Posted by junkmaylbox on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 05:52 pm
Dodger, I did exactly what you suggested. I held a short from
Friday, a gain then which turned into a loss. I closed that short
pretty much after I had sensed the market was strong, with a small
loss. I will review the yesterday's update again, thanks for the
hint.
Posted by dodgerdog on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 06:43 pm
Roy so are you telling me you reversed and went long today as I
suggested? If you did you should of had an excellent day. I
clearly stated that a break of the SPX trendline on the 30 minute
chart would usher in some type of rally (had no idea how strong)
which could be played initially as a trade to the long side.
Finally, I said that you should only consider a short if you get a
TRIGGER which never occurred.
Looking forward, I can see two scenarios in the short
term. One a reversal down tomorrow (maybe after a some
further upside probing) which would take the indices back down to
test the broken channel or the market continues to rally up to
higher targets (SPX 875) before pausing. I give more credence
to the first scenario BUT I will not consider shorting until I get
a TRIGGER to do so. In addition, I will immediately put a
STOP in place at the time of entry.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 08:58 pm
No, Steve I have stayed in cash for the rest of the day. I burnt
myself a bit by trying to game pullbacks, so I decided to wait out
for a deeper pullback and then go long. I didn't want to go against
the market, it's way too strong here.
Once the resistance at 805 was clearly taken out, the upside
looked limited to me (810 to 825). Two factors confused me today:
one, the 5,3 stochastic daily was on a sell signal, and Matt's gap
handling strategy suggested selling the gap instead of buying it.
On the other hand, the magnitude of the gap this morning suggested
a huge up day, which it turned out to be prescient.
I only regret not taking profits on Friday, hoping to gain more
of them at the completion of wave 2.
I am going to review your selling cues from last night's
updates. I need to get a check list of buy and sell signals and
follow it like a drill. Perhaps, I should get a stockcharts
membership to be able to follow the $tick intraday charts or its
equivalent. Matt also mentioned the volume indicator today, I need
to figure out what it is.
Matt's intraday charts are really helpful when he posts them. So
are the strong support and resistance zones from nightly updates.
So are Matt's indicators on his charts. I learnt to follow MACD and
volume versus average volume, and get various signals from
mechanical systems on 5,6,15 and 30 minute charts. I have yet to
make good use of CCI(75), RSI(14). I don't have TRIX(15,9) on my
StrategyDest platform, only TRIX(10) whatever it means.
I am leaning towards swing trades now, so have a big picture for
a day ahead (up and down) would be helpful. I don't know how
feasible it is though, and whether or not you have time for such
prognosis. Matt works his tail off, no doubt about that :(
Posted by panaspor on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 10:10 pm
junkmaylbox - I don't usually reply to any sites. However,
having tried a lot of so called investor sites, I have found this
one to be the best, that is until today. Factually, I
have never made money on any other site, other than this one.
That tells you how much investor experience I have and what most so
called investor sites are. But today, I am sitting on
a huge potential loss (no I have not sold my shorts, but
hoping for a retracetment tomorrow) on the S&P. I just
followed the 5,3,3, 60 day S&P 500 signal. However,
junkmaylbox, I sat there ljust ike you. not believing what I
saw. Admittedly, like Matt described, I turned into a deer in
the headlights and could not even move. I was short since
last week when the signal turned negative. No where did I see
it cross again, to the positve side. I am trying to learn
about from site about charting, but to watch I don't know how may
time interval charts and to become a member of another site,
Stockcharts, just to do it, why should I do that when I am already
paying for this site. I don't have time to sit in front of a
computer all day. That is why I subscribed to the site, as I
don't have the time luxury to do that.
I do read most of the comments on the site and the most
underated of all is the comment from Matt, "News, Trumps the
Charts". This was big news and was designed to be.
Saying that, I wonder what will happen to the markets when Guitner
speaks again, I belief, this Thursday.
Posted by dodgerdog on 24th of Mar 2009 at 12:30 am
You MUST not simply depend upon the 5,3 stochastics indicator
alone for entries and extis. It has been quite useful but is
best used in conjunction with other indicators. Lastly, a
STOP needs to be put in place PRIOR or SIMULTANEOUS with your order
and then ADHERED to so that you do not realize large losses.
