Posted by icecoldjones on 17th of Jul 2023 at 03:39 pm
They'll all beat expectations. Every bank has a portfolio of 2%
mortgages and are giving out >4% in HYSAs and yet they keep
making record earnings. No clue how that works!
Posted by DigiNomad on 17th of Jul 2023 at 03:41 pm
Extremely low bar. Look how much they lowered expectations
coming into the quarter..big downward revisions...which is allowing
beats across the board (UPOD - Under Promise, Over Deliver)
Posted by DigiNomad on 17th of Jul 2023 at 04:08 pm
Haha. Yeah, I expect it will never stop. I'm starting to feel
like the big guys learned some valuable lessons from the meme stock
frenzy (gamma squeezes galore). If they team up on larger
securities (e.g. SPX), they can push it higher and everyone wins.
In terms of banks, they are one of the few groups trading at
a reasonable multiple, given the risks they are facing with
commercial RE and upside down loan structures. KRE might have
bounced today, but it looks like it's going to break support sooner
or later. I have a client that is a bank executive recruiter.
He says his clients are mostly petrified.
We probably need some regulation around 0 DTE options and
maybe something that reduces the ability to get these gamma
squeezes almost on demand...even on the indexes. It's setting
us up for a catastrophe at some point as we get farther and farther
from reasonable valuation support. The amount of notional
value built into these trades is madness. But...I'm not
holding my breath. It's a goldmine for the industry and they are
signaling more options products, not less or more
restrictive.
Tomorrow some other financials reporting
Posted by steve on 17th of Jul 2023 at 03:32 pm
Tomorrow some other financials reporting are PNC SCHW BAC MS
Follow Up on Financials
Posted by steve on 18th of Jul 2023 at 08:52 am
MS and SCHW are trading slightly higher while BAC down slightly and PNC down over 3 percent after reporting as of now
BAC and SCHW moving higher
Posted by steve on 18th of Jul 2023 at 09:22 am
BAC and SCHW moving higher now
SCHW +11 percent on that
Posted by steve on 18th of Jul 2023 at 09:33 am
SCHW +11 percent on that pop
They'll all beat expectations. Every
Posted by icecoldjones on 17th of Jul 2023 at 03:39 pm
They'll all beat expectations. Every bank has a portfolio of 2% mortgages and are giving out >4% in HYSAs and yet they keep making record earnings. No clue how that works!
Extremely low bar. Look how
Posted by DigiNomad on 17th of Jul 2023 at 03:41 pm
Extremely low bar. Look how much they lowered expectations coming into the quarter..big downward revisions...which is allowing beats across the board (UPOD - Under Promise, Over Deliver)
Good point digi, but when
Posted by icecoldjones on 17th of Jul 2023 at 03:57 pm
Good point digi, but when do people wake up and realize they're sandbagging the expectations? I don't think it'll ever stop.
Haha. Yeah, I expect it
Posted by DigiNomad on 17th of Jul 2023 at 04:08 pm
Haha. Yeah, I expect it will never stop. I'm starting to feel like the big guys learned some valuable lessons from the meme stock frenzy (gamma squeezes galore). If they team up on larger securities (e.g. SPX), they can push it higher and everyone wins. In terms of banks, they are one of the few groups trading at a reasonable multiple, given the risks they are facing with commercial RE and upside down loan structures. KRE might have bounced today, but it looks like it's going to break support sooner or later. I have a client that is a bank executive recruiter. He says his clients are mostly petrified.
We probably need some regulation around 0 DTE options and maybe something that reduces the ability to get these gamma squeezes almost on demand...even on the indexes. It's setting us up for a catastrophe at some point as we get farther and farther from reasonable valuation support. The amount of notional value built into these trades is madness. But...I'm not holding my breath. It's a goldmine for the industry and they are signaling more options products, not less or more restrictive.
Good insights Digi, thanks! I
Posted by icecoldjones on 17th of Jul 2023 at 04:53 pm
Good insights Digi, thanks! I wish I could cash in on the goldmine but I am the one still holding my breath for all of this to implode...