Does the divergence on the MACD seem significant here?

I'd like to add a question: "Which bottoming or topping pattern is the most reliable overall -- double tops, triple tops or a head and shoulders pattern?

This statement may be a predictor for the Yen in coming months:

In Japan Deputy Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said that USD/JPY's current level at around 90 "can be said to be a correction of the strong yen, but it isn't over yet". Also, Nishimura said that a level of 110 to 120 might be a concern as that would raise import costs. Markets took that as an indication that USD/JPY at 100 wouldn't be a problem. He also hit back as European officials and said that "Europe is in no position to criticise Japan having brought about a prolonged weakness of the euro as a result of their own policies, while Japan has supported Europe through purchases of bonds." Data released today saw trade deficit narrowed slightly to JPY -800.7b in December as exports dropped rose 2.4% while imports rose 1.2%. Year over year, exports to China continued to fall by -15.8% yoy while exports to US also dropped -0.8% yoy. Exports to Europe were also weak with Germany down -0.2% yoy, UK down -10.2% yoy and France down -16.8% yoy.

Big move short in the yen last night. Austerity appears to be out since Sep of last year. Wonder how far this will go? I am just becoming aware of this. Any thoughts?

Could you explain your notes a little, please? Thanks.

NPR just did a piece this morning on natural gas prices. Producers were interviewed who all gave a bleak outlook for near-term prices. In order to protect leases from expiration, there must be production, even though traditionally drilling would stop when prices were low. But now storage facilities are getting filled up. Will there be a renewed shift to run vehicles on natural gas? We'll have to wait for that answer. On the other hand, all new electric generators are being run on natural gas. Someday, the price will turn around.

How should we trade this move, if UNG is not a good one to use?

Thanks in advance,

Fred

NPR reported that Bernanke is now going to make public statements after each quarterly meeting. So perhaps the committee wants to give a unified perception to the public to backup the chairman's comments.

FED-early FOMC stmt: No change in $600b QE2 thru June or rates (FF still
targeted 0-1/4%) keeps `extended pd` and will `reg review` portfolio.
Language alterations say labor mkt `improving gradually` but drops econ
on `firmer footing` - now says recovery `proceeding at mod pace.` Again
mentions commods/oil but not Japan; adds a bit more talk on inflation
(`has picked up`) but expects rise `to be transitory`. Will pay close
attention to infl/expectations and sees underlying infl as `still
subdued`. Unemployment `remains elevated`. Fed will continue to monitor
outlook. Vote 10-0.

This is a good post, thanks, and an interesting development. Do you see DAL going higher from here?

Fred

Good video. While our taxpayer money is helping the big banks, why were we helping the bank of Libya?

Thanks Marketguy. It looks like there is better correlation when the RSI and MACD bottom at the same time rather than relying on the upward green arrows. Just a thought.

Fred

Thanks for the explanation, Matt. I knew the parameters for the two trades had to be different. I am hoping there will be more details given later to help one decide how or which trade to take.

Fred

I am confused. How can we be getting an alert this morning that SPY is just about to go short, that is a short trade added 4/01, and now the SPY system says that it might go long at the close of today's market?

Fred

Google Finance says they pay 18 cents a share for this quarter's end. I figure that is a little over 2% annually depending on share price at time of pay out.

Fred

Can anyone post the November, December and January Seasonality plots for Stock prices (S&P 500 or Dow)?

    I’ve noticed two things about market prices since the big jump up.  Stock like to regress back toward the “mean” and maybe will overshoot to the downside.  If this regression causes the greedy to become fearful, then we may see a trend reversal.

    I noticed after the Nov. 2 election the market went down and only revived when the Fed made its QE2 announcement.  From reading the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s etc, sentiment is mixed.  The GOP successes almost guarantee gridlock, causing investors to worry.

   The prices for the last 2 days have been going down in almost perfect anti-correlation with the UUP—the dollar’s value.  

    Does anyone have a take about the likelihood of the rally continuing upward in the near term?

Thanks Matt. That was very kind of you.

Fred Karlson

Some of us, like me, do not have time to do anything more than look at the daily newsletters. So, perhaps a notice on the nightly newsletter would be nice.

Fred Karlson

In this weekend's stock market newsletter, the last chart was #41. On line 33 of that chart it indicated that one should get out of a long position of the SPY on July 12. Yet in the evening newsletters of July 12 and 13, there was no mention of this. How is one to keep up with these recommendations?

Also, on the same chart #41, it indicates that money not invested in the market should be invested in an interest bearing account at 3.5%. Can one tell me where you can get short term rates like this today?

Fred Karlson