Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Feb 2024 at 11:39 am
TNX - down 3.1% and DXY only down .3%. Gold very strong.
Crashing bond yield is a big warning sign. Normally, USD
would be much lower with yields crashing, but there appears to be a
fear trade on for the moment and the dollar is a traditional safe
haven.
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Feb 2024 at 01:45 pm
Correction: Copper didn't put in a lower high today, but it did
break symmetry (200 points in this pullback compared to 129 in the
largest prior)
Banks need the curve to normalize and it's going the wrong
direction. You would think lower yields would help the regionals
with CRE loan maturity walls coming up, but the overall lending
business needs a normal curve, preferably with higher rates (higher
rates = stronger economy).
Copper put in a what looks like a higher low today. I
was kind of expecting it to break higher, but yields crashing was
the canary in the coal mine...the bond market and Dr. Copper
aren't betting on economic strength in the medium term. Lower
high on copper increases the probabilities of lower high on indexes
(just probabilities though - it could go either way with all this
debt, deficits, and crazy derivatives action driving the whole
thing from the shadows). Puts sold short are at a 10 year high, so
that could be the next run.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
TNX - down 3.1% and
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Feb 2024 at 11:39 am
TNX - down 3.1% and DXY only down .3%. Gold very strong. Crashing bond yield is a big warning sign. Normally, USD would be much lower with yields crashing, but there appears to be a fear trade on for the moment and the dollar is a traditional safe haven.
Recession fear is on with
Posted by laouuu on 1st of Feb 2024 at 01:18 pm
Recession fear is on with the bank sell off.
Bank Sell off is probably
Posted by mla127 on 1st of Feb 2024 at 01:34 pm
Bank Sell off is probably the NYCB's ripple effect ... especially on the regional ones ... the KRE's move was wild today ...
Correction: Copper didn't put in
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Feb 2024 at 01:45 pm
Correction: Copper didn't put in a lower high today, but it did break symmetry (200 points in this pullback compared to 129 in the largest prior)
Banks need the curve to normalize and it's going the wrong direction. You would think lower yields would help the regionals with CRE loan maturity walls coming up, but the overall lending business needs a normal curve, preferably with higher rates (higher rates = stronger economy).
Copper put in a what looks like a higher low today. I was kind of expecting it to break higher, but yields crashing was the canary in the coal mine...the bond market and Dr. Copper aren't betting on economic strength in the medium term. Lower high on copper increases the probabilities of lower high on indexes (just probabilities though - it could go either way with all this debt, deficits, and crazy derivatives action driving the whole thing from the shadows). Puts sold short are at a 10 year high, so that could be the next run.