Are we are at the stage now where the market may be more afraid
of an immediate cut (Fed turning Dovish). Just a thought.
We will continue to trade what's in front of us.
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 03:00 pm
The way you know the Fed and treasury eased is by looking at the
dollar action on the announcements. That is the largest, most
liquid market in the world and tells the story clearly. Everything
else is likely propaganda, bias or just noise.
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 03:09 pm
This post yesterday was essentially spot on. Janet's role was
more hidden but still very powerful.
I think it's hard to trade these in the moment. I have been
trading non stop to setup for it and had everything set about an
hour before the print (except I added Gold when shadow easing was
confirmed). Market could still go down because the economy is
weaker than they can say out loud, but I CRUSHED it today.
Now reducing positions.
If I were a conspiracy theorist I might postulate that Powel
will strike a hawkish tone because the "Deep State" wants to bring
down market valuations to make them more attractive for a run-up
into the election. I am not a conspiracy theorist, however, I'm
favoring that type of scenario playing out so looking for more
downside here. I could be completely wrong and will follow your
mantra to "trade what's in front of us."
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 01:28 pm
I think Janet might give JPOW some leash on the honesty front
pretty soon. Right now he is completely censored and hasn't said a
peep about either fiscal policy or illegal immigration effects (he
is self censoring but I'm sure there is a ton of pressure in an
election year). Anyway, I think Janet might green light some
honesty just to get closer to a rate cut. Higher rates are
not helping curb inflation and JPOW can't control it at this
point....we're in fiscal dominance phase. He can tiptoe
around that point to some middle ground if Janet allows.
The hard part about changing courses is that Congress and the
Admin are very happy being able to point fingers at the Fed when
people complain about inflation. Just a couple of weeks ago, the
deputy Treasury sec said "Inflation is completely under the Fed's
purvue, but I think they are doing a good job overall." He
was VERY quick to make sure the CNBC audience was pointing the
finger at the Fed and not the fiscal side.
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Are we are at the
Posted by steve on 1st of May 2024 at 12:48 pm
Are we are at the stage now where the market may be more afraid of an immediate cut (Fed turning Dovish). Just a thought. We will continue to trade what's in front of us.
Yes FED came out Hawkish
Posted by steve on 1st of May 2024 at 02:58 pm
Yes FED came out Hawkish and market ripped (LOL)
The way you know the
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 03:00 pm
The way you know the Fed and treasury eased is by looking at the dollar action on the announcements. That is the largest, most liquid market in the world and tells the story clearly. Everything else is likely propaganda, bias or just noise.
This post yesterday was essentially
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 03:09 pm
This post yesterday was essentially spot on. Janet's role was more hidden but still very powerful.
I think it's hard to trade these in the moment. I have been trading non stop to setup for it and had everything set about an hour before the print (except I added Gold when shadow easing was confirmed). Market could still go down because the economy is weaker than they can say out loud, but I CRUSHED it today. Now reducing positions.
If I were a conspiracy
Posted by Ed_M on 1st of May 2024 at 01:31 pm
If I were a conspiracy theorist I might postulate that Powel will strike a hawkish tone because the "Deep State" wants to bring down market valuations to make them more attractive for a run-up into the election. I am not a conspiracy theorist, however, I'm favoring that type of scenario playing out so looking for more downside here. I could be completely wrong and will follow your mantra to "trade what's in front of us."
Go PFE bin in it
Posted by srusso1 on 1st of May 2024 at 01:35 pm
Go PFE bin in it on system long.
I actually read this in
Posted by arun on 1st of May 2024 at 12:52 pm
I actually read this in few places that Yen weakness is worrying fed and they may signal dovish
Maybe .... rumour has it
Posted by mla127 on 1st of May 2024 at 01:04 pm
Maybe .... rumour has it Jay's most played song on his Spotify is this hits from the 80's ... can't be a coincidence ...
I think Janet might give
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of May 2024 at 01:28 pm
I think Janet might give JPOW some leash on the honesty front pretty soon. Right now he is completely censored and hasn't said a peep about either fiscal policy or illegal immigration effects (he is self censoring but I'm sure there is a ton of pressure in an election year). Anyway, I think Janet might green light some honesty just to get closer to a rate cut. Higher rates are not helping curb inflation and JPOW can't control it at this point....we're in fiscal dominance phase. He can tiptoe around that point to some middle ground if Janet allows.
The hard part about changing courses is that Congress and the Admin are very happy being able to point fingers at the Fed when people complain about inflation. Just a couple of weeks ago, the deputy Treasury sec said "Inflation is completely under the Fed's purvue, but I think they are doing a good job overall." He was VERY quick to make sure the CNBC audience was pointing the finger at the Fed and not the fiscal side.