I updated the sell in May and go away stats spreadsheet, the
stats always amaze me for their simplicity and how much of a
difference it makes
Basically, the markets have made the vast majority of their
gains in one 6 month time frame of the year (typically mid Oct/Nov
- to end of April)
From 1952 - present. The sell in May and go away, without the
MACD filter you buy on November 1st, and sell on April 30th the
next year.
using the standard MACD settings you look for an earlier buy
starting from Oct 16th, instead of waiting for Nov 1st, if the MACD
crosses above its signal line you take the long.
for exits you start looking for a MACD cross from April 21st
onward.
Statistics:
- Best 6 months: starting with $10,000, this turned into
$2.85 million
- Worst 6 months : starting with $10,000 this turned into $7254!
Basically after 75 years you lost $2800! While in the other 6
months your $10K turned into $2.8M!
I still have to say, those sell in May stats always blow me away
how basically all the money in the market has been made in one 6
month time frame of the year
$10,000 starting in 1950 turned into 2.8M in the good 6 months
of the year, and instead if you had invested $10,000 in the other 6
months of the year, your actually lost money, your $10,000 after 75
years turned into $7000! That's just insane to me
it's not really a strategy I could follow personally myself, to
me it's more fascinating just form a math/statistics standpoint.
But someone who doesn't look at the market at all and is pure buy
and hold, could follow it.
Also - what I don't show and will try to put together is that
one strategy would be to be invested in those good 6 months of the
year, and in the other 6 months invest that money in Tbills or
Money Market and make interest - I did that calculation once in the
past and instead of your $10K turning into 2.8M, with compound
interest it would be more like 7.5 million!
regarding the custom Sell in May and Go away statistics with the
MACD buy and sell filter -here's the Tradestation statistics on
that strategy, not bad PF of 6.3.
I'll do a video on this sometime, I need to add the historical
interest rate on Tbills for the other 6 months when one would be in
cash earning interest
anyway the sell in may and go away is not a strategy that fits
my personality and style, I simply find it fascinating from a
mathematical standpoint how the majority of the market gains have
been made in those 6 months of the year, while the other 6 months
lost money over 75 years
Updated Sell in May and go away statistics - with the MACD buy/sell filter
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2024 at 11:47 pm
I updated the sell in May and go away stats spreadsheet, the stats always amaze me for their simplicity and how much of a difference it makes
Basically, the markets have made the vast majority of their gains in one 6 month time frame of the year (typically mid Oct/Nov - to end of April)
From 1952 - present. The sell in May and go away, without the MACD filter you buy on November 1st, and sell on April 30th the next year.
using the standard MACD settings you look for an earlier buy starting from Oct 16th, instead of waiting for Nov 1st, if the MACD crosses above its signal line you take the long.
for exits you start looking for a MACD cross from April 21st onward.
Statistics:
- Best 6 months: starting with $10,000, this turned into $2.85 million
- Worst 6 months : starting with $10,000 this turned into $7254! Basically after 75 years you lost $2800! While in the other 6 months your $10K turned into $2.8M!
I still have to say,
Posted by matt on 6th of May 2024 at 11:30 am
I still have to say, those sell in May stats always blow me away how basically all the money in the market has been made in one 6 month time frame of the year
$10,000 starting in 1950 turned into 2.8M in the good 6 months of the year, and instead if you had invested $10,000 in the other 6 months of the year, your actually lost money, your $10,000 after 75 years turned into $7000! That's just insane to me
it's not really a strategy I could follow personally myself, to me it's more fascinating just form a math/statistics standpoint. But someone who doesn't look at the market at all and is pure buy and hold, could follow it.
Also - what I don't show and will try to put together is that one strategy would be to be invested in those good 6 months of the year, and in the other 6 months invest that money in Tbills or Money Market and make interest - I did that calculation once in the past and instead of your $10K turning into 2.8M, with compound interest it would be more like 7.5 million!
regarding the custom Sell in
Posted by matt on 6th of May 2024 at 04:24 pm
regarding the custom Sell in May and Go away statistics with the MACD buy and sell filter -here's the Tradestation statistics on that strategy, not bad PF of 6.3.
I'll do a video on this sometime, I need to add the historical interest rate on Tbills for the other 6 months when one would be in cash earning interest
anyway the sell in may and go away is not a strategy that fits my personality and style, I simply find it fascinating from a mathematical standpoint how the majority of the market gains have been made in those 6 months of the year, while the other 6 months lost money over 75 years
Have to say, that blew
Posted by don3247 on 6th of May 2024 at 09:48 am
Have to say, that blew me away this morning!
Sell in May and go
Posted by srusso1 on 6th of May 2024 at 08:30 am
Sell in May and go away Interesting to see stats. How is it on SPY or IWM?