and "many members"
as he detailed increasingly sharp divisions among the officials who
determine the nation's monetary policy.
The inside scoop, which explained how rising mortgage
prepayments had prompted renewed central bank action, was simply
too detailed to have come from anywhere but the Fed.
A respected economist, Meyer charges clients around $75,000
for his product, which includes a popular forecasting service. He
frequently shares his research with reporters, though he kept this
note out of the public eye. Reuters obtained a copy from a market
source. Meyer declined to comment for this story, as did the
Federal Reserve.
By necessity, the Fed spends a considerable amount of time
talking to investment managers, bank economists and market
strategists. Doing so helps it gather intelligence about the market
and the economy that is invaluable in informing the bank's
decisions on borrowing costs and lending programs.
But a Reuters
investigation has found that the information flow sometimes goes
both ways as Fed officials let their guard down with former
colleagues and other close private sector contacts.
This is beyond disgusting, but that
is to what this bullshit country has devolved: leaking the most
important decisions made on "behalf of the middle class" so that a
few multi-billionaires can make a few extra soon to be worthless
dollars.
We will indicate if and when Pimco
goes on margin next when the Total Return Fund posts its holding
distribution next in mid October, telegraphing what the Fed has
told it about the November FOMC meeting, but frankly at this point
it is irrelevant. It is now obvious that the Fed realizes all too
well that all is lost and just feeding its wealthy clients (that's
right, these people are the Fed's
CLIENTS) the last remaining scraps before it pulls the
hyperinflation switch.
Posted by pthoreson on 24th of Sep 2010 at 02:38 pm
Here is the link to the
full White Paper. This has been put out by
Themis Trading, not the SEC, and it represents their view of what
the SEC is likely to do. Elliminating stop loss orders would make
it much riskier for retail traders to participate in the markets,
why this would even be considered (assuming it is being considered)
is beyond me. Simply ban flash orders and eliminate HFT, require a
minumum 2 second lifespan for every order, and prohibit
co-located computers and maybe the public might regain some trust
and faith.
Posted by pthoreson on 24th of Sep 2010 at 02:18 pm
With 20
consecutive weeks of mutual fund outflows already they are thinking
of driving even more traders from the markets? The SEC has
apparently not disconnected the porn feeds!
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Eliminating
stop-loss orders may be one of the steps regulators will take in an
attempt to prevent another so-called flash crash, according to a
white paper published Friday. Analysts at Themis Trading identified
four major recommendations that they believe Securities and
Exchange Commission staff will make in response to the events of
May 6. Most notably, they said, officials may want to scrap
stop-loss orders. "[Stop-loss] orders were not the cause of the
flash crash per se, but they resulted in enormous damage to many
unsuspecting traditional investors. The SEC has indicated that it
may require market order 'collars,' effectively converting market
orders into limit orders," they wrote. The authors also suggested
the SEC may introduce a limit up/down feature to stock circuit
breakers, eliminate stub quotes and increase obligations for market
markers.
I do not see
eliminating high frequency trading, which certainly helpd if not
actually caused the crash when the HFT machines were simply
turned off, anywhere in there. These people have lost their
minds.
Huge gamble for PBR on their
massive share issuance, VALE doing a share buy back, and Brasil
feeling suckered for having allowed Bernanke to convince them to
fight the dollar appreciation a year ago while now considering the
"nuclear" move of issuing debt to buy dollars and using their
sovereign wealth fund to try to contain the Real from
appreciating any further. Leveraged currency manipulation, wow.
Lots going on here, and it is finally Spring and warm weather in
Rio.
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- The
Brazilian exchange has become the world's second-largest exchange,
climbing in market value as a massive share sale by state-run oil
giant Petrobras is expected to lift trading volume, the exchange's
operator BM&FBovespa SA said Friday. The company said in a
statement that based on Thursday's market closing, the Bovespa
exchange's market capitalization has reached 30.4 billion reals, or
$17.8 billion, larger than the London, Nasdaq and New York
exchanges combined. The world's largest exchange is Hong Kong's,
with a market capitalization of $19.8 billion, according to the
statement. Late Thursday, Petrobras raised $67 billion in the
largest share sale on record. The oil firm still has the option to
sell additional shares.