Live to fight the next battle.
I agree with your sentiments about having to join Stockcharts
just to be able to benefit from matt/steve's charts....
Or would it really have killed either of them to re-post the
chart from last night again and say "look we are busting above 780
SPX and we think that is a problem for shorts?"
yeah, that is probably asking for too much hand holding. but it
may have kept you and others from the "deer in the headlights
syndrome" x
Posted by dodgerdog on 24th of Mar 2009 at 12:48 am
I have to say this guys - if you're truly serious about trading
you need real time intraday charts. If not Stockcharts then
some other service will do but you really need to have this in
place to trade effectively. The cost of our service is a joke
and should be considerably higher compared to other services who
offer 1/10 the material and service we do. If you don't have
the capital to trade then you should NOT be risking it by
trading. If these services or charts save you from one loss
they pay for themselves over and over. Just think about that
for a minute. Enough said.
Posted by dylan398 on 24th of Mar 2009 at 09:08 am
dodger,
then maybe you should let the people know when they sign
up what kind of service they are going to recieve........many
just want you to pick stocks for them and tell them when to buy and
when to sell.....
BestFreeCharts offers--it should be no surprise--free charts.
Their fifteen minute charts are useful in conjunction with
some of the swing trade mechanical systems devised by Matt and
Steve.
Posted by averageguy on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 10:54 pm
Panaspor , sorry for your paper loss . I`ve been at BPT almost
7mths. It took me 2 tuff mths. to realize it`s not that simple to
change your trading style . After some troubled trades I realized
that I had to go back to PAPER TRADING until I was very profitable
on paper with my new style .I`m a bonehead so it took me about 3
mths only cash trading the most obvious trades that jumped out me
before I went full time trading . Because of my patient I have hit
my goals for 5 weeks! Today was a confusing day because I WAS
OVERCONFIDENT and doing some things in live trading that I
did`nt " simulate " first . I find improving is a
reward in itself , so without misstakes I would`nt improve .
Wellcome to the blog and best of luck to you . Ed
Posted by panaspor on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 11:15 pm
averageguy - You're comments are more than appreciated. I
obviously have to change the way I trade and I think you're idea of
paper trading for a while, might be the best way to go.
panaspor, Several comments on what you wrote. One, I can feel
you pain. Losses, even paper losses, weigh hard on one's psyche.
What usually happens is that losses are realized at the very
bottom, right before a reversal take place. Others like take their
wins and they create pressure on you -- this pressure is very real
and physically felt to sell at the bottom to maximize their
profits. I am not good at handling that pressure myself, you have
to decide how much is bearable and unbearable for you.
Two, cutting losses short is a necessity, as market moves from
resistance to resistance, which could be far apart. It may retrace
your entry point, or it may not. You trade to make money, not to
pay someone for a ride at your expense. Most cup and handle
patterns last at least 7 weeks, that's how long it takes for the
losers to realize their losses. It could be longer. November lows
are March lows were 4 months apart, for a good reason.
Three, you should trade charts and not Elliot Wave stories. With
my due respect to Matt and Steve, they change their stories about
what current wave the market is in way too often to be reliable in
trading. Sometimes they are mistaken, not often but they do
mistakes. You should learn to look for yourself rather then depend
on their looking. Operating on their knowledge has a limited
applicability, unfortunately. You should develop your own, if you
are ever to succeed as a trader.
Four, I reckon that paying a small fee to have all the trading
tools necessary is cheaper than to pay a lot more in losses for not
having those tools. It should be obvious. If you found this site,
you are to learn trading for real or move on another site in
disgust that they don't tell you what to trade and when.
Five, for each trader there is a limit amount that he can
handle. Below that amount one makes gains, above it are steady
losses. That pattern is consistent, and it depends on your size as
a being (operating size). If you know your limit, you would be wise
not to exceed it most of the time.
Good luck with your trading! I hope you can reverse your
losses.
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Sell signals
SPX 5 min chart.png Maybe? that's a 5 min chart so ...
Posted by junkmaylbox on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 05:52 pm
Dodger, I did exactly what you suggested. I held a short from Friday, a gain then which turned into a loss. I closed that short pretty much after I had sensed the market was strong, with a small loss. I will review the yesterday's update again, thanks for the hint.
