Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 03:08 am
He is a very bright guy -- His book Conquer the crash is
brilliant -- but he may be a bit off with his timing, IMO.
Apparently he believes wave 5 will end any time soon and not some
100 odd points down on the $SPX.
Posted by cwa82675 on 25th of Feb 2009 at 01:45 pm
my wife found it at the dollar store back in 2006, I had her buy
all the copies and gave them to my friends and family
members. I bet not one of them read a page. now they
are crying to me about not being able to retire...
he and the EW guys have been bearish almost the entire time
since 1988. He has been a bear on gold from $270, except for a few
days fairly recently and even then he has been looking to short
gold on every rally. He has been wrong 98% of the time, except now
he can cheer himself because he says he called the top. Having
missed the bull market for 20 years now he can be right? His work
is next to worthless, except his observations on social trends are
good sometimes. That said, he is coincidentally going to look smart
because as he says we are near the low. Everyone knows that - but
as RP rightly points out the last leg down (if there is one still
coming) can be very profitable
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:32 am
PA, I heard that opinion on gold. The problem seems to be that
$gold does not follow technical analysis to the same extent as
everything else. To me the issue is manipulation of gold prices by
the big players more than anything else. I use EW analysis only as
a road map. A map is not the territory!
The problem with Prechter is that he can see vista but fails to
know small details that do not fit. The same as Bill Clinton, who
was a bit out of touch with reality.
TA has worked fine for me on gold. Got bullish in August 2000.
Called the 2008 top and recent low. FWIW, commodity futures
do trade differently - they need less time to prepare for a move.
But they get parabolic and crushed like everything else. Just need
to look at them differently from stocks. Which is why I recommend
newbies avoid futures and commodities until they prove their chops
consistently on stocks.
for the banks a couple of weeks ago. I agree with him, I
mean....how much more bad news is already baked in? If you
havent sold with Nationalization on everyones breath...you may not
sell ever.
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Robert Prechter
FWIW
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 03:08 am
He is a very bright guy -- His book Conquer the crash is brilliant -- but he may be a bit off with his timing, IMO. Apparently he believes wave 5 will end any time soon and not some 100 odd points down on the $SPX.
Yes excellent book! 'Conquer the
Posted by matt on 25th of Feb 2009 at 01:01 pm
Yes excellent book! 'Conquer the crash'
my wife found it at
Posted by cwa82675 on 25th of Feb 2009 at 01:45 pm
my wife found it at the dollar store back in 2006, I had her buy all the copies and gave them to my friends and family members. I bet not one of them read a page. now they are crying to me about not being able to retire...
DRYS
Posted by jnie on 25th of Feb 2009 at 01:12 pm
Matt,
Can you please take a look at DRYS. I have a feeling it is getting ready to pop.
Thanks Much
prechter
Posted by PA on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:00 am
he and the EW guys have been bearish almost the entire time since 1988. He has been a bear on gold from $270, except for a few days fairly recently and even then he has been looking to short gold on every rally. He has been wrong 98% of the time, except now he can cheer himself because he says he called the top. Having missed the bull market for 20 years now he can be right? His work is next to worthless, except his observations on social trends are good sometimes. That said, he is coincidentally going to look smart because as he says we are near the low. Everyone knows that - but as RP rightly points out the last leg down (if there is one still coming) can be very profitable
PA, I heard that opinion
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:32 am
PA, I heard that opinion on gold. The problem seems to be that $gold does not follow technical analysis to the same extent as everything else. To me the issue is manipulation of gold prices by the big players more than anything else. I use EW analysis only as a road map. A map is not the territory!
The problem with Prechter is that he can see vista but fails to know small details that do not fit. The same as Bill Clinton, who was a bit out of touch with reality.
Gold
Posted by PA on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:35 am
TA has worked fine for me on gold. Got bullish in August 2000. Called the 2008 top and recent low. FWIW, commodity futures do trade differently - they need less time to prepare for a move. But they get parabolic and crushed like everything else. Just need to look at them differently from stocks. Which is why I recommend newbies avoid futures and commodities until they prove their chops consistently on stocks.
Right on, PA!
Posted by brophy on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:13 am
Right on, PA!
he already said 5th wave was in
Posted by delane on 25th of Feb 2009 at 08:58 am
for the banks a couple of weeks ago. I agree with him, I mean....how much more bad news is already baked in? If you havent sold with Nationalization on everyones breath...you may not sell ever.