The first chart is a 100 year chart of the Dow Jones with RSI 13
length. RARELY does the 13 or 14 length RSI get oversold on a
monthly chart of the SPX or Dow Jones - only occurred 7 times in
100 years on the Dow Jones for example - so it's an extremely
rare event. In the future whenever you see the 13 or 14 RSI get
oversold on a monthly chart of the Dow Jones or SPX, take strong
notice! Who knows when that will occur again, the last time
was 2008 so it's been 16 years,
I actually use that as one of the rules in the old paint dry
system, the trigger wasn't going long when the RSI 14 got oversold,
but rather that was 1/2 the signal, while the trigger was a strong
reversal candle that took back more than 50% of the previous
candle.
The old paint dry also used Bollinger Bands, and the BPT MA
Deluxe with a smoothing filter
honestly looking at these charts of the SPX going back to 1960
it was very good and still is. But being that it's a monthly
system, it was not able to adapt quicky enough to avoid the 2020
March Covid crash - so it just held through that. Otherwise it
handled the 1970's bear market just fine, as well as the trending
80's and 90's, and the tech bubble crash and 2008 crash just
fine
I mean there's only 17 trades since 1960, all 100%, but again
some of these trades hold for 7 and 8 years, while most are at
least 2 or 3, to me I've always liked the name 'paint dry' but it
really is like watching paint dry - unless you don't trade the
markets at all, I don't see how it would be useful to anyone here.
It's still better than just buying and holding as it gives
some protection for major bear markets (except when you have fast
hard corrections that are over within a month) but keeps you out of
major bear markets that last 1 and 2 years, that said those are
rare and for me this is a cool system like chart but not really
practical for folks here - maybe for some of your friends who will
never trade, but want something that rarely gives a signal
for most of them, the weekly KISS would probably be fine -
doesn't hold as long as the Paint Dry monthly but can still avoid
fast crashes like the Covid crash
I always thought the concept of using 50% kiss weekly
spy/qqq and daily spy/qqq would be a nice combo for a 401k. Would
it be possible to see the weekly kiss stats on spy & qqq when
possible. Curious if the weekly has beaten buy &
hold.
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Monthly RSI on Dow/SPX, and old paint dry system
Posted by matt on 1st of Sep 2024 at 05:12 pm
The first chart is a 100 year chart of the Dow Jones with RSI 13 length. RARELY does the 13 or 14 length RSI get oversold on a monthly chart of the SPX or Dow Jones - only occurred 7 times in 100 years on the Dow Jones for example - so it's an extremely rare event. In the future whenever you see the 13 or 14 RSI get oversold on a monthly chart of the Dow Jones or SPX, take strong notice! Who knows when that will occur again, the last time was 2008 so it's been 16 years,
I actually use that as one of the rules in the old paint dry system, the trigger wasn't going long when the RSI 14 got oversold, but rather that was 1/2 the signal, while the trigger was a strong reversal candle that took back more than 50% of the previous candle.
The old paint dry also used Bollinger Bands, and the BPT MA Deluxe with a smoothing filter
honestly looking at these charts of the SPX going back to 1960 it was very good and still is. But being that it's a monthly system, it was not able to adapt quicky enough to avoid the 2020 March Covid crash - so it just held through that. Otherwise it handled the 1970's bear market just fine, as well as the trending 80's and 90's, and the tech bubble crash and 2008 crash just fine
It would be interesting to
Posted by oreo on 2nd of Sep 2024 at 10:22 am
It would be interesting to see the stats on this monthly system and also the daily kiss charts like you guys have posted on the high performance.
Would you be able to post those type of stats on these systems?
I mean there's only 17
Posted by matt on 2nd of Sep 2024 at 03:09 pm
I mean there's only 17 trades since 1960, all 100%, but again some of these trades hold for 7 and 8 years, while most are at least 2 or 3, to me I've always liked the name 'paint dry' but it really is like watching paint dry - unless you don't trade the markets at all, I don't see how it would be useful to anyone here. It's still better than just buying and holding as it gives some protection for major bear markets (except when you have fast hard corrections that are over within a month) but keeps you out of major bear markets that last 1 and 2 years, that said those are rare and for me this is a cool system like chart but not really practical for folks here - maybe for some of your friends who will never trade, but want something that rarely gives a signal
Yeah, was thinking of this
Posted by oreo on 2nd of Sep 2024 at 11:50 pm
Yeah, was thinking of this for some family members who could care less about day to day but don't want to get caught in a big downdraft.
The daily KISS charts would be great to have stats for though, thanks!
for most of them, the
Posted by matt on 2nd of Sep 2024 at 11:51 pm
for most of them, the weekly KISS would probably be fine - doesn't hold as long as the Paint Dry monthly but can still avoid fast crashes like the Covid crash
I always thought the concept
Posted by jonesy85 on 3rd of Sep 2024 at 05:54 am
I always thought the concept of using 50% kiss weekly spy/qqq and daily spy/qqq would be a nice combo for a 401k. Would it be possible to see the weekly kiss stats on spy & qqq when possible. Curious if the weekly has beaten buy & hold.