remember the 89 week MA and 20 month MA, ete come down over
time, so if it takes a couple of months for the SPX to pullback
some and then meander up in a choppy fashion to complete wave c of
primary wave B say to the 1000 level, then the 89 week MA will have
come down considerably as well and may just play catch up.
Time is a big factor
I think this posting might make somebody uncomfortable but I
still want to reiterate what I have said a few times lately.
Timing the market is not easy and sometimes dangerous. I read
the comments and listened to the update (weekly and daily). What I
have observed is that in terms of short term directions, so many
alternatives were given - bascially covering every possible market
movement. Then what is the point of providing them? I think the
reason of this is that predicting short-term direction is hard.
Recently in a few of the daily updates and including last
night's weeky update, I heard quite a few times that 'the odds are
favoring some kind of correction'. Well, it turned out guessing the
top is not a good idea (althought today is not over yet). believe
or not I still like to see Steve calling the preferred outcome
since 360 degree coverage doesn't seem to make sense to me.
The point I am trying to make is - let's give me your best
trade(s). From what I observed, the best trade seems like a
mid-term SPX 1000-1100 target. Thats' why I've been holding SPY and
not doing the short-term picking the top stuff. In every weekly
newsletter for the past two to three months, Matt has been saying
that he thinks the S&P will move to 1000-1100 area. And I
believe that is the best trade right now (of course I want to hear
from matt and steve). And some failures to call short-term
correction certainly proves that doing the swing trade right now on
the long side is better than drawing three or four different wave
counts on the daily basis.
Btw, I also think that the breakout trades ideas Matt posted are
great. Those ideas prove many times better than some stuff I
mentioned above.
Some people might not agree with me but that is fine. I am just
telling what I think - give me the better trades you have, also
don't be afraid of being wrong on some calls but I want to hear
your voices clear (like I said about Matt calling SPX 1000).
in life the sum of all probabilities for any future event always
equals 100%.
I find Matt and Steve discussion of all the likely possibilities
both short term and long term invaluable. As long as they give
their opinion (stated as such) as to which is more likely all the
information is useful even the unlikely ones. In 1971 it was
unlikely that Nixon (a republican) would take us off the gold
standard. Paying attention only to the likely cost me a lot of
money.
No one can predict the market (as far as I know) so we should
see their comments as guides and not as prophesies.
I for one don't want them to change their pattern.
I like Matt and Steve updates PERIOD .... They do
not know what sector or index I'm trading nor weather I'm a
daytrader or swing trader or short vs long timeline objective on my
trades.
The Updates each day are objective PERIOD ...
You as a trader must take the updated and then apply it to your
trading objective period. Key is only YOU can decide that not
BPT.
Example - I do not trade QQQQ index therefore the update they
provide doesn't apply to me so I listen real quick and move on to
section of update which applies to me.
Another Example - I do not trade GOLD so I do same thing.
I couldn't agree more with your observations. Nice
post. Sometimes, when so many "if/then" scenarios are drawn
up reading them simply becomes confusing and frustrating.
I couldn't agree more too as all of these scenarios and
alternate scenarios get quite confusing. I have noticed on
many occasions a alternate scenario will be mentioned, then
if the market goes in the way of that scenario then Matt will play
if up promptly and say he mentioned the possibility in
a previous post. If the market continues to play
out the scenario that was originally a alternate scenario
then that becomes the preferred scenario.
Last nights update a perfect example. Note was made of the
potential bullish wedges and positive divergences but neither of
them said the bullish resolution was the preferred count. There
were also mentions of bearish alternatives. Now that
the market is up we are reminded of the bullish alternative
scenario mentioned.
