Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Sep 2023 at 02:50 am
Chat GPT came up with basically the same answer I was thinking
for this question, but I was still amazed at how quickly it
produced the answer. FA's everywhere crossing their fingers and
hoping people don't get too familiar and comfortable asking LLM's
questions! The only flaw I could spot in Chat GPT's logic is that
it didn't put together that the loss was unrealized. If it was
realized, then the question to roll or not to roll would be a moot
point. Still impressive.
Question: I have a 2 year treasury note with a 4.375% yield
payable semi annually. The current yield on the same duration note
is 5%. I have a .9% loss on my current note. Should I roll to a new
2 year note at the higher yield or hold on to current one until
maturity?
Answer: To determine whether you should roll your current 2-year
Treasury note into a new 2-year note with a higher yield or hold
onto your current one until maturity, you should consider a few
factors:
Current Yield vs. Yield at Purchase:
Your current note has a yield of 4.375%, while the new 2-year
note offers a yield of 5%. This suggests that the new note would
provide a higher return if held to maturity.
The .9% Loss:
You mentioned that you have a 0.9% loss on your current note.
It's important to clarify whether this loss is realized or
unrealized. If it's an unrealized loss (meaning you haven't sold
the note yet), you might want to consider if you are comfortable
holding the note until maturity or if you expect the loss to widen
further.
Time to Maturity:
Consider how much time is left until your current note matures.
If it's close to maturity, you might decide to hold onto it,
especially if the loss isn't significant and you believe that
interest rates won't rise dramatically in the short term.
Future Interest Rate Expectations:
Evaluate your expectations for future interest rates. If you
believe that interest rates will continue to rise, locking in a
higher yield with the new note may be more attractive. However, if
you expect interest rates to stabilize or even decrease, holding
onto your current note may make more sense.
Liquidity Needs:
Consider whether you have any immediate liquidity needs. If you
need access to the invested funds in the near future, you might
prioritize that over maximizing yield.
Ultimately, the decision to roll over your current note or hold
it until maturity depends on your individual financial goals, risk
tolerance, and market expectations. You may want to consult with a
financial advisor who can provide personalized advice based on your
specific situation and objectives.
Re 2 Yr note question: The 3 month Treas.= 5.56%. Hold until
maturity, take your YTM, role principle into another 3 month of
higher interest. Repeat. Works well.
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Chat GPT came up with
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Sep 2023 at 02:50 am
Chat GPT came up with basically the same answer I was thinking for this question, but I was still amazed at how quickly it produced the answer. FA's everywhere crossing their fingers and hoping people don't get too familiar and comfortable asking LLM's questions! The only flaw I could spot in Chat GPT's logic is that it didn't put together that the loss was unrealized. If it was realized, then the question to roll or not to roll would be a moot point. Still impressive.
Question: I have a 2 year treasury note with a 4.375% yield payable semi annually. The current yield on the same duration note is 5%. I have a .9% loss on my current note. Should I roll to a new 2 year note at the higher yield or hold on to current one until maturity?
Answer: To determine whether you should roll your current 2-year Treasury note into a new 2-year note with a higher yield or hold onto your current one until maturity, you should consider a few factors:
Current Yield vs. Yield at Purchase:
The .9% Loss:
Time to Maturity:
Future Interest Rate Expectations:
Liquidity Needs:
Ultimately, the decision to roll over your current note or hold it until maturity depends on your individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and market expectations. You may want to consult with a financial advisor who can provide personalized advice based on your specific situation and objectives.
Re 2 Yr note question:
Posted by brophy on 29th of Sep 2023 at 08:30 am
Re 2 Yr note question: The 3 month Treas.= 5.56%. Hold until maturity, take your YTM, role principle into another 3 month of higher interest. Repeat. Works well.