Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Mar 2024 at 02:47 pm
If your trading plan requires a 2 to 1 setup, a 6% stop requires
a 12% gain. That's pretty hard to come by so I wait for stops
that can be set in the 2 - 3% range...which is also hard to come by
if you sort the STS tables by the distance to the STS.
DigiNomad - I wanted to respond to your comment from earlier
If your trading plan
requires a 2 to 1 setup, a 6% stop requires a 12% gain.
That's pretty hard to come by so I wait for stops that can be
set in the 2 - 3% range...which is also hard to come by if you sort
the STS tables by the distance to the STS.
I understand your point, but first off as I showed earlier, a
lot of the initial stops are not that wide, 3% or 5%. yes there's
some with 6% etc depending on what long condition triggered the
entry (washout and ABC's are very tight stops, while ATR confirm
breaks are wider)
However, your trade philosophy of targeting 2:1 or 3:1 trades
where you are trying to target 2X your risk or 3X your risk is
something very common and what a lot of traders do and something I
employ as well.
That said, the system is not trying to exit after a 2:1 or 3:1
target has been achieved. The system holds trades for as long as
possible and tries to stay in uptrends as long as possible, it
doesn't exit on an arbitrary target. The system may exit after a
2:1 move however it captures a lot of trades where it manages to
get 10:1 or 20:1 or more, way beyond a 2:1 or 3:1. It's not
looking at 2:1 or 3:1, it's simply trying to stay in the trend as
long as it lasts, which could be short, or go on for weeks and
months.
heck just looking at the QQQ chart I posted earlier, the entry
in late Oct where the stop was only 2.4% away from the long entry,
if one had taken a 2:1 or 3:1 target, they would have been out of
the trade within a week and missed 90% of the rally.
The trade with the initial risk from the stop is now at a 13 to
1 target to risk ratio. When the system went long QQQ's in Oct, the
stop was about 8 points from entry, and the trade is up 102 points
now 102 /8 = 12.75, that's way beyond a 2:1 or 3:1 and that's
pretty common with a lot of the system trades when it catches
runners. I see trades that are up 20:1 and 30:1
looking at the system as 2:1 and 3:1 doesn't really make sense
here
could we make a version of the system again that takes profits
like that? Yes and we may do something like that in the future, as
I've stated, these systems are only going to get better and better
with new tools and systems added over time
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Mar 2024 at 10:14 am
Thanks for this, Matt. The systems are great and there are lots
of ways to implement them in a personal trading system. I trade
full time these days so the wider stops are less useful than they
used to be (I have time to use tight stops and play for a reset
when they get hit), but I find the sortable spreadsheet aspect of
the systems page to be extremely useful. I regularly sort by
distance to STS and the demark count to find targets that might be
starting at a move or potentially ending one (I would rather not
buy something at a Demark 7, etc).
probably, but that's pretty low priority to me, something to do
later on. One thing I was thinking about adding to the table was
the earnings date and to automatically have the website to email
you if one of your favorites have an earnings date coming up, to me
that's pretty useful and a great reminder to people to alert then
of earnings so that they can make a determination on if they are
going to hold into earnings or not. But like anything, when we
looked into getting that data, it's would cost us $200 a month for
the data
If your trading plan requires
I'm struggling to find the right entry point for KISS ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Mar 2024 at 02:47 pm
If your trading plan requires a 2 to 1 setup, a 6% stop requires a 12% gain. That's pretty hard to come by so I wait for stops that can be set in the 2 - 3% range...which is also hard to come by if you sort the STS tables by the distance to the STS.
DigiNomad - I wanted to
Posted by matt on 12th of Mar 2024 at 08:21 pm
DigiNomad - I wanted to respond to your comment from earlier
If your trading plan requires a 2 to 1 setup, a 6% stop requires a 12% gain. That's pretty hard to come by so I wait for stops that can be set in the 2 - 3% range...which is also hard to come by if you sort the STS tables by the distance to the STS.
I understand your point, but first off as I showed earlier, a lot of the initial stops are not that wide, 3% or 5%. yes there's some with 6% etc depending on what long condition triggered the entry (washout and ABC's are very tight stops, while ATR confirm breaks are wider)
However, your trade philosophy of targeting 2:1 or 3:1 trades where you are trying to target 2X your risk or 3X your risk is something very common and what a lot of traders do and something I employ as well.
That said, the system is not trying to exit after a 2:1 or 3:1 target has been achieved. The system holds trades for as long as possible and tries to stay in uptrends as long as possible, it doesn't exit on an arbitrary target. The system may exit after a 2:1 move however it captures a lot of trades where it manages to get 10:1 or 20:1 or more, way beyond a 2:1 or 3:1. It's not looking at 2:1 or 3:1, it's simply trying to stay in the trend as long as it lasts, which could be short, or go on for weeks and months.
heck just looking at the QQQ chart I posted earlier, the entry in late Oct where the stop was only 2.4% away from the long entry, if one had taken a 2:1 or 3:1 target, they would have been out of the trade within a week and missed 90% of the rally.
The trade with the initial risk from the stop is now at a 13 to 1 target to risk ratio. When the system went long QQQ's in Oct, the stop was about 8 points from entry, and the trade is up 102 points now 102 /8 = 12.75, that's way beyond a 2:1 or 3:1 and that's pretty common with a lot of the system trades when it catches runners. I see trades that are up 20:1 and 30:1
looking at the system as 2:1 and 3:1 doesn't really make sense here
could we make a version of the system again that takes profits like that? Yes and we may do something like that in the future, as I've stated, these systems are only going to get better and better with new tools and systems added over time
Thanks for this, Matt. The
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Mar 2024 at 10:14 am
Thanks for this, Matt. The systems are great and there are lots of ways to implement them in a personal trading system. I trade full time these days so the wider stops are less useful than they used to be (I have time to use tight stops and play for a reset when they get hit), but I find the sortable spreadsheet aspect of the systems page to be extremely useful. I regularly sort by distance to STS and the demark count to find targets that might be starting at a move or potentially ending one (I would rather not buy something at a Demark 7, etc).
Would it be possible to
Posted by bulf6285 on 13th of Mar 2024 at 09:14 am
Would it be possible to add the long condition that triggered the trade to the tables?
probably, but that's pretty low
Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2024 at 09:26 am
probably, but that's pretty low priority to me, something to do later on. One thing I was thinking about adding to the table was the earnings date and to automatically have the website to email you if one of your favorites have an earnings date coming up, to me that's pretty useful and a great reminder to people to alert then of earnings so that they can make a determination on if they are going to hold into earnings or not. But like anything, when we looked into getting that data, it's would cost us $200 a month for the data
earnings date and to automatically
Posted by srusso1 on 13th of Mar 2024 at 09:32 am
earnings date and to automatically have the website to email you if one of your favorites have an earnings date coming up That would be awesome.
again then enter your trades
Posted by matt on 12th of Mar 2024 at 02:53 pm
again then enter your trades on your own, and later on after the stock has been uptrending well, use the system stops then
I also see MDLZ triggered yesterday, was only 2.35% away from the stop, EXPE was 4%