Posted by pthoreson on 23rd of Sep 2010 at 01:23 pm
Been watching NFLX for a potential short/intermediate term
short. But, what is up with the spread? Acting more like GOOG than
a $160 stock, and with 7 million volume so far today. Perhaps the
HFT traders have not invaded this symbol?
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Killing a wayward satelllite is
Mystery Missile launch
Posted by pthoreson on 9th of Nov 2010 at 02:48 pm
Killing a wayward satelllite is a plausible explanation, but didn't he say the launch took place off a ship located NW of Hawaii? The news crew video was shot from a helicopter in LA. And, how is it the US Military had no clue about this for the past 12 hours? Still seems very strange.
But not sorry enough to
This from Stockcharts
Posted by pthoreson on 9th of Nov 2010 at 02:21 pm
But not sorry enough to offer a credit.
I just watched the video.
Mystery Missile launch
Posted by pthoreson on 9th of Nov 2010 at 02:20 pm
I just watched the video. And read a few posts from news sources. Very strange, that was a whole lot more than any July4 rocket on steroids. And, the US Military still denies any involvement. No notice to Mariners nor Aviators. It could easily have taken out an airplane on approach to LAX. Not many positives I can think of to explain it.
Trader or Gambler?
Posted by pthoreson on 9th of Nov 2010 at 12:22 pm
A hilarious cartoon: here
Stockcharts lost trendlines
Stockcharts working again!
Posted by pthoreson on 9th of Nov 2010 at 10:49 am
Check to see if StockCharts defaulted you to a log scale chart, or out of log scale. That happens to me all the time, when you uncheck the log setting then click update the trendlines and notes return. Quite annoying.
VXX to do reverse split 11/09
Posted by pthoreson on 27th of Oct 2010 at 12:11 pm
Barclays Bank PLC has announced that it will implement a one-for-four reverse split of the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) VXX, effective Tuesday November 9. The move comes as the value of the note has fallen well below the $25 mark, which contractually allows Barclays to initiate a reverse split; as of Wednesday shares were trading around $13.40. The reverse split will be effective at the open of trading on November 9th and notes will begin trading on the NYSE Arca and the TSX on a reverse-split adjusted basis on that date. The adjusted notes will have a new CUSIP but will retain the same ticker symbols. Despite uncertain prospects for the global economy, U.S. equities have managed to surge higher over the past few months thanks to impressive earnings reports and ongoing hopes over a massive QE program from the Fed. [...]
Click here to read the original article on ETFdb.com.
New VIX for Gold
Posted by pthoreson on 13th of Oct 2010 at 09:33 am
Gold Prices just got their own version of the US stock market's VIX "fear index"...
TWENTY YEARS AGO , the research and marketing crews at the Chicago Board Options Exchange thought up the S&P Volatility Index – the VIX – writes Brad Zigler at Hard Assets Investor.
In creating the VIX, the CBOE thought they had a gold mine. Yet it's taken two decades to put gold into the VIX, and create a volatility index for precious metals traders.
The VIX uses near-term options prices to derive a volatility forecast for its underlying asset, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. As volatility represents the degree of price variance around a mean, VIX is a measure of risk. When the VIX rises, in short, so too, do traders' expectations of wider price swings. That's why VIX got pinned with the title of "fear index".
There's money in fear. In fact, you could say that the CBOE is stirring up fear as it aggressively licenses its VIX methodology to other marketplaces. And now, the fear index methodology will now be applied to Comex Gold Futures. A new metric – officially dubbed the CBOE/COMEX Gold Volatility Index (GVX) – uses the same mathematical gizmos driving the VIX for the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (the world's largest Gold ETF, and a fair proxy for gold bullion prices).
The new GVX is actually part of a four-index suite including those tracking the volatility of futures on WTI crude oil, soybeans and corn trading on CME subsidiaries. Publication of GVX will commence with the October 18 trading session. The CME/Comex also plans to launch futures and options on the GVX by year's end.
