todays sideways action after the gap up looks like a 4th wave
consolidation, the MACD looks like it wants another push
higher. Therefore baring any crazy news, I would expect to
see another push up via some kind of wave 5. The pattern
could also be a bullish cup and handle potentially.
Nice 5th wave move today. Anyway that's where Elliot Wave
can help, since the gap up yesterday was clearly a wave
3. A little education, wave 3's are impulsive and
generally lack negative divergence, and the wave 3 top yesterday
had no negative divergence via the MACD or RSI. The rest of
the day consolidated into a triangle, wave 4. Now today we
have some kind of wave 5. Wave 5's can extend sometimes, so
it could either top out around here or near the previous highs or
just keep going.
Note the MACD, the potential for negative divergence exists, but
it is not a sell signal because divergence can be lost. The
MACD lines have to cross back down in order to justify the
divergence with a possible sell signal, so keep your eye on the
MACD. Also the stochastics below, watch the 80% level, if
stochastics falls below 80% and the MACD lines cross, then that
would be something to take note of.
Otherwise intra day I don't see any thing negative yet, all
the indicators are pointing up.
But last week, didn't you have this move up from the
991-992 area some sort of wave 4 of 5 down and that It could go
down in a wave 5 of 5? I seem to remember we could have gone up to
1015 or so and it still being a wave 4 of 5. That was one
reason I was looking to short up to 1015.
yes but we also said that the wave count was very tricky and we
said it could just rally plow right through it, remember we had
several counts and two of them said the market could just rally
straight up, we said it was not straight forward. that's what
happened. The pullback to SPX 990 was
not a wave 5, it was an
ABC pullback. Regardless no big deal there, you
can take shots at resistance and support with stops and if you are
stopped out so what. wave counts are not an exact
science.
sometimes wave counts they are very clear and work out
perfectly, sometimes they don't, just like all tech analysis, many
times trendlines and triangles and wedges and bull flags play out
perfect, sometimes they don't
I think the best trades are the breakouts on your 5 min SPX
using the wedges, triangles and trendlines. I would have made
a ton buying BGU or SSO on those breakouts and I would have been
trading with the trend, not against it!
it's amazing to me though how perfectly that 233 CCI bounced off
zero when the SPX hit 990, that was obviously a good support
level. This 60 min chart will be interesting one to watch
going forward
here's an updated 15 min SPX chart, as you can see it played
out, we got a new high today i.e. 5th wave. Now we have
divergence in place, but that alone is not a sell signal, just
something to note and we are now in some kind of 5th wave
however one thing to note, the opposite is also true, we now
have some positive divergence on a 15 min chart of the US
Dollar. The two (SPX and US Dollar) continue this inverse
relationship.
The scary thing is that if you are one who thinks we are in some
kind of long term bull market, then the US Dollar is going to have
to go to hell in order to support it.
SPX 15 min
Posted by matt on 8th of Sep 2009 at 04:28 pm
todays sideways action after the gap up looks like a 4th wave consolidation, the MACD looks like it wants another push higher. Therefore baring any crazy news, I would expect to see another push up via some kind of wave 5. The pattern could also be a bullish cup and handle potentially.
Nice 5th wave move today.
Posted by matt on 9th of Sep 2009 at 12:05 pm
Nice 5th wave move today. Anyway that's where Elliot Wave can help, since the gap up yesterday was clearly a wave 3. A little education, wave 3's are impulsive and generally lack negative divergence, and the wave 3 top yesterday had no negative divergence via the MACD or RSI. The rest of the day consolidated into a triangle, wave 4. Now today we have some kind of wave 5. Wave 5's can extend sometimes, so it could either top out around here or near the previous highs or just keep going.
Note the MACD, the potential for negative divergence exists, but it is not a sell signal because divergence can be lost. The MACD lines have to cross back down in order to justify the divergence with a possible sell signal, so keep your eye on the MACD. Also the stochastics below, watch the 80% level, if stochastics falls below 80% and the MACD lines cross, then that would be something to take note of.
Otherwise intra day I don't see any thing negative yet, all the indicators are pointing up.
matt, Yes this was a good
Posted by dario on 9th of Sep 2009 at 12:17 pm
matt,
Yes this was a good wave count this week.
But last week, didn't you have this move up from the 991-992 area some sort of wave 4 of 5 down and that It could go down in a wave 5 of 5? I seem to remember we could have gone up to 1015 or so and it still being a wave 4 of 5. That was one reason I was looking to short up to 1015.
yes but we also said
Posted by matt on 9th of Sep 2009 at 12:24 pm
yes but we also said that the wave count was very tricky and we said it could just rally plow right through it, remember we had several counts and two of them said the market could just rally straight up, we said it was not straight forward. that's what happened. The pullback to SPX 990 was not a wave 5, it was an ABC pullback. Regardless no big deal there, you can take shots at resistance and support with stops and if you are stopped out so what. wave counts are not an exact science.
sometimes wave counts they are very clear and work out perfectly, sometimes they don't, just like all tech analysis, many times trendlines and triangles and wedges and bull flags play out perfect, sometimes they don't
True. I think the best trades
Posted by dario on 9th of Sep 2009 at 12:34 pm
True.
I think the best trades are the breakouts on your 5 min SPX using the wedges, triangles and trendlines. I would have made a ton buying BGU or SSO on those breakouts and I would have been trading with the trend, not against it!
it's amazing to me though
Posted by matt on 9th of Sep 2009 at 12:31 pm
it's amazing to me though how perfectly that 233 CCI bounced off zero when the SPX hit 990, that was obviously a good support level. This 60 min chart will be interesting one to watch going forward
no divergence yet on the
Posted by matt on 9th of Sep 2009 at 12:15 pm
no divergence yet on the 5 min charts, and the TICK remains solidly above zero
here's an updated 15 min
Posted by matt on 9th of Sep 2009 at 10:30 am
here's an updated 15 min SPX chart, as you can see it played out, we got a new high today i.e. 5th wave. Now we have divergence in place, but that alone is not a sell signal, just something to note and we are now in some kind of 5th wave
however one thing to note, the opposite is also true, we now have some positive divergence on a 15 min chart of the US Dollar. The two (SPX and US Dollar) continue this inverse relationship.
The scary thing is that if you are one who thinks we are in some kind of long term bull market, then the US Dollar is going to have to go to hell in order to support it.
XLF 60 min
Posted by matt on 8th of Sep 2009 at 06:24 pm
However the XLF (Financial's ETF), is lagging and looks bear flagish on a 60 min chart
Potentially, how high do you
Posted by mkrmdz on 8th of Sep 2009 at 05:08 pm
Potentially, how high do you see this going?
Looks like you are betting
Posted by fkarlson on 8th of Sep 2009 at 04:39 pm
Looks like you are betting on a double top.