Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 02:32 pm
VNQ wins for tightest weekly STS stop at the time of posting
(.01%). Good luck getting the price listed, but still good.
My base case is that RE still has a big leg down when rates
fall and volume increases, but a rally to suck in bulls in the
meantime wouldn't shock me. I read yesterday that RE is down 19%
nationally since 2022. And that's on a nominal basis. I asked
the guy to provide figures in real terms, but he responded by
following me...which didn't answer the question (has to be around
35% or 40% down from highs if 22% is nominal?).
Anyway, people are already looking for a RE market low and I
think it might drive a profitable trap (profitable both
directions...into the trap and once it's triggered)
*Any of the non cash buyers since the 2022 top are likely
trapped. Not like stock market buyers get trapped...I mean trapped
trapped. You can't refi an underwater property without adding more
capital to rightsize the loan. Rates could go down to 2% but they
will be trapped unless prices make new highs.
Sold my home in Christchurch NZ in January, market 15-20% lower
than in 2022. Trying to buy a property in Perth South (Western
Australia). Even though the mortgage rates are at+_6%pa after
languishing at 2% in 2022, the market has moved up by 20-25% in the
past year. This has largely be driven by increased immigration and
shortage of stock.
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VNQ wins for tightest weekly
Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Mar 2024 at 02:32 pm
VNQ wins for tightest weekly STS stop at the time of posting (.01%). Good luck getting the price listed, but still good.
My base case is that RE still has a big leg down when rates fall and volume increases, but a rally to suck in bulls in the meantime wouldn't shock me. I read yesterday that RE is down 19% nationally since 2022. And that's on a nominal basis. I asked the guy to provide figures in real terms, but he responded by following me...which didn't answer the question (has to be around 35% or 40% down from highs if 22% is nominal?).
Anyway, people are already looking for a RE market low and I think it might drive a profitable trap (profitable both directions...into the trap and once it's triggered)
*Any of the non cash buyers since the 2022 top are likely trapped. Not like stock market buyers get trapped...I mean trapped trapped. You can't refi an underwater property without adding more capital to rightsize the loan. Rates could go down to 2% but they will be trapped unless prices make new highs.
Sold my home in Christchurch
Posted by mundy on 28th of Mar 2024 at 06:17 am
Sold my home in Christchurch NZ in January, market 15-20% lower than in 2022. Trying to buy a property in Perth South (Western Australia). Even though the mortgage rates are at+_6%pa after languishing at 2% in 2022, the market has moved up by 20-25% in the past year. This has largely be driven by increased immigration and shortage of stock.