So, why does gold – which some might say is a fear market itself – need its own fear index? Well, the VIX is forward looking. Embedded in option prices are volatility expectations for their underlying assets, but to get to them, you've got to strip away the other risk components – such as for price direction, interest-rate fluctuations and time 'til expiration. A VIX gives you a direct, real-time read on near-term volatility projections.
Whether any incremental trading information is obtainable via the new GVX isn't contained in the existing CBOE metric tracking GLD options is debatable. But, of course, that's not the point.
GVX will be the basis for new products. It's trading, after all, that makes money for exchanges. Still, volatility indexes are valuable in their own right. They give investors immediate insight into traders' thinking. Without volatility indexes like VIX or GVX, investors have to do more digging about to glean clues from the professional market.
Comparing the premia of out-of-the-money puts on the GLD trust shares and the SPDR Depository Receipts, for example, also gives investors a running commentary on the risk perceived in the gold market, but requires a little arithmetic.
And as it happens, up here at record-high Gold Prices, this "fear index" metric for gold – in essence, the insurance cost for gold positions – spiked higher late last week. Apparently, gold option traders weren't waiting for the new index, due to launch next Monday, to express their fear.
Title: The ZH review of
This Has To Be A Joke
Posted by pthoreson on 1st of Oct 2010 at 02:24 pm
Following is the ZH take on the SEC Report. They later posted a chart of the S&P emini volume showing how comparatively little 75k contracts are in the usual daily trading volume for this futures contract. While that trade might merit the honor of being one straw on a camels back, it most certainly wasn't the last nor the heaviest. The Report itself is informative, and detailed, but certainly gave me no confidence at all that this sort of event cannot or will not happen again.
100+ pages of garbage, and yes, Waddell and Reed, and their destructive hedging trade of 75,000 e-minis is the culprit that apparently set everything off: "At 2:32 p.m., against this backdrop of unusually high volatility and thinning liquidity, a large fundamental trader (a mutual fund complex) [ZH: Waddell and Reed] initiated a sell program to sell a total of 75,000 E-Mini contracts (valued at approximately $4.1 billion) as a hedge to an existing equity position." Apparently, its was all evil W&R's fault who traded in conjunction with an even more evil VWAP algo: "This large fundamental trader chose to execute this sell program via an automated execution algorithm (“Sell Algorithm”) that was programmed to feed orders into the June 2010 E-Mini market to target an execution rate set to 9% of the trading volume calculated over the previous minute, but without regard to price or time. However, on May 6, when markets were already under stress, the Sell Algorithm chosen by the large trader to only target trading volume, and neither price nor time, executed the sell program extremely rapidly in just 20 minutes." In other words, there never was, is and never will be any liquidity in the allegedly most liquid market - ES. Good luck to all those who hope to sell the second there is a second flash crash.
And here is the initial mention of HFTs:
HFTs and intermediaries were the likely buyers of the initial batch of orders submitted by the Sell Algorithm, and, as a result, these buyers built up temporary long positions. Specifically, HFTs accumulated a net long position of about 3,300 contracts. However, between 2:41 p.m. and 2:44 p.m., HFTs aggressively sold about 2,000 E-Mini contracts in order to reduce their temporary long positions. At the same time, HFTs traded nearly 140,000 E-Mini contracts or over 33% of the total trading volume. This is consistent with the HFTs’ typical practice of trading a very large number of contracts, but not accumulating an aggregate inventory beyond three to four thousand contracts in either direction. What happened next is best described in terms of two liquidity crises – one at the broad index level in the E-Mini, the other with respect to individual stocks.
Here is the SEC's justification for why HFT-Stop is now a prevalent phenomenon that can occur whenever and wherever the computer participants who account for 70% of the market so desire:
Based on their respective individual risk assessments, some market makers and other liquidity providers widened their quote spreads, others reduced offered liquidity, and a significant number withdrew completely from the markets. Some fell back to manual trading but had to limit their focus to only a subset of securities as they were not able to keep up with the nearly ten-fold increase in volume that occurred as prices in many securities rapidly declined.