What if the market had been down today? Then I suppose we would
now be reading about the bearish scenarios that were mentioned last
night. Don't get me wrong, I think they both do a great job but it
would be nice if they got off the fence once in a while and gave us
a firm opinion. Instead their reasoning seems to be to present us
with all of the scenarios and tell us to make up our own mind based
on what sort of trader we are, our risk tolerances, time horizons
etc.
shawn-the wedges were for the short term, those tell you nothing
longer than that. The trend is up until the
SPX loses 876 and the 20
day MA, that simple. So then stay long if you want as long as
those levels hold
NOTHING is definitive - there is always a case for both sides
which we present. YOU must decide how to trade. The
short term call for a bounce is playing out, so did you play
it?? However those wedges do not tell you if the market will
form a lower high here or not, it only tells you to expect a bounce
which we are getting. Now if the
SPX goes over 910, then
we might have something, but that is a long way off!
enough of this guys, let's get back to trading, if you are not
making money, this is why, becaus you are worried about the wrong
things. Are you short SRS system? It shorted this
morning and is up nicely
yes, so the market is bouncing because of the bull wedges that
were in place, nothing surprising there, we pointed this out on
Friday, go see my posts from Friday. I covered my shorts on
Friday because of these wedges and pos div.
However to me the SPX needs to get over the 910 area to really
signal that the bounce has legs, but that is pretty far away
still.
On the other hand, the SPX needs to lose specifically the 876
level and the 20 day MA, so if it loses that, then it would get
ugly,however that is far away too now. we are in the middle
right now between support and resistance
are you guys short or something, jeez! why all the
emotion? normally when I see rants like this, it is because
someone is either losing money or they think they are missing a
trade.
Stop being emotional and
just trade
kurzweg- you miss the point, trendlines are lines in the sand,
support and resistance. go long or short at the breakoints,
that's it. You need to know where they are.
I know some great traders and they all have one thing in common,
they react to the market, they don't predict the market. You
identify support/resistance and trendlines and patterns and react
to them
Posted by dodgerdog on 18th of May 2009 at 11:24 am
That's the market kurzeg - NOTHING is definitive - there is
always a case for both sides which we present. YOU must
decide how to trade. The short term call for a bounce is
playing out.
I think you people are missing the point. You want to be
told what is the best thing to do, rather than learn to see it for
yourself. And that's fine. But the majority of people
here -- active on the blog at least -- are interested in learning
more about how to trade well.
What matt and steve do is great because they just lay out what is
happening, every day, every week. If there are big potential
setups happening they talk about them. If there's nothing
clear happening, they give the various potential scenarios -- so
that people who are interested can watch the markwt unfold and see
which way it goes. If you don't
want to be bothered with any of that, and just be told what to do,
that's fine. Just pick out the infoprmation you want.
But its ridiculous to ask them not to give all that
information. Its valuable and many people make good use of
it.
as Matt stated many times, this site is not only for day traders
but also swing traders. And believe or not, not everyone here is
experienced trader who just wants to get the possible outcomes so
the trade can decide him or herself. People do expect to get
directions. As I said, I am not expecting every call to be right.
Give me your best trade idea (basically in terms of odds, what do
you think will happend next). And I judge the call myself.
But what I don't want to see is indiection or pointing to all
possible directions and come back later to say - hey I was right!
Many times when I held my SPY and heard the shortterm market
correction preferred account, it was very tempting to do a short
term trade. but ... hehe
Unless we are listening to different update last night, the
summary was clear - odds favor market correction but we will adjust
as it goes. Fine - make the call and if necessary change it when it
is not correct. You CANNOT be right all the time.
I did my part, I look at the chart and I listened to all
the updates. I saw the only thing that has not changed (flip flop
or whatever) is the mid-term bullish call. So I chose that
one.
Posted by dodgerdog on 18th of May 2009 at 11:40 am
Let me make it perfectly clear:
There is NOTHING definitive about the market - only
probabilities. If you want certainty then put your money in a
CD. Now, with respect to the market, the odds favor that a
pullback is unfolding off the SPX 930 highs since the uptrend line
AND many of our trending indicators have now given sell
signals. As a result, we became more defensive last
week.