Roy so are you telling
Posted by dodgerdog on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 06:43 pm
Roy so are you telling me you reversed and went long today as I suggested? If you did you should of had an excellent day. I clearly stated that a break of the SPX trendline on the 30 minute chart would usher in some type of rally (had no idea how strong) which could be played initially as a trade to the long side. Finally, I said that you should only consider a short if you get a TRIGGER which never occurred.
Looking forward, I can see two scenarios in the short term. One a reversal down tomorrow (maybe after a some further upside probing) which would take the indices back down to test the broken channel or the market continues to rally up to higher targets (SPX 875) before pausing. I give more credence to the first scenario BUT I will not consider shorting until I get a TRIGGER to do so. In addition, I will immediately put a STOP in place at the time of entry.
No, Steve I have stayed
Posted by junkmaylbox on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 08:58 pm
No, Steve I have stayed in cash for the rest of the day. I burnt myself a bit by trying to game pullbacks, so I decided to wait out for a deeper pullback and then go long. I didn't want to go against the market, it's way too strong here.
Once the resistance at 805 was clearly taken out, the upside looked limited to me (810 to 825). Two factors confused me today: one, the 5,3 stochastic daily was on a sell signal, and Matt's gap handling strategy suggested selling the gap instead of buying it. On the other hand, the magnitude of the gap this morning suggested a huge up day, which it turned out to be prescient.
I only regret not taking profits on Friday, hoping to gain more of them at the completion of wave 2.
I am going to review your selling cues from last night's updates. I need to get a check list of buy and sell signals and follow it like a drill. Perhaps, I should get a stockcharts membership to be able to follow the $tick intraday charts or its equivalent. Matt also mentioned the volume indicator today, I need to figure out what it is.
Matt's intraday charts are really helpful when he posts them. So are the strong support and resistance zones from nightly updates. So are Matt's indicators on his charts. I learnt to follow MACD and volume versus average volume, and get various signals from mechanical systems on 5,6,15 and 30 minute charts. I have yet to make good use of CCI(75), RSI(14). I don't have TRIX(15,9) on my StrategyDest platform, only TRIX(10) whatever it means.
I am leaning towards swing trades now, so have a big picture for a day ahead (up and down) would be helpful. I don't know how feasible it is though, and whether or not you have time for such prognosis. Matt works his tail off, no doubt about that :(
Thanks for your good work!
Sell signals
Posted by panaspor on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 10:10 pm
junkmaylbox - I don't usually reply to any sites. However, having tried a lot of so called investor sites, I have found this one to be the best, that is until today. Factually, I have never made money on any other site, other than this one. That tells you how much investor experience I have and what most so called investor sites are. But today, I am sitting on a huge potential loss (no I have not sold my shorts, but hoping for a retracetment tomorrow) on the S&P. I just followed the 5,3,3, 60 day S&P 500 signal. However, junkmaylbox, I sat there ljust ike you. not believing what I saw. Admittedly, like Matt described, I turned into a deer in the headlights and could not even move. I was short since last week when the signal turned negative. No where did I see it cross again, to the positve side. I am trying to learn about from site about charting, but to watch I don't know how may time interval charts and to become a member of another site, Stockcharts, just to do it, why should I do that when I am already paying for this site. I don't have time to sit in front of a computer all day. That is why I subscribed to the site, as I don't have the time luxury to do that.
I do read most of the comments on the site and the most underated of all is the comment from Matt, "News, Trumps the Charts". This was big news and was designed to be. Saying that, I wonder what will happen to the markets when Guitner speaks again, I belief, this Thursday.
You MUST not simply depend
Posted by dodgerdog on 24th of Mar 2009 at 12:30 am
You MUST not simply depend upon the 5,3 stochastics indicator alone for entries and extis. It has been quite useful but is best used in conjunction with other indicators. Lastly, a STOP needs to be put in place PRIOR or SIMULTANEOUS with your order and then ADHERED to so that you do not realize large losses. Live to fight the next battle.
I agree with your sentiments
Posted by perthx on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 11:23 pm
I agree with your sentiments about having to join Stockcharts just to be able to benefit from matt/steve's charts....
