not sure if you guys will like this - but I feel too many people
on this site are a little too bearish about the market.
EW theory is not everything. the downtrend has been unprecedent
so the rally could be unprecedent too. what about if there is no
wave C to retest the march low and we just go up from here? the
bearish mindset will ruin your investment totally. sure you can
alwasy say 9 months later "hey I was wrong and let's move on". but
by then, you will realize the difference if you are open-minded
which means you have to consider a new bull market a 50/50
chance.
I think a lot of people on this site are trading very well. They
can switch from bearish to bullish bias very easily depending on
the clues that the market gives them. And that's one of the keys to
being a successful trader.
But yes, you are right. A lot of people here are bearish long
term. But they may be bullish in the intermediate term/short term.
Doesn't mean they're missing out on the long side. The long term is
harder to call this early, but most people here are swing traders.
They'll do well whether the market goes up or down in the short,
intermediate or long term.
Yes exactly. long term we are bearish. but intermediate
term the SPX could go to 1000 to 1100 and we would play that on the
Long side and make money and the short term wave count would tell
you that in plenty of time to play the long side. Plus
I have plenty of Long trade ideas on the watch list etc
The bearish rumblings on the blog the last week have been from
short term traders. If you are long term trader, then don't
get caught up in the short term rumblings on the blog, but for the
intermediate term, I have higher targets for this market.
In march after the market bottomed, I have a target of SPX 1000
- 1100, that is playing out and that is based on Elliot Wave.
I said that the SPX could easily go to 1100, but that 1000 would be
my first major target, those are 38% and 50% fib
retracements.
Now short term counts are tricky, but the longer term wave
counts have played out perfectly since 2007
anyway, just trade, when you get nice move, take some profits
and trade the mechanical systems. I also post a lot of trade
ideas, so play them too
It makes no sense to talk about bear and bull markets - better
to think of uptrending and donwtrending. EW is a roadmap and
NOT something to trade off of - with that said the EW outlook has
called for a rally which we are currently experiencing. We
will only know over time how things will unfold but we will NOT be
short unless the charts tell us to get short. Evidently, you
are not aware of what we have been saying since March because we
have been expecting a rally. Please do not make such
assumptions until you have reviewed our work over the past
year. As a two week member, you are not at all familiar with
what we have been stating over that time frame.
yago- we are trend traders. It doesn't matter if it's a
bull market or bear market, we make money. If the SPX trends
up to the 1100 area, that is still a bear market since that is not
even a 50% retracement. But so what, play the uptrend and play the
mechanical systems which are have blown away the market % move. the
SRS system is up about 250% this year, that blows away the market
return from the March lows.
Elliot wave is a road map, that's all. This whole move up,
once confirmed, would tell you that we are in a wave C up, which
should consist of 5 waves, plenty of time to play that.
Howver if this is the start of wave C, an pullback will come
sometime that will form a higher low and that's where swing traders
would buy.
I am a trend trade too. what i was saying is that last couple of
days I've seen too many people trying to short the rally - why?
also, not sure I understand the newsletter - the "bigger
picuture" about ABC which implies that market will eventually crash
after this so called B wave up - I am not sure I agree with that
road map. at best you have to label a 50/50 chance.
those are monthly and weekly charts and they imply that the SPX
could go to 1000 and 1100! We said that we thought the market
would make a higher low and then rally one more time into the fall
time frame. So...we thought ultimately that there would be
more upside before the major downtrend occurred later this
fall.
Basically our longer term picture is playing out and nothing has
changed, therefore I see no reason to change our big picure
analysis. The market indexes remain below the long term
moving averages such as the 20 month and 89 week MA. But that
doesn't mean we don't play longs. I think ultimately the
market doesn't put in a true top until this fall
sometime.
Now can I be wrong, of course, nothing is certain, but so far
there is
no reasonto
change my long term count
at this timebecause it
hasn't even met my price
targets of 1000 and 1100 of the 38% and 50% Fibs.
Basically the
market is still in the major wave B that began in
March. Our targets were SPX 1000 and maybe 1120 based on the
38% and 50% Fibs.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
make some noise
Posted by yago on 15th of Jul 2009 at 01:53 pm
not sure if you guys will like this - but I feel too many people on this site are a little too bearish about the market.