On Friday, we
noticed that the SPX was forming bullish falling wedges on the
short term charts which suggested a bounce was likely to unfold
which is what we're seeing today and this was posted on
Friday. However, the market HAS YET to make new highs so it
could simply be a correction to the INITIAL LEG DOWN. Thus,
we'll need to see if this rally picks up steam allowing it to make
new highs (our alternative count). As of now,
NOTHING has
changedwith respect to our defensive position as
yet.
that is exactly the reason I posted my initial message - you
just have to be right every time or you can not admit you are wrong
at all.
you made a great call about the market down leg and you made a
great call about mid term rally. why in the world you have to prove
you are right in every day prediction. man, that puzzles me big
time
Btw, you don't have liabilities - you didn't make me lose money
- I picked the mid term direction and sticking with it.
jlink -- here's what I don't get...........if you were
criticizing one of the members on the blog I could at least
understand that. But matt and steve are
who they are and they do what they do, and this is what they do,
and enough people find it valuable that they have this site and
this blog....................if you don't like what matt and steve
do, or how matt and steve are, that's fine. So leave,
and go find a site you like. Why put all this energy
into it?
hehe, I know I am too picky sometimes. But since I don't think I
am a fool, I just can not stand people treating other peoplpe like
fools. same reason I don't like CNBC.
btw, it is not necessary to use the "if you don't like it,
leave" defense. I am still trying to take advantage of this site.
As I said, I like the mid term call but not the short-term
indirection or covering everything approach.
If I may interject...I think this is a case of the subscriber
not understanding how to apply ta and how ta is to be used...it
sounds like the subscriber is looking for an absolute which ta does
not provide...
we're going to talk over the phone after the market closes, so
let's just let the issue die for now on the blog. We're all
professionals here, let's get back to trying to make some money
Posted by dodgerdog on 18th of May 2009 at 11:59 am
It has nothing to do with being right or wrong - I'm wrong
plenty of times. We don't make predictions here - instead we
aim to provide the various alternatives and side with the ones that
have the highest probabilities of unfolding. But it's only
prudent to provide alternatives so our members can adjust if we are
wrong. Make sense?
again let's move away from this and go back to productive
trading. For example, could have been looking for nice day
trade setups for all of us here, but instead I've been replying on
the blog for the last 2 hrs.
there is nothing to admit wrong? nothing has changed
with the charts. The market bounced, but has not formed a
higher high, if 910 is taken out then we'll reconsider since
that would be greater than a 62% retrace, and if a higher
high is formed, then we'll say yeah we were wrong. but
nothing has changed right now, the market bounced today, so what,
it has let to form even close to a higher low, the SPX is only at
900.
btw, since I picked a mid term target of SPX1000-1100, I really
don't have much short term trading to do other than debating some
philosophical useless stuff :-(
yes the odds favored that and they still favor it, however we
had nice bull wedges in place with positive divergence and the SPX
was right at the 20 day MA where it bounced off.
We thought that the market would have a bounce today and
that's exactly what is happening.It is still our opinion
for now that this bounce will produce a lower high, but we'll see,
just take it one day at a time.
Now that the market has bounced and has broken out of the
wedges,
look to see if it forms a
lower high or higher high and see what the internals are on the
bounce
Just because you think there could a correction doesn't mean
that you don't' play Longs or stay short
we provide the breakpoints, support/resistance, those are
potential inflection areas, so react to those areas. the 20
MA on the SPX is important and especially the 876 area.
Yes I think the SPX will make it up to 1000 or even 1100, but it
will probably not go straight up there
for the market, keep an eye on the
30 and 60 min index
charts, on the 30 min SPX chart, the stochastics is already
overbought, it was oversold and that is pretty fast IMO.
Normally it would take a couple days for that to occur.
However, the 60 min stochastics still has room to go to get
overbought, but it's moving up pretty quickly
not trying to be a smart ass, but I kind of try to observe the
behaviors of your guys' calls. I think your calling SPX 1000 is
firm and consistent, and that is one I am going to stick with. But
giving so many short terms alternatives (not even mentioning many
of them are not timely accurate recently), I will not pick tht
market top.
