I am a trend trade too. what i was saying is that last couple of
days I've seen too many people trying to short the rally - why?
also, not sure I understand the newsletter - the "bigger
picuture" about ABC which implies that market will eventually crash
after this so called B wave up - I am not sure I agree with that
road map. at best you have to label a 50/50 chance.
those are monthly and weekly charts and they imply that the SPX
could go to 1000 and 1100! We said that we thought the market
would make a higher low and then rally one more time into the fall
time frame. So...we thought ultimately that there would be
more upside before the major downtrend occurred later this
fall.
Basically our longer term picture is playing out and nothing has
changed, therefore I see no reason to change our big picure
analysis. The market indexes remain below the long term
moving averages such as the 20 month and 89 week MA. But that
doesn't mean we don't play longs. I think ultimately the
market doesn't put in a true top until this fall
sometime.
Now can I be wrong, of course, nothing is certain, but so far
there is
no reasonto
change my long term count
at this timebecause it
hasn't even met my price
targets of 1000 and 1100 of the 38% and 50% Fibs.
Basically the
market is still in the major wave B that began in
March. Our targets were SPX 1000 and maybe 1120 based on the
38% and 50% Fibs.
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I am a trend trade
make some noise
Posted by yago on 15th of Jul 2009 at 02:04 pm
I am a trend trade too. what i was saying is that last couple of days I've seen too many people trying to short the rally - why?
also, not sure I understand the newsletter - the "bigger picuture" about ABC which implies that market will eventually crash after this so called B wave up - I am not sure I agree with that road map. at best you have to label a 50/50 chance.
those are monthly and weekly
Posted by matt on 15th of Jul 2009 at 02:09 pm
those are monthly and weekly charts and they imply that the SPX could go to 1000 and 1100! We said that we thought the market would make a higher low and then rally one more time into the fall time frame. So...we thought ultimately that there would be more upside before the major downtrend occurred later this fall.
Basically our longer term picture is playing out and nothing has changed, therefore I see no reason to change our big picure analysis. The market indexes remain below the long term moving averages such as the 20 month and 89 week MA. But that doesn't mean we don't play longs. I think ultimately the market doesn't put in a true top until this fall sometime.
Now can I be wrong, of course, nothing is certain, but so far there is no reasonto change my long term count at this timebecause it hasn't even met my price targets of 1000 and 1100 of the 38% and 50% Fibs. Basically the market is still in the major wave B that began in March. Our targets were SPX 1000 and maybe 1120 based on the 38% and 50% Fibs.