HFTs in the equity markets, who normally both provide and take liquidity as part of their strategies, traded proportionally more as volume increased, and overall were net sellers in the rapidly declining broad market along with most other participants. Some of these firms continued to trade as the broad indices began to recover and individual securities started to experience severe price dislocations, whereas others reduced or halted trading completely.
In other words, nothing new, and the primary reason for ongoing market instability: HFT's dominance in the market and its ability to pull all bids whenever desired, will lead to ever more market crashes. Furthermore, HFTs were merely innocent bystanders in an evil ploy concocted by W&R and VWAP algos which incidentally have worked perfectly trilions of times before, but failed on this one occasions.
And yes, it is nobody's fault really. Here is how the SEC completely ignores the Nanex data that showed quote stuffing (wether involuntary or malicious) was a critical component of the crash.
Some market participants and firms in the market data business have analyzed the CTS and CQS data delays of May 6, as well as the quoting patterns observed on a variety of other days. It has been hypothesized that these delays are due to a manipulative practice called “quote-stuffing” in which high volumes of quotes are purposely sent to exchanges in order to create data delays that would afford the firm sending these quotes a trading advantage.
Our investigation to date reveals that the largest and most erratic price moves observed on May 6 were caused by withdrawals of liquidity and the subsequent execution of trades at stub quotes. We have interviewed many of the participants who withdrew their liquidity, including those who were party to significant numbers of buys and sells that occurred at stub quote prices. As described throughout this report each market participant had many and varied reasons for its specific actions and decisions on May 6. For the subset of those liquidity providers who rely on CTS and CQS data for trading decisions or data- integrity checks, delays in those feeds would have influenced their actions. However, the evidence does not support the hypothesis that delays in the CTS and CQS feeds triggered or otherwise caused the extreme volatility in security prices observed that day .
Nevertheless, as discussed in the Executive Summary, the events of May 6 clearly demonstrate the importance of data in today’s world of fully-automated trading strategies and systems. The SEC staff will therefore be working closely with the market centers to help ensure the integrity and reliability of their data processes, especially those that involve the publication of trades and quotes to the consolidated tape. In addition, the SEC staff will be working with the market centers in exploring their members’ trading practices to identify any unintentional or potentially abusive or manipulative conduct that may cause such system delays that inhibit the ability of market participants to engage in a fair and orderly process of price discovery.
There is no point to event comment on the preceding. By that we mean your confidence in stocks should now be back at 10 out of 10. Maybe even 11 out of 10.
Also, there is absolutely no explanation of why there was "buy side interest" to reappear at the very bottom. And yes, confidence is surging back.
Moral of the story: NO ONE MUST BE ALLOWED TO SELL MORE THAN ONE SHARE OF STOCK AT A TIME EVER!!! YOU WILL OVERLOAD THE MARKET, FLOOD THE NYSE'S LRP, CAUSE A LIQUIDITY CRISIS, DESTROY THE MARKET AND END CIVILIZATION AS WE KNOW IT
We are currently going through the full report below ( pdf ).
SEC Report on Flash Crash
This Has To Be A Joke
Posted by pthoreson on 1st of Oct 2010 at 01:54 pm
After reading the Executive Summary I am left with the impression that the SEC was utterly and completely clueless about how our markes work in this day of HFT, hedging, cross market arbitrage, and other computerized trading strategies. That part is very scary. While it appears they now have a better understanding, it remains to be seen if they will actually do something to prevent this ongoing issue, since the May crash there have been repeated instances of this same sort of event, only on a smaller scale. It happened with AAPL just the other day.
What is noticeably missing from this Report is a section on recommendations. Nothing. While the SEC did implement some temporary circuit breakers and trade breaking guidlines (they admit the "aberrant" May trades were broken with no tranparency or established guidelines) , these will expire in December and nothing I have read so far either recommends they be kept in place or recommends they be modified or allowed to end.
So, I guess it's back to Debbie Does Derivatives for the SEC.