Posted by dodgerdog on 18th of May 2009 at 11:20 am
jlink - NOTHING has changed from my updates - they are
completely valid. Just trade your plan with risk management
in place. The market broke out of the falling wedges that
formed on Friday - I clearly stated this favored upside near term
but the real question is if the rally will have legs to make new
highs immediately or will simply be a bounce that makes a lower
high. My annotations on Friday conveyed these thoughts well
ahead of today's move.
that's fine, stay with that. remember our 1000 SPX call is
for intermediate term. so if you are an intermediate term
trader, then stay long. However we have a lot of short term
traders and so we have to look at that. If the SPX does have
a decent pullback it could go all the way to the low 800's, however
I think it will form a higher low and rally again,
however you would have to
be able to stomach a deep pullback if it occurs. If
you can and you are an intermediate term trader, then you should be
able to, but for short term traders, they would not
and we don't guess tops here, we show support and resistance and
the intermediate and long term trends
last night we favored a
bounce today or early this week because of the bull wedges and
that's what we got,! now we have to see where it
goes it is well form the highs and so watch to see if it
forms a lower high or
not. However one thing that I don't like is how the
stochastics are working their way up to overbought so quickly,
generally this takes a couple days on 60 min charts, not a couple
hr
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watch out for Bombay Stock
Posted by 1800promote on 18th of May 2009 at 09:27 am
watch out for Bombay Stock exchange. It looks like it put a capitulation rally today...and hit the 89 ema weekly.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BSE&p=W&st=1999-02-11&id=p46469894766&a=132791940&listNum=11
looks like it is 227
Posted by u00sas3 on 18th of May 2009 at 09:54 am
looks like it is 227 points from 89 week moving average maing
remember the 89 week MA
Posted by matt on 18th of May 2009 at 09:56 am
remember the 89 week MA and 20 month MA, ete come down over time, so if it takes a couple of months for the SPX to pullback some and then meander up in a choppy fashion to complete wave c of primary wave B say to the 1000 level, then the 89 week MA will have come down considerably as well and may just play catch up. Time is a big factor
I think this posting might
Posted by jlink on 18th of May 2009 at 10:52 am
I think this posting might make somebody uncomfortable but I still want to reiterate what I have said a few times lately.
Timing the market is not easy and sometimes dangerous. I read the comments and listened to the update (weekly and daily). What I have observed is that in terms of short term directions, so many alternatives were given - bascially covering every possible market movement. Then what is the point of providing them? I think the reason of this is that predicting short-term direction is hard.
Recently in a few of the daily updates and including last night's weeky update, I heard quite a few times that 'the odds are favoring some kind of correction'. Well, it turned out guessing the top is not a good idea (althought today is not over yet). believe or not I still like to see Steve calling the preferred outcome since 360 degree coverage doesn't seem to make sense to me.
The point I am trying to make is - let's give me your best trade(s). From what I observed, the best trade seems like a mid-term SPX 1000-1100 target. Thats' why I've been holding SPY and not doing the short-term picking the top stuff. In every weekly newsletter for the past two to three months, Matt has been saying that he thinks the S&P will move to 1000-1100 area. And I believe that is the best trade right now (of course I want to hear from matt and steve). And some failures to call short-term correction certainly proves that doing the swing trade right now on the long side is better than drawing three or four different wave counts on the daily basis.
Btw, I also think that the breakout trades ideas Matt posted are great. Those ideas prove many times better than some stuff I mentioned above.
Some people might not agree with me but that is fine. I am just telling what I think - give me the better trades you have, also don't be afraid of being wrong on some calls but I want to hear your voices clear (like I said about Matt calling SPX 1000).
good luck,
jlink
my 2 cents...
Posted by cdjd on 18th of May 2009 at 11:10 am
in life the sum of all probabilities for any future event always equals 100%.
I find Matt and Steve discussion of all the likely possibilities both short term and long term invaluable. As long as they give their opinion (stated as such) as to which is more likely all the information is useful even the unlikely ones. In 1971 it was unlikely that Nixon (a republican) would take us off the gold standard. Paying attention only to the likely cost me a lot of money.
No one can predict the market (as far as I know) so we should see their comments as guides and not as prophesies.
I for one don't want them to change their pattern.
Comment to your Post - BPT Updates
Posted by cspirit on 18th of May 2009 at 11:05 am
I like Matt and Steve updates PERIOD .... They do not know what sector or index I'm trading nor weather I'm a daytrader or swing trader or short vs long timeline objective on my trades.
The Updates each day are objective PERIOD ...
You as a trader must take the updated and then apply it to your trading objective period. Key is only YOU can decide that not BPT.
Example - I do not trade QQQQ index therefore the update they provide doesn't apply to me so I listen real quick and move on to section of update which applies to me.