EW theory is not everything. the downtrend has been unprecedent so the rally could be unprecedent too. what about if there is no wave C to retest the march low and we just go up from here? the bearish mindset will ruin your investment totally. sure you can alwasy say 9 months later "hey I was wrong and let's move on". but by then, you will realize the difference if you are open-minded which means you have to consider a new bull market a 50/50 chance.
I think a lot of
Posted by cw12 on 15th of Jul 2009 at 02:14 pm
I think a lot of people on this site are trading very well. They can switch from bearish to bullish bias very easily depending on the clues that the market gives them. And that's one of the keys to being a successful trader.
But yes, you are right. A lot of people here are bearish long term. But they may be bullish in the intermediate term/short term. Doesn't mean they're missing out on the long side. The long term is harder to call this early, but most people here are swing traders. They'll do well whether the market goes up or down in the short, intermediate or long term.
Yes exactly. long term we
Posted by matt on 15th of Jul 2009 at 02:20 pm
Yes exactly. long term we are bearish. but intermediate term the SPX could go to 1000 to 1100 and we would play that on the Long side and make money and the short term wave count would tell you that in plenty of time to play the long side. Plus I have plenty of Long trade ideas on the watch list etc
The bearish rumblings on the blog the last week have been from short term traders. If you are long term trader, then don't get caught up in the short term rumblings on the blog, but for the intermediate term, I have higher targets for this market.
Anyway let's get off the soap box intra day.
In march after the market
Posted by matt on 15th of Jul 2009 at 02:06 pm
In march after the market bottomed, I have a target of SPX 1000 - 1100, that is playing out and that is based on Elliot Wave. I said that the SPX could easily go to 1100, but that 1000 would be my first major target, those are 38% and 50% fib retracements.
Now short term counts are tricky, but the longer term wave counts have played out perfectly since 2007
anyway, just trade, when you get nice move, take some profits and trade the mechanical systems. I also post a lot of trade ideas, so play them too
cool
Posted by yago on 15th of Jul 2009 at 02:08 pm
cool
It makes no sense to
Posted by steve on 15th of Jul 2009 at 02:05 pm
It makes no sense to talk about bear and bull markets - better to think of uptrending and donwtrending. EW is a roadmap and NOT something to trade off of - with that said the EW outlook has called for a rally which we are currently experiencing. We will only know over time how things will unfold but we will NOT be short unless the charts tell us to get short. Evidently, you are not aware of what we have been saying since March because we have been expecting a rally. Please do not make such assumptions until you have reviewed our work over the past year. As a two week member, you are not at all familiar with what we have been stating over that time frame.
yago - we are trend traders.
Posted by matt on 15th of Jul 2009 at 02:00 pm
yago - we are trend traders. It doesn't matter if it's a bull market or bear market, we make money. If the SPX trends up to the 1100 area, that is still a bear market since that is not even a 50% retracement. But so what, play the uptrend and play the mechanical systems which are have blown away the market % move. the SRS system is up about 250% this year, that blows away the market return from the March lows.
Elliot wave is a road map, that's all. This whole move up, once confirmed, would tell you that we are in a wave C up, which should consist of 5 waves, plenty of time to play that. Howver if this is the start of wave C, an pullback will come sometime that will form a higher low and that's where swing traders would buy.
I am a trend trade
Posted by yago on 15th of Jul 2009 at 02:04 pm
I am a trend trade too. what i was saying is that last couple of days I've seen too many people trying to short the rally - why?
also, not sure I understand the newsletter - the "bigger picuture" about ABC which implies that market will eventually crash after this so called B wave up - I am not sure I agree with that road map. at best you have to label a 50/50 chance.
those are monthly and weekly
Posted by matt on 15th of Jul 2009 at 02:09 pm
those are monthly and weekly charts and they imply that the SPX could go to 1000 and 1100! We said that we thought the market would make a higher low and then rally one more time into the fall time frame. So...we thought ultimately that there would be more upside before the major downtrend occurred later this fall.
Basically our longer term picture is playing out and nothing has changed, therefore I see no reason to change our big picure analysis. The market indexes remain below the long term moving averages such as the 20 month and 89 week MA. But that doesn't mean we don't play longs. I think ultimately the market doesn't put in a true top until this fall sometime.
Now can I be wrong, of course, nothing is certain, but so far there is no reasonto change my long term count at this timebecause it hasn't even met my price targets of 1000 and 1100 of the 38% and 50% Fibs. Basically the market is still in the major wave B that began in March. Our targets were SPX 1000 and maybe 1120 based on the 38% and 50% Fibs.