Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 08:33 pm
SPX - price 7% above the 20 weekly EMA is pretty rare. It has
happened before but it's a laundry list of right before the fall
scenarios. Strangely, I pulled up a weekly chart and just started
measure the % difference between price and the 20 EMA at various
peaks and they are mostly between 6 and 8%. All bets are off
on the downside though. Big gaps between price and the 20 weekly
EMA are common when taking the elevator down. I'm looking at one
right now in August 2011 where price spiked to over 17% below the
20. Yikes.
The largest gap above the weekly 20 I could find was 9.4% in
March 2000...but I'm searching manually so there are probably
others.
For the
monthly20 EMA, the market tends to reverse between
12% & 16% above. The gap to the 20 in July 1998 was 19.8%.
We're currently at 13%. Definitely in the danger range (if you're
long) but also room to advance if it wants to challenge
records.
Wrote a simple script to plot the weekly away from 20 EMA and
plotted. It does not look like its uncommon to be above 5%. The
plot shows all the way to 1977.
Posted by DigiNomad on 4th of Feb 2024 at 08:42 pm
Love it, thanks! But to fit what I wrote up you have to remove
all the downside occurrences (they are way larger, in general) and
place the "extreme" level at 7%. Would be very interested to
see the output, if it's not a difficult edit.
the image I generated from AI - I instructed it, make me an
image showing an unhappy client during a bear market decline while
his investment advisor gives him the typical BS of stay the
course
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SPX - price 7% above
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 08:33 pm
SPX - price 7% above the 20 weekly EMA is pretty rare. It has happened before but it's a laundry list of right before the fall scenarios. Strangely, I pulled up a weekly chart and just started measure the % difference between price and the 20 EMA at various peaks and they are mostly between 6 and 8%. All bets are off on the downside though. Big gaps between price and the 20 weekly EMA are common when taking the elevator down. I'm looking at one right now in August 2011 where price spiked to over 17% below the 20. Yikes.
The largest gap above the weekly 20 I could find was 9.4% in March 2000...but I'm searching manually so there are probably others.
For the monthly20 EMA, the market tends to reverse between 12% & 16% above. The gap to the 20 in July 1998 was 19.8%. We're currently at 13%. Definitely in the danger range (if you're long) but also room to advance if it wants to challenge records.
Wrote a simple script to
Posted by vsunil on 3rd of Feb 2024 at 06:13 pm
Wrote a simple script to plot the weekly away from 20 EMA and plotted. It does not look like its uncommon to be above 5%. The plot shows all the way to 1977.
Love it, thanks! But to
Posted by DigiNomad on 4th of Feb 2024 at 08:42 pm
Love it, thanks! But to fit what I wrote up you have to remove all the downside occurrences (they are way larger, in general) and place the "extreme" level at 7%. Would be very interested to see the output, if it's not a difficult edit.
the image I generated from
Posted by matt on 4th of Feb 2024 at 08:48 pm
the image I generated from AI - I instructed it, make me an image showing an unhappy client during a bear market decline while his investment advisor gives him the typical BS of stay the course