Another Example - I do not trade GOLD so I do same thing.
I couldn't agree more with
Posted by kurzweg on 18th of May 2009 at 11:01 am
I couldn't agree more with your observations. Nice post. Sometimes, when so many "if/then" scenarios are drawn up reading them simply becomes confusing and frustrating.
I couldn't agree more too
Posted by shawnp on 18th of May 2009 at 11:32 am
I couldn't agree more too as all of these scenarios and alternate scenarios get quite confusing. I have noticed on many occasions a alternate scenario will be mentioned, then if the market goes in the way of that scenario then Matt will play if up promptly and say he mentioned the possibility in a previous post. If the market continues to play out the scenario that was originally a alternate scenario then that becomes the preferred scenario.
Last nights update a perfect example. Note was made of the potential bullish wedges and positive divergences but neither of them said the bullish resolution was the preferred count. There were also mentions of bearish alternatives. Now that the market is up we are reminded of the bullish alternative scenario mentioned.
What if the market had been down today? Then I suppose we would now be reading about the bearish scenarios that were mentioned last night. Don't get me wrong, I think they both do a great job but it would be nice if they got off the fence once in a while and gave us a firm opinion. Instead their reasoning seems to be to present us with all of the scenarios and tell us to make up our own mind based on what sort of trader we are, our risk tolerances, time horizons etc.
shawn -the wedges were for the
Posted by matt on 18th of May 2009 at 11:35 am
shawn -the wedges were for the short term, those tell you nothing longer than that. The trend is up until the SPX loses 876 and the 20 day MA, that simple. So then stay long if you want as long as those levels hold
NOTHING is definitive - there is always a case for both sides which we present. YOU must decide how to trade. The short term call for a bounce is playing out, so did you play it?? However those wedges do not tell you if the market will form a lower high here or not, it only tells you to expect a bounce which we are getting. Now if the SPX goes over 910, then we might have something, but that is a long way off!
enough of this guys, let's get back to trading, if you are not making money, this is why, becaus you are worried about the wrong things. Are you short SRS system? It shorted this morning and is up nicely
yes, so the market is
Posted by matt on 18th of May 2009 at 11:46 am
yes, so the market is bouncing because of the bull wedges that were in place, nothing surprising there, we pointed this out on Friday, go see my posts from Friday. I covered my shorts on Friday because of these wedges and pos div.
However to me the SPX needs to get over the 910 area to really signal that the bounce has legs, but that is pretty far away still.
On the other hand, the SPX needs to lose specifically the 876 level and the 20 day MA, so if it loses that, then it would get ugly,however that is far away too now. we are in the middle right now between support and resistance
are you guys short or something, jeez! why all the emotion? normally when I see rants like this, it is because someone is either losing money or they think they are missing a trade. Stop being emotional and just trade
SRS
Posted by cdjd on 18th of May 2009 at 11:41 am
No I am not short SRS (long URE) I was too busy spending 2 cents to pay attention.
kurzweg - you miss the point,
Posted by matt on 18th of May 2009 at 11:30 am
kurzweg - you miss the point, trendlines are lines in the sand, support and resistance. go long or short at the breakoints, that's it. You need to know where they are.
I know some great traders and they all have one thing in common, they react to the market, they don't predict the market. You identify support/resistance and trendlines and patterns and react to them
That's the market kurzeg -
Posted by dodgerdog on 18th of May 2009 at 11:24 am
That's the market kurzeg - NOTHING is definitive - there is always a case for both sides which we present. YOU must decide how to trade. The short term call for a bounce is playing out.
kurzweg
Posted by Michael on 18th of May 2009 at 11:16 am
I think you people are missing the point. You want to be told what is the best thing to do, rather than learn to see it for yourself. And that's fine. But the majority of people here -- active on the blog at least -- are interested in learning more about how to trade well. What matt and steve do is great because they just lay out what is happening, every day, every week. If there are big potential setups happening they talk about them. If there's nothing clear happening, they give the various potential scenarios -- so that people who are interested can watch the markwt unfold and see which way it goes. If you don't want to be bothered with any of that, and just be told what to do, that's fine. Just pick out the infoprmation you want. But its ridiculous to ask them not to give all that information. Its valuable and many people make good use of it.
as Matt stated many times,
Posted by jlink on 18th of May 2009 at 11:27 am
as Matt stated many times, this site is not only for day traders but also swing traders. And believe or not, not everyone here is experienced trader who just wants to get the possible outcomes so the trade can decide him or herself. People do expect to get directions. As I said, I am not expecting every call to be right. Give me your best trade idea (basically in terms of odds, what do you think will happend next). And I judge the call myself.
