Just so you know, Elliot Wave's Richard Prechter was out this
morning
recomendingthat everyone cover their shorts now.
Prechter's said that the rebound in stocks could be
"sharp and scary for anyone who is short."
Posted by dodgerdog on 25th of Feb 2009 at 08:28 am
Yes he said that but certainly didn't rule out the market
falling further in the near term. He had been short since SPX
1500 and doesn't want to wait to cover since the number of bulls is
down to 3%. More importantly, he suggested NOW is the time to
begin preparing for the REAL issue ahead and that is capital
preservation which will NOT be found by keeping money in
banks. I plan to discuss this issue in more detail over the
weekend. Please stay tuned.
Posted by drorlando on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:28 am
Hmm, after redaing Steve, and the Speech last night was really
good...I will civer my SRS entry I bought before the close at 72,
take the $3 share and sit in cash. FWIW to everyone in
shorts.
coming soon cashless society. Where all transactions are
taxed, hookers, drug dealers, would all have to be accounted for.
Would get rid of alot of fraud. Qcom has wireless
banking now on their cell phones and its really caught on in Japan.
They call them there wireless wallets. Would save the
govt alot of money in distribution and cost of coinage too. I
think its a very good idea.
Right. Sorry Delane I disagree, because this is another removal
of our freedom. And BTW it gives THEM the ultimate hammer - if
everything you own is only a cyber entry in some bank's computer,
then it is easy to erase you if you cause them any trouble.
Trouble, as in disagreeing with their policies. Anyone for John
Galt action (Atlas Shrugged)? We may see it - keep us apprised,
everyone, if you start hearing publicly-made statements on radio
and TV about boycotting paying taxes or mortgages.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 03:08 am
He is a very bright guy -- His book Conquer the crash is
brilliant -- but he may be a bit off with his timing, IMO.
Apparently he believes wave 5 will end any time soon and not some
100 odd points down on the $SPX.
Posted by cwa82675 on 25th of Feb 2009 at 01:45 pm
my wife found it at the dollar store back in 2006, I had her buy
all the copies and gave them to my friends and family
members. I bet not one of them read a page. now they
are crying to me about not being able to retire...
he and the EW guys have been bearish almost the entire time
since 1988. He has been a bear on gold from $270, except for a few
days fairly recently and even then he has been looking to short
gold on every rally. He has been wrong 98% of the time, except now
he can cheer himself because he says he called the top. Having
missed the bull market for 20 years now he can be right? His work
is next to worthless, except his observations on social trends are
good sometimes. That said, he is coincidentally going to look smart
because as he says we are near the low. Everyone knows that - but
as RP rightly points out the last leg down (if there is one still
coming) can be very profitable
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:32 am
PA, I heard that opinion on gold. The problem seems to be that
$gold does not follow technical analysis to the same extent as
everything else. To me the issue is manipulation of gold prices by
the big players more than anything else. I use EW analysis only as
a road map. A map is not the territory!
The problem with Prechter is that he can see vista but fails to
know small details that do not fit. The same as Bill Clinton, who
was a bit out of touch with reality.
TA has worked fine for me on gold. Got bullish in August 2000.
Called the 2008 top and recent low. FWIW, commodity futures
do trade differently - they need less time to prepare for a move.
But they get parabolic and crushed like everything else. Just need
to look at them differently from stocks. Which is why I recommend
newbies avoid futures and commodities until they prove their chops
consistently on stocks.
for the banks a couple of weeks ago. I agree with him, I
mean....how much more bad news is already baked in? If you
havent sold with Nationalization on everyones breath...you may not
sell ever.
He shorted early last year, so he has a great profit, why not
cover, he doesn't have to get every last bit out. However on
the other hand, we are nearing the end of the downtrend anyway, or
could have ended it (but needs confirmation). If you shorted
at SPX 1500, then why not cover, we are closing in on Primary wave
A, then we shold have a Primary wave B up soon, which will be the
time to put shorts back on for long term swings.
Yes, Prechter is brilliant, I read Conquering the
crash...problem is, he was bearish duriing the entire bull
market....My prediction: a new bull market is coming!
But I won't tell you when. Will that make me brilliant when it
arrives?
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FWIW
Posted by gas6733 on 24th of Feb 2009 at 10:30 pm
Just so you know, Elliot Wave's Richard Prechter was out this morning recomendingthat everyone cover their shorts now. Prechter's said that the rebound in stocks could be "sharp and scary for anyone who is short."
Can anyone confirm this? or care?
Yes he said that but
Posted by dodgerdog on 25th of Feb 2009 at 08:28 am
Yes he said that but certainly didn't rule out the market falling further in the near term. He had been short since SPX 1500 and doesn't want to wait to cover since the number of bulls is down to 3%. More importantly, he suggested NOW is the time to begin preparing for the REAL issue ahead and that is capital preservation which will NOT be found by keeping money in banks. I plan to discuss this issue in more detail over the weekend. Please stay tuned.
Thanks Steve - look forward
Posted by srleblanc on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:03 am
Thanks Steve - look forward to that discussion!
