Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Oct 2023 at 01:48 pm
Haha. Good point? The comps will be a welcome relief for
first time buyers. For those moving from one home to another, you
buy into the market you sell into...so it's usually a
wash.
Posted by lewiscook on 12th of Oct 2023 at 02:02 pm
With the part of your explanation, "for those moving from one
home to another, you buy into the market you sell into," how would
it hurt any seller? Are you speaking merely of the comps
generated by events such as death, divorce, etc where people
liquidate below market prices to get out quickly?
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Oct 2023 at 02:28 pm
You're right, it doesn't really hurt the seller if they are
moving into a similar home....except for the higher interest rate
on the new mortgage, but that hurts either way (people that can't
hold on for one reason or another are going to end up trading down
instead of trading up). If you're approaching or in
retirement and looking to downsize and use some of the equity
accumulated in the current, larger house to fund your retirement,
you could be in for a sad surprise when the much smaller house
costs more on a monthly basis (PITI) than the old larger house.
Thanks for question - good practice for traditional CFP
skills...I get rusty because I focus almost exclusively on
portfolio management.
well as far as mortgage and interest rates, I will say that once
this 5th wave low ends (maybe it hit the low, or maybe it extends),
but once the 5th wave is compete, I'd expect a 1 to 1.5 year ABC
bounce in Bonds, and corresponding drop in rates. That will maybe
take some pressure off mortgages.
again rates are in a secular bull market now, bonds are in a
secular bear, but it won't just move in one direction the whole
time
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The comps won't be pretty
Brutal 30 year bond auction - highest yield at auction ...
Posted by lewiscook on 12th of Oct 2023 at 01:42 pm
The comps won't be pretty for who?? buyers or sellers
Haha. Good point? The comps
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Oct 2023 at 01:48 pm
Haha. Good point? The comps will be a welcome relief for first time buyers. For those moving from one home to another, you buy into the market you sell into...so it's usually a wash.
With the part of your
Posted by lewiscook on 12th of Oct 2023 at 02:02 pm
With the part of your explanation, "for those moving from one home to another, you buy into the market you sell into," how would it hurt any seller? Are you speaking merely of the comps generated by events such as death, divorce, etc where people liquidate below market prices to get out quickly?
You're right, it doesn't really
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Oct 2023 at 02:28 pm
You're right, it doesn't really hurt the seller if they are moving into a similar home....except for the higher interest rate on the new mortgage, but that hurts either way (people that can't hold on for one reason or another are going to end up trading down instead of trading up). If you're approaching or in retirement and looking to downsize and use some of the equity accumulated in the current, larger house to fund your retirement, you could be in for a sad surprise when the much smaller house costs more on a monthly basis (PITI) than the old larger house. Thanks for question - good practice for traditional CFP skills...I get rusty because I focus almost exclusively on portfolio management.
well as far as mortgage
Posted by matt on 12th of Oct 2023 at 02:33 pm
well as far as mortgage and interest rates, I will say that once this 5th wave low ends (maybe it hit the low, or maybe it extends), but once the 5th wave is compete, I'd expect a 1 to 1.5 year ABC bounce in Bonds, and corresponding drop in rates. That will maybe take some pressure off mortgages.
again rates are in a secular bull market now, bonds are in a secular bear, but it won't just move in one direction the whole time