Posted by mamaduck on 16th of Aug 2009 at 10:11 pm
Is it possible that in the coming deflationary wave (the Big C),
while the USD will shoot up and all markets (including commodities)
come down, that Gold will be perceived as the "Other" safty trade?
That while oil, even silver and all markets come down due to debt
deleveraging, that there are enough skeptics on the USD out there
in the real world, that there will also be a flight to gold?
This does not go well with the current COT numbers, but maybe as
the markets go up in C of B, then gold will correct and the COT
will unwind substantially.
Posted by mamaduck on 17th of Aug 2009 at 01:27 am
that under some disastrous event (like major terrorist attack or
war or assassination, or catastrophic failure of some
major financial institutions) both USD and Gold will shoot
up... thus giving credence to both the USD C wave up, and Gold
inverse H&S, as well as a market and commodities meltdown.
Yes anything is possible, especially if something really bad
happened, let's hope not!
But for now, the inverse H&S pattern is not validated until
the neckline is broken. Right now it could go either
way. Baring any major catastrophe, if the US Dollar puts in a
major bottom, then I think gold will break to the downside
instead...we'll see
Yes is possible but remember Gold is under Gov's super controls.
September is Gold and Silver season but this is the first
year Gold is going in the season next to
the l000s
The time to buy gold will be during wave 3 down on the grand
super cycle as it starts to develop and carries out over the next
few years. Gold should go lower while the $USD marches higher now.
When the $USD peaks this time, Gold will have hit bottom for triple
digit price range. At that time, Gold will never see triple digit
prices for a long time to come. When real estate implodes and takes
several big banks with it along with some bank holidays showing
up more than likely. People will turn to Gold like
they did overpriced homes and buy buy buy. Another parabolic bubble
will be created. Funny how history repeats itself. A dollar
devaluation should bring Gold back down. Food for
thought...
Posted by dallassteve on 17th of Aug 2009 at 07:27 am
I agree that the time to buy gold will be during wave 3.
But the target of 700 by Elliott Wave may be too low. I
will be a buyer on any decline. This is an important
discussion, so please keep us updated on your thoughts.
Thanks.
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Gold Thoughts
Posted by mamaduck on 16th of Aug 2009 at 10:11 pm
Is it possible that in the coming deflationary wave (the Big C), while the USD will shoot up and all markets (including commodities) come down, that Gold will be perceived as the "Other" safty trade? That while oil, even silver and all markets come down due to debt deleveraging, that there are enough skeptics on the USD out there in the real world, that there will also be a flight to gold?
This does not go well with the current COT numbers, but maybe as the markets go up in C of B, then gold will correct and the COT will unwind substantially.
I welcome any comments.
Matt - It is possible....
Posted by mamaduck on 17th of Aug 2009 at 01:27 am
that under some disastrous event (like major terrorist attack or war or assassination, or catastrophic failure of some major financial institutions) both USD and Gold will shoot up... thus giving credence to both the USD C wave up, and Gold inverse H&S, as well as a market and commodities meltdown.
Yes anything is possible, especially
Posted by matt on 17th of Aug 2009 at 02:28 am
Yes anything is possible, especially if something really bad happened, let's hope not!
But for now, the inverse H&S pattern is not validated until the neckline is broken. Right now it could go either way. Baring any major catastrophe, if the US Dollar puts in a major bottom, then I think gold will break to the downside instead...we'll see
Yes is possible but remember
Posted by as2029 on 16th of Aug 2009 at 11:29 pm
Yes is possible but remember Gold is under Gov's super controls. September is Gold and Silver season but this is the first year Gold is going in the season next to the l000s
The time to buy gold
Posted by u00sas3 on 16th of Aug 2009 at 11:16 pm
The time to buy gold will be during wave 3 down on the grand super cycle as it starts to develop and carries out over the next few years. Gold should go lower while the $USD marches higher now. When the $USD peaks this time, Gold will have hit bottom for triple digit price range. At that time, Gold will never see triple digit prices for a long time to come. When real estate implodes and takes several big banks with it along with some bank holidays showing up more than likely. People will turn to Gold like they did overpriced homes and buy buy buy. Another parabolic bubble will be created. Funny how history repeats itself. A dollar devaluation should bring Gold back down. Food for thought...
gold wave 3
Posted by dallassteve on 17th of Aug 2009 at 07:27 am
I agree that the time to buy gold will be during wave 3. But the target of 700 by Elliott Wave may be too low. I will be a buyer on any decline. This is an important discussion, so please keep us updated on your thoughts. Thanks.