ugh....sometimes but it doesn't stay like that for as long of a
period of time like it does for uptrending markets.
again remember that downtrending markets do not behave as the
inverse of an uptrending market, meaning you can't just place a
mirror in front on an uptrending market and see how the market
would behave in downtrending market.
topping is a process and can go on and on and on at times,
longer than you think, as we've seen with this market.
downtrending markets tend to be more violent and volatile, but
washout and are done/over much more quickly, vs just trending down
and down for long periods of time. The emotion of fear manifests
itself differently than greed and complacency in an uptrending
market. Remember that's why the default KISS systems that are
long only doesn't work well on inverse ETF's and stocks because
it's generally best instead of trailing stop to just exit after a
strong move - I mentioned a couple weeks ago that if I added a
profit target to the KISS systems then they work better for
shorts.
Mathematically, if you have a certain long-only strategy (e.g.
KISS) that beats buy-and-hold on a certain instrument over a
specified period (say X% vs. Y% for a certain year), then by going
short the instrument (not long the inverse ETF) instead of going to
cash, you increase your return to 2X-Y%. Works very nicely for QQQ
for example. Should work even better with the high-performance
version, without even trying to optimize the short entry (as long
as they consistently trash buy-and-hold).
ugh....sometimes but it doesn't stay
60 Stochastic embedded over 80% system
Posted by matt on 18th of Mar 2024 at 07:32 pm
ugh....sometimes but it doesn't stay like that for as long of a period of time like it does for uptrending markets.
again remember that downtrending markets do not behave as the inverse of an uptrending market, meaning you can't just place a mirror in front on an uptrending market and see how the market would behave in downtrending market.
topping is a process and can go on and on and on at times, longer than you think, as we've seen with this market.
downtrending markets tend to be more violent and volatile, but washout and are done/over much more quickly, vs just trending down and down for long periods of time. The emotion of fear manifests itself differently than greed and complacency in an uptrending market. Remember that's why the default KISS systems that are long only doesn't work well on inverse ETF's and stocks because it's generally best instead of trailing stop to just exit after a strong move - I mentioned a couple weeks ago that if I added a profit target to the KISS systems then they work better for shorts.
(lurker observation here ..) Mathematically, if
Posted by momo11 on 19th of Mar 2024 at 05:49 am
(lurker observation here ..)
Mathematically, if you have a certain long-only strategy (e.g. KISS) that beats buy-and-hold on a certain instrument over a specified period (say X% vs. Y% for a certain year), then by going short the instrument (not long the inverse ETF) instead of going to cash, you increase your return to 2X-Y%. Works very nicely for QQQ for example. Should work even better with the high-performance version, without even trying to optimize the short entry (as long as they consistently trash buy-and-hold).
Thanks Matt for that explanation
Posted by rmoore100 on 18th of Mar 2024 at 08:44 pm
Thanks Matt for that explanation and for sharing that 60 stoch chart with us. I've sure got it saved for continued later viewing. Thanks Again !!!!