SRS
Posted by drorlando on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:28 am
Hmm, after redaing Steve, and the Speech last night was really good...I will civer my SRS entry I bought before the close at 72, take the $3 share and sit in cash. FWIW to everyone in shorts.
Shorts
Posted by drorlando on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:35 am
SPX 15 minute looks strong to me, sold SRS at 72 for gain $3 overnight. I am in cash, got to go to surgery. Good luck everyone.
Doc - SRS was a
Posted by dodgerdog on 25th of Feb 2009 at 10:18 am
Doc - SRS was a nice setup last night near the close with the indexes overbought - nice trade
what I heard is
Posted by delane on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:08 am
coming soon cashless society. Where all transactions are taxed, hookers, drug dealers, would all have to be accounted for. Would get rid of alot of fraud. Qcom has wireless banking now on their cell phones and its really caught on in Japan. They call them there wireless wallets. Would save the govt alot of money in distribution and cost of coinage too. I think its a very good idea.
What I heard is
Posted by john9o9 on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:14 am
Yeah and most importantly what a way for them to keep track of everything you do with your money!!!!!! What did A Huxley write about?
Right. Sorry Delane I disagree,
Posted by PA on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:32 am
Right. Sorry Delane I disagree, because this is another removal of our freedom. And BTW it gives THEM the ultimate hammer - if everything you own is only a cyber entry in some bank's computer, then it is easy to erase you if you cause them any trouble. Trouble, as in disagreeing with their policies. Anyone for John Galt action (Atlas Shrugged)? We may see it - keep us apprised, everyone, if you start hearing publicly-made statements on radio and TV about boycotting paying taxes or mortgages.
Robert Prechter
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 03:08 am
He is a very bright guy -- His book Conquer the crash is brilliant -- but he may be a bit off with his timing, IMO. Apparently he believes wave 5 will end any time soon and not some 100 odd points down on the $SPX.
Yes excellent book! 'Conquer the
Posted by matt on 25th of Feb 2009 at 01:01 pm
Yes excellent book! 'Conquer the crash'
my wife found it at
Posted by cwa82675 on 25th of Feb 2009 at 01:45 pm
my wife found it at the dollar store back in 2006, I had her buy all the copies and gave them to my friends and family members. I bet not one of them read a page. now they are crying to me about not being able to retire...
DRYS
Posted by jnie on 25th of Feb 2009 at 01:12 pm
Matt,
Can you please take a look at DRYS. I have a feeling it is getting ready to pop.
Thanks Much
prechter
Posted by PA on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:00 am
he and the EW guys have been bearish almost the entire time since 1988. He has been a bear on gold from $270, except for a few days fairly recently and even then he has been looking to short gold on every rally. He has been wrong 98% of the time, except now he can cheer himself because he says he called the top. Having missed the bull market for 20 years now he can be right? His work is next to worthless, except his observations on social trends are good sometimes. That said, he is coincidentally going to look smart because as he says we are near the low. Everyone knows that - but as RP rightly points out the last leg down (if there is one still coming) can be very profitable
PA, I heard that opinion
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:32 am
PA, I heard that opinion on gold. The problem seems to be that $gold does not follow technical analysis to the same extent as everything else. To me the issue is manipulation of gold prices by the big players more than anything else. I use EW analysis only as a road map. A map is not the territory!
The problem with Prechter is that he can see vista but fails to know small details that do not fit. The same as Bill Clinton, who was a bit out of touch with reality.
Gold
Posted by PA on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:35 am
TA has worked fine for me on gold. Got bullish in August 2000. Called the 2008 top and recent low. FWIW, commodity futures do trade differently - they need less time to prepare for a move. But they get parabolic and crushed like everything else. Just need to look at them differently from stocks. Which is why I recommend newbies avoid futures and commodities until they prove their chops consistently on stocks.
Right on, PA!
Posted by brophy on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:13 am
Right on, PA!
he already said 5th wave was in
Posted by delane on 25th of Feb 2009 at 08:58 am
for the banks a couple of weeks ago. I agree with him, I mean....how much more bad news is already baked in? If you havent sold with Nationalization on everyones breath...you may not sell ever.
He shorted early last year,
Posted by matt on 24th of Feb 2009 at 11:56 pm
He shorted early last year, so he has a great profit, why not cover, he doesn't have to get every last bit out. However on the other hand, we are nearing the end of the downtrend anyway, or could have ended it (but needs confirmation). If you shorted at SPX 1500, then why not cover, we are closing in on Primary wave A, then we shold have a Primary wave B up soon, which will be the time to put shorts back on for long term swings.
Prechter
Posted by imatradingfool on 24th of Feb 2009 at 10:36 pm
It is on Bloomberg
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aa.dfYJatKDs
Yes, Prechter is brilliant, I
Posted by brophy on 25th of Feb 2009 at 08:57 am
Yes, Prechter is brilliant, I read Conquering the crash...problem is, he was bearish duriing the entire bull market....My prediction: a new bull market is coming!
But I won't tell you when. Will that make me brilliant when it arrives?