But what I don't want to see is indiection or pointing to all possible directions and come back later to say - hey I was right! Many times when I held my SPY and heard the shortterm market correction preferred account, it was very tempting to do a short term trade. but ... hehe
Unless we are listening to different update last night, the summary was clear - odds favor market correction but we will adjust as it goes. Fine - make the call and if necessary change it when it is not correct. You CANNOT be right all the time.
I did my part, I look at the chart and I listened to all the updates. I saw the only thing that has not changed (flip flop or whatever) is the mid-term bullish call. So I chose that one.
Let me make it perfectly
Posted by dodgerdog on 18th of May 2009 at 11:40 am
Let me make it perfectly clear:
There is NOTHING definitive about the market - only probabilities. If you want certainty then put your money in a CD. Now, with respect to the market, the odds favor that a pullback is unfolding off the SPX 930 highs since the uptrend line AND many of our trending indicators have now given sell signals. As a result, we became more defensive last week. On Friday, we noticed that the SPX was forming bullish falling wedges on the short term charts which suggested a bounce was likely to unfold which is what we're seeing today and this was posted on Friday. However, the market HAS YET to make new highs so it could simply be a correction to the INITIAL LEG DOWN. Thus, we'll need to see if this rally picks up steam allowing it to make new highs (our alternative count). As of now, NOTHING has changedwith respect to our defensive position as yet.
that is exactly the reason
Posted by jlink on 18th of May 2009 at 11:53 am
that is exactly the reason I posted my initial message - you just have to be right every time or you can not admit you are wrong at all.
you made a great call about the market down leg and you made a great call about mid term rally. why in the world you have to prove you are right in every day prediction. man, that puzzles me big time
Btw, you don't have liabilities - you didn't make me lose money - I picked the mid term direction and sticking with it.
jlink -- here's what I
Posted by Michael on 18th of May 2009 at 12:03 pm
jlink -- here's what I don't get...........if you were criticizing one of the members on the blog I could at least understand that. But matt and steve are who they are and they do what they do, and this is what they do, and enough people find it valuable that they have this site and this blog....................if you don't like what matt and steve do, or how matt and steve are, that's fine. So leave, and go find a site you like. Why put all this energy into it?
hehe, I know I am
Posted by jlink on 18th of May 2009 at 12:08 pm
hehe, I know I am too picky sometimes. But since I don't think I am a fool, I just can not stand people treating other peoplpe like fools. same reason I don't like CNBC.
btw, it is not necessary
Posted by jlink on 18th of May 2009 at 12:09 pm
btw, it is not necessary to use the "if you don't like it, leave" defense. I am still trying to take advantage of this site. As I said, I like the mid term call but not the short-term indirection or covering everything approach.
nothing has changed with the
Posted by matt on 18th of May 2009 at 12:11 pm
nothing has changed with the charts, nothing has changed technically with todays bounce, why is that so hard to understand?
If I may interject...I think
Posted by chlo888 on 18th of May 2009 at 12:17 pm
If I may interject...I think this is a case of the subscriber not understanding how to apply ta and how ta is to be used...it sounds like the subscriber is looking for an absolute which ta does not provide...
we're going to talk over
Posted by matt on 18th of May 2009 at 12:23 pm
we're going to talk over the phone after the market closes, so let's just let the issue die for now on the blog. We're all professionals here, let's get back to trying to make some money
It has nothing to do
Posted by dodgerdog on 18th of May 2009 at 11:59 am
It has nothing to do with being right or wrong - I'm wrong plenty of times. We don't make predictions here - instead we aim to provide the various alternatives and side with the ones that have the highest probabilities of unfolding. But it's only prudent to provide alternatives so our members can adjust if we are wrong. Make sense?
yes and besides, nothing has
Posted by matt on 18th of May 2009 at 12:03 pm
yes and besides, nothing has changed technically
again let's move away from this and go back to productive trading. For example, could have been looking for nice day trade setups for all of us here, but instead I've been replying on the blog for the last 2 hrs.
