funny, on the 78 min high performance URA, the system had two
losing trades back to back, I was thinking now that we got those
out of the way, the next one will likely be a winning, and BOOM so
far it is, it went long on Wednesday at 9:48 am . Good example of
KISS systems, unlike the mean reversion systems that have 80% to
95% winning trades, the KISS systems have 60% winning trades at
best or sometimes less, so you expect to see 1 or 2 losing trades,
but if you see a couple of them in a row, odds favor the next
one or two being winners. One way to approach that would be to
increase position size on that next trade when it comes, so if you
were placing $10K into each trade, if you had 2 losers in a row,
maybe increase that next one to $15K as odds now start to favor a
winner
here's those stats on URA, note I haven't updated these in a
couple months
Posted by skwan1940 on 12th of Jan 2024 at 10:23 am
I like the KISS systems because they are trend following and not
mean reversion so they are easily to handle psychologically;
meaning that I would rather let the big boys (and girls) on Wall
Street step up to buy first vs being the first one to catch the
falling knife.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
URA KISS high performance
Posted by matt on 12th of Jan 2024 at 10:19 am
funny, on the 78 min high performance URA, the system had two losing trades back to back, I was thinking now that we got those out of the way, the next one will likely be a winning, and BOOM so far it is, it went long on Wednesday at 9:48 am . Good example of KISS systems, unlike the mean reversion systems that have 80% to 95% winning trades, the KISS systems have 60% winning trades at best or sometimes less, so you expect to see 1 or 2 losing trades, but if you see a couple of them in a row, odds favor the next one or two being winners. One way to approach that would be to increase position size on that next trade when it comes, so if you were placing $10K into each trade, if you had 2 losers in a row, maybe increase that next one to $15K as odds now start to favor a winner
here's those stats on URA, note I haven't updated these in a couple months
I like the KISS systems
Posted by skwan1940 on 12th of Jan 2024 at 10:23 am
I like the KISS systems because they are trend following and not mean reversion so they are easily to handle psychologically; meaning that I would rather let the big boys (and girls) on Wall Street step up to buy first vs being the first one to catch the falling knife.