Posted by mastermind on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 05:08 pm
A rising market doesn't *have* to be indicative of a bubble,
right? Sometimes there are transformative events that shift the
landscape. I know that valuation is your big concern, but has
current valuation always indicated that the market was due to
collapse?
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 05:39 pm
This is not simply a "rising market" - here's something I
researched and posted on X yesterday (please double check my
results...I would be interested if I missed a comparable period).
I tried to find another time in history where SPX has gone 20
weeks without a touch of the 9 week EMA. I didn't spot any. I found
a 16 week run in 2007, 18 in 1995, 11 in 1987 and 13 in 1971. It
seems like we're currently breaking records - aka, experiencing
asset hyperinflation.
If this isn't a bubble, then there has never been a
bubble...mathematically speaking, based on simply finding a period
that has ever compared to this one.
Bubbles can last a LONG time. I'm long as I can be because
I'm scared to death that Yellen's inflation is going to eat me
alive. Bubbles pop when someone unplugs the compressor. When
the spending slows, the market will slow.
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 05:34 pm
It's all Gov spending. Back it out of last year's GDP for
yourself to check my rhetoric....the data is public. The checks
have stopped going out to households for the most part, but they
have still increased overall spending massively, not decreased
since pandemic. Trying to say it's AI driven or because we're such
a great country is completely missing the reality of the never
before amounts of capital and liquidity dumped into the system.
Watch this questioning of Yellen by Congress and make a point
to note the increased levels of spending. It's insanity...and it is
not likely to continue...which means there will be a hangover
simply due to less stimulus.
We are the neighbor with the shiny new toys who can barely
sleep because he knows the credit card bill is going to be
stifling. It looks great on the outside, but it is debt
financed (is that even a question?). It's so obvious that I'm not
sure why the constant pushback and gaslighting from every corner. I
guess it's political and people who bought into the pandemic and
the response don't want to also see admit that it is still acting
on the economy and not sustainable. Now that it dominates the
economy, a decrease in deficit spending will hit earnings
hard...and I think we all know this pace of deficit spending is
unsustainable. At this point, I think they're just going to go full
blast to buy the election, if they can. After that, the brakes have
to be applied.
This seems quite contradictory. I understand inflation driving
asset prices currently. But how is this sustainable for any kind of
asset valuation ? Makes me wonder how we protect ourselves if /
when this falls apart. Going to cash in stock market is one thing.
But what about real estate type assets ? If we sell everything and
sit on cash , the value of cash will go down too. Seems very
complicated.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
A rising market doesn't *have*
My TV rolls to a recording of the Bloomberg open ...
Posted by mastermind on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 05:08 pm
A rising market doesn't *have* to be indicative of a bubble, right? Sometimes there are transformative events that shift the landscape. I know that valuation is your big concern, but has current valuation always indicated that the market was due to collapse?
This is not simply a
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 05:39 pm
This is not simply a "rising market" - here's something I researched and posted on X yesterday (please double check my results...I would be interested if I missed a comparable period).
I tried to find another time in history where SPX has gone 20 weeks without a touch of the 9 week EMA. I didn't spot any. I found a 16 week run in 2007, 18 in 1995, 11 in 1987 and 13 in 1971. It seems like we're currently breaking records - aka, experiencing asset hyperinflation.
If this isn't a bubble, then there has never been a bubble...mathematically speaking, based on simply finding a period that has ever compared to this one.
Bubbles can last a LONG time. I'm long as I can be because I'm scared to death that Yellen's inflation is going to eat me alive. Bubbles pop when someone unplugs the compressor. When the spending slows, the market will slow.
It's all Gov spending. Back
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 05:34 pm
It's all Gov spending. Back it out of last year's GDP for yourself to check my rhetoric....the data is public. The checks have stopped going out to households for the most part, but they have still increased overall spending massively, not decreased since pandemic. Trying to say it's AI driven or because we're such a great country is completely missing the reality of the never before amounts of capital and liquidity dumped into the system.
Watch this questioning of Yellen by Congress and make a point to note the increased levels of spending. It's insanity...and it is not likely to continue...which means there will be a hangover simply due to less stimulus.
We are the neighbor with the shiny new toys who can barely sleep because he knows the credit card bill is going to be stifling. It looks great on the outside, but it is debt financed (is that even a question?). It's so obvious that I'm not sure why the constant pushback and gaslighting from every corner. I guess it's political and people who bought into the pandemic and the response don't want to also see admit that it is still acting on the economy and not sustainable. Now that it dominates the economy, a decrease in deficit spending will hit earnings hard...and I think we all know this pace of deficit spending is unsustainable. At this point, I think they're just going to go full blast to buy the election, if they can. After that, the brakes have to be applied.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x21GJbBe6yU
This seems quite contradictory. I
Posted by arun on 23rd of Mar 2024 at 09:16 am
This seems quite contradictory. I understand inflation driving asset prices currently. But how is this sustainable for any kind of asset valuation ? Makes me wonder how we protect ourselves if / when this falls apart. Going to cash in stock market is one thing. But what about real estate type assets ? If we sell everything and sit on cash , the value of cash will go down too. Seems very complicated.