So let's move on to actually trading please.
there is nothing to admit
Posted by matt on 18th of May 2009 at 11:57 am
there is nothing to admit wrong? nothing has changed with the charts. The market bounced, but has not formed a higher high, if 910 is taken out then we'll reconsider since that would be greater than a 62% retrace, and if a higher high is formed, then we'll say yeah we were wrong. but nothing has changed right now, the market bounced today, so what, it has let to form even close to a higher low, the SPX is only at 900.
again let's get back to productive trading
btw, since I picked a
Posted by jlink on 18th of May 2009 at 11:55 am
btw, since I picked a mid term target of SPX1000-1100, I really don't have much short term trading to do other than debating some philosophical useless stuff :-(
OK
Posted by Michael on 18th of May 2009 at 11:32 am
OK
yes the odds favored that
Posted by matt on 18th of May 2009 at 10:59 am
yes the odds favored that and they still favor it, however we had nice bull wedges in place with positive divergence and the SPX was right at the 20 day MA where it bounced off. We thought that the market would have a bounce today and that's exactly what is happening.It is still our opinion for now that this bounce will produce a lower high, but we'll see, just take it one day at a time.
Now that the market has bounced and has broken out of the wedges, look to see if it forms a lower high or higher high and see what the internals are on the bounce
Just because you think there could a correction doesn't mean that you don't' play Longs or stay short
we provide the breakpoints, support/resistance, those are potential inflection areas, so react to those areas. the 20 MA on the SPX is important and especially the 876 area.
Yes I think the SPX will make it up to 1000 or even 1100, but it will probably not go straight up there
for the market, keep an
Posted by matt on 18th of May 2009 at 11:06 am
for the market, keep an eye on the 30 and 60 min index charts, on the 30 min SPX chart, the stochastics is already overbought, it was oversold and that is pretty fast IMO. Normally it would take a couple days for that to occur. However, the 60 min stochastics still has room to go to get overbought, but it's moving up pretty quickly
I am currently holding SPY
Posted by jlink on 18th of May 2009 at 11:03 am
I am currently holding SPY since about two weeks ago. so thank you for calling the mid-term target.
but make no mistake, listening to last night Steve's comment, he said clearly the odds favor some market correction, but the alternatives are .....
DO you call that "exactly what you said?"
not trying to be a
Posted by jlink on 18th of May 2009 at 11:06 am
not trying to be a smart ass, but I kind of try to observe the behaviors of your guys' calls. I think your calling SPX 1000 is firm and consistent, and that is one I am going to stick with. But giving so many short terms alternatives (not even mentioning many of them are not timely accurate recently), I will not pick tht market top.
jlink - NOTHING has changed
Posted by dodgerdog on 18th of May 2009 at 11:20 am
jlink - NOTHING has changed from my updates - they are completely valid. Just trade your plan with risk management in place. The market broke out of the falling wedges that formed on Friday - I clearly stated this favored upside near term but the real question is if the rally will have legs to make new highs immediately or will simply be a bounce that makes a lower high. My annotations on Friday conveyed these thoughts well ahead of today's move.
that's fine, stay with that.
Posted by matt on 18th of May 2009 at 11:10 am
that's fine, stay with that. remember our 1000 SPX call is for intermediate term. so if you are an intermediate term trader, then stay long. However we have a lot of short term traders and so we have to look at that. If the SPX does have a decent pullback it could go all the way to the low 800's, however I think it will form a higher low and rally again, however you would have to be able to stomach a deep pullback if it occurs. If you can and you are an intermediate term trader, then you should be able to, but for short term traders, they would not
and we don't guess tops here, we show support and resistance and the intermediate and long term trends
last night we favored a bounce today or early this week because of the bull wedges and that's what we got,! now we have to see where it goes it is well form the highs and so watch to see if it forms a lower high or not. However one thing that I don't like is how the stochastics are working their way up to overbought so quickly, generally this takes a couple days on 60 min charts, not a couple hr