Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 04:44 pm
Interesting numbers, but all these sets share a common theme
when compared to today's data - there has NEVER been money
printing at the level seen today (nominal or relative). It
isdifferent this time...even though the
below could still play out.
Here is the accompanying text:
Random: What happens after the S&P 500 gains 20% or more
over the trailing 14 weeks & closes at a new all-time high?
Well, N=7 but it's never closed higher 4 weeks later so maybe the
bears are pounding their chest over a -3-5% pullback on March
1st.
Digi - another factor (not discussed much) are foreign flows in
US Assets. Just look at the difference between the Chinese
and US exchanges since Covid with Shanghai index trading back near
the Covid lows while the SPX has made new all-time highs.
Clearly big money has relocated to other regions which have
filtered into the US markets along the way.
Tnx for the stats! Something else that may be unprecedented is
the level of passive/index investing. Regular 401k
deductions, FIRE, pensions, etc., buy and don’t open their monthly
statements, creating a slow-drip bid and a lack of sellers. Burry
and others have been outlining the bubble potential, but it’s less
clear what, if anything, could deflate it (it’s like wondering
where the money printing will end).
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Interesting numbers, but all these
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 04:44 pm
Interesting numbers, but all these sets share a common theme when compared to today's data - there has NEVER been money printing at the level seen today (nominal or relative). It isdifferent this time...even though the below could still play out.
Here is the accompanying text:
Random: What happens after the S&P 500 gains 20% or more over the trailing 14 weeks & closes at a new all-time high? Well, N=7 but it's never closed higher 4 weeks later so maybe the bears are pounding their chest over a -3-5% pullback on March 1st.
Digi - another factor (not
Posted by steve on 3rd of Feb 2024 at 01:26 pm
Digi - another factor (not discussed much) are foreign flows in US Assets. Just look at the difference between the Chinese and US exchanges since Covid with Shanghai index trading back near the Covid lows while the SPX has made new all-time highs. Clearly big money has relocated to other regions which have filtered into the US markets along the way.
Tnx for the stats! Something
Posted by mschwand on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 05:22 pm
Tnx for the stats! Something else that may be unprecedented is the level of passive/index investing. Regular 401k deductions, FIRE, pensions, etc., buy and don’t open their monthly statements, creating a slow-drip bid and a lack of sellers. Burry and others have been outlining the bubble potential, but it’s less clear what, if anything, could deflate it (it’s like wondering where the money printing will end).