Posted by DigiNomad on 7th of Mar 2024 at 05:44 pm
HYG - interesting spot for the systems to go long. Is that
correct? Seems like a high flag consolidation, which suggests it
will likely break higher, but I can't find a timeframe where it
triggered yet. Can you give us any insight into the factors
that caused the trigger today?
Posted by jhbernstein on 8th of Mar 2024 at 07:21 am
High Yield is ~95% of my business so I watch it very closely.
When it trends, it trends very well (11/1/23 - 12/31/23) but when
it doesn't, it's better to fade the range (all of 2024). One
important factor to look at is option adjusted spreads. The best HY
trend following trades happen as OAS compresses which shouldn't
happen if the economy weakens. (and I think your take on the
economy is correct) Take a look at this chart of HY OAS. I
see very little room for spreads to compress and a lot of room for
them to blow out.
on HYG? honestly the system caught a nice trade from Nov 6th
until Feb 1th, and just went back long, basically getting back in
barely over where it got out. To me this is a 5th wave that will
end with MACD divergence
I honestly wouldn't follow things like Bonds, best to follow
things that trend well, bonds tend to be very choppy and do not
trend well, which the system is designed for catching trends
that said I have some smaller time frames high performance that
work well for bonds such as 78 min, but I wouldn't follow the
standard default daily for bonds
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HYG - interesting spot for
Posted by DigiNomad on 7th of Mar 2024 at 05:44 pm
HYG - interesting spot for the systems to go long. Is that correct? Seems like a high flag consolidation, which suggests it will likely break higher, but I can't find a timeframe where it triggered yet. Can you give us any insight into the factors that caused the trigger today?
High Yield is ~95% of
Posted by jhbernstein on 8th of Mar 2024 at 07:21 am
High Yield is ~95% of my business so I watch it very closely. When it trends, it trends very well (11/1/23 - 12/31/23) but when it doesn't, it's better to fade the range (all of 2024). One important factor to look at is option adjusted spreads. The best HY trend following trades happen as OAS compresses which shouldn't happen if the economy weakens. (and I think your take on the economy is correct) Take a look at this chart of HY OAS. I see very little room for spreads to compress and a lot of room for them to blow out.
on HYG? honestly the system
Posted by matt on 7th of Mar 2024 at 05:51 pm
on HYG? honestly the system caught a nice trade from Nov 6th until Feb 1th, and just went back long, basically getting back in barely over where it got out. To me this is a 5th wave that will end with MACD divergence
I honestly wouldn't follow things like Bonds, best to follow things that trend well, bonds tend to be very choppy and do not trend well, which the system is designed for catching trends
that said I have some smaller time frames high performance that work well for bonds such as 78 min, but I wouldn't follow the standard default daily for bonds