I've seen people post HSY as a play on lower cocoa prices for probably months now. But market doesn't care that prices are crazy. 

Hershey (HSY)– To no one’s surprise, the price of cocoa’s recent ascent is obviously a big area of concern for shares of Hershey. But what is driving the increase? As RBC Capital analyst Nik Modi explains, in the near-term, production in West Africa has been plagued by several consecutive years of weather-related challenges, reducing crop yields and production. This year, several months of wet weather have disrupted production and also led to the spread of black pod disease and swollen shoot virus (excess rain can knock flowers off before they bud, and fosters infections). Furthermore, local trade dynamics between farmers, dealers, processors, and local governments have put supply at additional risk. Typically, forward contracts are arranged roughly a year in advance, but the uncertain supply outlook is limiting forward contracts this year. Hershey's management understands the aforementioned dynamics in the cocoa market and was hedged below the market coming into 2024. It was reiterated that they have good visibility into cocoa costs this year. However, during their store tours, management did also acknowledge that cocoa will be a headwind in 2025, but where prices actually go is a wait and see based on the productivity of the next cocoa crop and outcome of the EU deforestation law. Lastly, while government reports from the Ivory Coast show production down ~30% Y/Y, RBC believes that the reported number could be lower (i.e. not as bad)as there is likely a portion of the supply that gets smuggled out to other countries where farmers do not have price locks and can take advantage of the elevated market prices.