Here is the full SEC
This Has To Be A Joke
Posted by pthoreson on 1st of Oct 2010 at 01:20 pm
Here is the full SEC report on the flash crash. I have not read it yet, probably won't until tonight. I do hope that the ZH crew will have their usual insightful analysis posted soon, however.
saturn6 is right, if you
Orchestrated Race to the bottom...
Posted by pthoreson on 1st of Oct 2010 at 01:16 pm
saturn6 is right, if you trade gold in Dollars and other nations are intervening to weaken their currencies, which has the effect of strengthening the dollar, then I would expect gold (in dollars) to pull back somewhat. But, in my view, no one nation can go it alone against Bazooka Ben. It is suicidal. The US Fed has more firepower to decimate the value of the dollar than any other nation, perhaps even groups of nations, has to buy those dollars and weaken their currency against the dollar.
Brasil has even threatened to issue bonds, to borrow, and to use their sovereign wealth fund, in order to buy dollars and stop the rise in value of the Real. That has never been done by anyone I am aware of, it is something on the level of a nuclear option. Brasil has been buying Billions of dollars in the open market, and still the Real is strengthening against the Dollar.
Title: Plenty more POMO coming I
POMO what? So much for the POMO theory. Stay with ...
Posted by pthoreson on 30th of Sep 2010 at 05:02 pm
I wouldn't worry, there are plenty more POMO scheduled.
The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on October 13, 2010.
______________________________
1Operations are tentatively scheduled to begin around 10:15 AM and close at 11:00 AM.
2Nominal coupon operations are specified as “Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase” and TIPS operations are specified as “Outright TIPS Purchase”
There is a site called
folks still read zeroclue.com?
Posted by pthoreson on 30th of Sep 2010 at 04:51 pm
There is a site called ZeroClue.com, but if you are referring to ZeroHedge.com, yes, I read it religiously. Compared with the drivel that comes out of the mainstream media it is a breath of fresh air and honesty and provides insight not available elsewhere. If you are aware of better financial news and comment sources, I am all ears.
Unbelievable. The US Fed Provides Advance Look to Insiders
Posted by pthoreson on 30th of Sep 2010 at 02:55 pm
I find this beyond belief. If this doesn't lead to Bernanke being fired, or the resignation of the Governors responsible for these leaks, then it simply confirms to me that the US Fed is just one huge fraud. Of course, many already believe that so call me naieve if you like.
Reuters has just released a stunning special report detailing how the Fed leaks all important, non-public, and ever so material, information to private parties. From the report :
On August 19, just nine days after the U.S. central bank surprised financial markets by deciding to buy more bonds to support a flagging economy, former Fed governor Larry Meyer sent a note to clients of his consulting firm with a breakdown of the policy-setting meeting.
The minutes from that same gathering of the powerful Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, are made available to the public -- but only after a three-week lag. So Meyer's clients were provided with a glimpse into what the Fed was thinking well ahead of other investors.
His note cited the views of "most members" and "many members" as he detailed increasingly sharp divisions among the officials who determine the nation's monetary policy.
The inside scoop, which explained how rising mortgage prepayments had prompted renewed central bank action, was simply too detailed to have come from anywhere but the Fed.
A respected economist, Meyer charges clients around $75,000 for his product, which includes a popular forecasting service. He frequently shares his research with reporters, though he kept this note out of the public eye. Reuters obtained a copy from a market source. Meyer declined to comment for this story, as did the Federal Reserve.
By necessity, the Fed spends a considerable amount of time talking to investment managers, bank economists and market strategists. Doing so helps it gather intelligence about the market and the economy that is invaluable in informing the bank's decisions on borrowing costs and lending programs.
But a Reuters investigation has found that the information flow sometimes goes both ways as Fed officials let their guard down with former colleagues and other close private sector contacts.
Frankly, we stopped right there, very much disgusted that we have been proven correct yet again when we asked rhetorically if " Bill Gross just confirmed on live TV that he has an "advance look" at non-public fed data ?". Now we know how it is that Bill Gross knew all too well that the Fed would lower its GDP expectations to 2% three weeks ahead of the minutes release. It also explains why PIMCO is ever so precise in going on margin in purchasing either bonds or MBS.
Fuck it.
