Seasonality / Macro - this fall is shaping up to  potentially be a doozy. Rates soaring globally, economies slipping into recession.....and global debt in a place where calls for austerity almost have to be heeded.  Everyone seems to agree Gov shutdown is inevitable in October...which will likely achieve a few concessions on spending. Austerity into a recession is the opposite of the playbook, but the fiscal management has been so bad worldwide that it doesn't leave them much choice.  The market is addicted to stimulus - we have all seen that play out as it climbed straight up with the economy essentially shut down for months in 2021.  It will eventually throw a big fit if a combo of Powell and Congress makes it clear that further sugar water is not in the cards.

I'm usually early on this type of analysis - it's very possible this plays out in 24 instead of 23....but this fall seems like it has a lot of potential triggers.