Or would it really have killed either of them to re-post the chart from last night again and say "look we are busting above 780 SPX and we think that is a problem for shorts?"
yeah, that is probably asking for too much hand holding. but it may have kept you and others from the "deer in the headlights syndrome" x
I have to say this
Posted by dodgerdog on 24th of Mar 2009 at 12:48 am
I have to say this guys - if you're truly serious about trading you need real time intraday charts. If not Stockcharts then some other service will do but you really need to have this in place to trade effectively. The cost of our service is a joke and should be considerably higher compared to other services who offer 1/10 the material and service we do. If you don't have the capital to trade then you should NOT be risking it by trading. If these services or charts save you from one loss they pay for themselves over and over. Just think about that for a minute. Enough said.
dodger, then maybe you should let
Posted by dylan398 on 24th of Mar 2009 at 09:08 am
dodger,
then maybe you should let the people know when they sign up what kind of service they are going to recieve........many just want you to pick stocks for them and tell them when to buy and when to sell.....
2 FREE weeks .....
Posted by averageguy on 24th of Mar 2009 at 09:36 am
2 FREE weeks .....
BestFreeCharts offers--it should be no
Posted by algyros on 24th of Mar 2009 at 12:55 am
BestFreeCharts offers--it should be no surprise--free charts. Their fifteen minute charts are useful in conjunction with some of the swing trade mechanical systems devised by Matt and Steve.
algyros -wow nice free charts, thx
Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2009 at 01:14 am
algyros -wow nice free charts, thx for posting. I just took a look at them and they work very well
That's a great suggestion -
Posted by dodgerdog on 24th of Mar 2009 at 01:11 am
That's a great suggestion - just set them up like we do if you wish.
Panaspor , sorry for your
Posted by averageguy on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 10:54 pm
Panaspor , sorry for your paper loss . I`ve been at BPT almost 7mths. It took me 2 tuff mths. to realize it`s not that simple to change your trading style . After some troubled trades I realized that I had to go back to PAPER TRADING until I was very profitable on paper with my new style .I`m a bonehead so it took me about 3 mths only cash trading the most obvious trades that jumped out me before I went full time trading . Because of my patient I have hit my goals for 5 weeks! Today was a confusing day because I WAS OVERCONFIDENT and doing some things in live trading that I did`nt " simulate " first . I find improving is a reward in itself , so without misstakes I would`nt improve . Wellcome to the blog and best of luck to you . Ed
-
Posted by panaspor on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 11:15 pm
averageguy - You're comments are more than appreciated. I obviously have to change the way I trade and I think you're idea of paper trading for a while, might be the best way to go.
trading fundamentals
Posted by junkmaylbox on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 10:42 pm
panaspor, Several comments on what you wrote. One, I can feel you pain. Losses, even paper losses, weigh hard on one's psyche. What usually happens is that losses are realized at the very bottom, right before a reversal take place. Others like take their wins and they create pressure on you -- this pressure is very real and physically felt to sell at the bottom to maximize their profits. I am not good at handling that pressure myself, you have to decide how much is bearable and unbearable for you.
Two, cutting losses short is a necessity, as market moves from resistance to resistance, which could be far apart. It may retrace your entry point, or it may not. You trade to make money, not to pay someone for a ride at your expense. Most cup and handle patterns last at least 7 weeks, that's how long it takes for the losers to realize their losses. It could be longer. November lows are March lows were 4 months apart, for a good reason.
Three, you should trade charts and not Elliot Wave stories. With my due respect to Matt and Steve, they change their stories about what current wave the market is in way too often to be reliable in trading. Sometimes they are mistaken, not often but they do mistakes. You should learn to look for yourself rather then depend on their looking. Operating on their knowledge has a limited applicability, unfortunately. You should develop your own, if you are ever to succeed as a trader.
Four, I reckon that paying a small fee to have all the trading tools necessary is cheaper than to pay a lot more in losses for not having those tools. It should be obvious. If you found this site, you are to learn trading for real or move on another site in disgust that they don't tell you what to trade and when.
Five, for each trader there is a limit amount that he can handle. Below that amount one makes gains, above it are steady losses. That pattern is consistent, and it depends on your size as a being (operating size). If you know your limit, you would be wise not to exceed it most of the time.
Good luck with your trading! I hope you can reverse your losses.