This is beyond disgusting, but that is to what this bullshit country has devolved: leaking the most important decisions made on "behalf of the middle class" so that a few multi-billionaires can make a few extra soon to be worthless dollars.
We will indicate if and when Pimco goes on margin next when the Total Return Fund posts its holding distribution next in mid October, telegraphing what the Fed has told it about the November FOMC meeting, but frankly at this point it is irrelevant. It is now obvious that the Fed realizes all too well that all is lost and just feeding its wealthy clients (that's right, these people are the Fed's CLIENTS ) the last remaining scraps before it pulls the hyperinflation switch.
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Impact of Unchanged Issues on A/D Indicators
Posted by pthoreson on 27th of Sep 2010 at 12:29 pm
Here is the link to
Eliminate Stop Loss Orders?
Posted by pthoreson on 24th of Sep 2010 at 02:38 pm
Here is the link to the full White Paper. This has been put out by Themis Trading, not the SEC, and it represents their view of what the SEC is likely to do. Elliminating stop loss orders would make it much riskier for retail traders to participate in the markets, why this would even be considered (assuming it is being considered) is beyond me. Simply ban flash orders and eliminate HFT, require a minumum 2 second lifespan for every order, and prohibit co-located computers and maybe the public might regain some trust and faith.
Eliminate Stop Loss Orders?
Posted by pthoreson on 24th of Sep 2010 at 02:18 pm
With 20 consecutive weeks of mutual fund outflows already they are thinking of driving even more traders from the markets? The SEC has apparently not disconnected the porn feeds!
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Eliminating stop-loss orders may be one of the steps regulators will take in an attempt to prevent another so-called flash crash, according to a white paper published Friday. Analysts at Themis Trading identified four major recommendations that they believe Securities and Exchange Commission staff will make in response to the events of May 6. Most notably, they said, officials may want to scrap stop-loss orders. "[Stop-loss] orders were not the cause of the flash crash per se, but they resulted in enormous damage to many unsuspecting traditional investors. The SEC has indicated that it may require market order 'collars,' effectively converting market orders into limit orders," they wrote. The authors also suggested the SEC may introduce a limit up/down feature to stock circuit breakers, eliminate stub quotes and increase obligations for market markers.
I do not see eliminating high frequency trading, which certainly helpd if not actually caused the crash when the HFT machines were simply turned off, anywhere in there. These people have lost their minds.
Brasilian BOVESPA Now Second Largest in Market Value
Posted by pthoreson on 24th of Sep 2010 at 01:53 pm
Huge gamble for PBR on their massive share issuance, VALE doing a share buy back, and Brasil feeling suckered for having allowed Bernanke to convince them to fight the dollar appreciation a year ago while now considering the "nuclear" move of issuing debt to buy dollars and using their sovereign wealth fund to try to contain the Real from appreciating any further. Leveraged currency manipulation, wow. Lots going on here, and it is finally Spring and warm weather in Rio.
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- The Brazilian exchange has become the world's second-largest exchange, climbing in market value as a massive share sale by state-run oil giant Petrobras is expected to lift trading volume, the exchange's operator BM&FBovespa SA said Friday. The company said in a statement that based on Thursday's market closing, the Bovespa exchange's market capitalization has reached 30.4 billion reals, or $17.8 billion, larger than the London, Nasdaq and New York exchanges combined. The world's largest exchange is Hong Kong's, with a market capitalization of $19.8 billion, according to the statement. Late Thursday, Petrobras raised $67 billion in the largest share sale on record. The oil firm still has the option to sell additional shares.
NFLX
Posted by pthoreson on 23rd of Sep 2010 at 01:23 pm
Been watching NFLX for a potential short/intermediate term short. But, what is up with the spread? Acting more like GOOG than a $160 stock, and with 7 million volume so far today. Perhaps the HFT traders have not invaded this symbol?
AAPL is currently 13% over its
AAPL Hits Wedge Target
Posted by pthoreson on 23rd of Sep 2010 at 12:05 pm
AAPL is currently 13% over its 50MA. I need Cobra to run the stats on that one!