I primarily follow the mean-reversion systems. Was a
former on-floor options market maker so i'm used the getting
positions rammed down my throat.
But in all seriousness, I've always found it difficult to
trade when there is sub-system, multi-system conflict. And
believe it or not, it seems to happen a lot. I thought we'd
get a pullback to buy with the longer-term trend. Breakout system
are long but the volatility systems were getting short.
For me, that probably means buy straddles and gamma scalp
rather than taking a directional bias. Anyway ....
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jun 2023 at 01:30 pm
If the market rallies into Wednesday, it's going to put JP in a
similar position to last August where he came out with a short,
forceful speech where he basically said "Simmer down people. I
don't know what you think I said, but your were mistaken. THERE
WILL BE PAIN". After all, asset prices = equites,
commodities, etc...and that's the major worry right now. Energy
getting crushed, which helps, but rally into Wednesday or even into
the close tomorrow and the committee is probably going to feel like
asset prices might get away if they don't deliver a hawkish
message. On the positive side, we've already had a stealth
housing crash in real terms (probably 15% down this last year
alone)...so maybe the Fed won't be looking to get the correction
they essentially promised...at least not in nominal
terms.
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I'm obviously just a short
It's like Groundhog Day - no volatility, no action; just ...
Posted by pep8261 on 12th of Jun 2023 at 12:58 pm
I'm obviously just a short who's venting.
I primarily follow the mean-reversion systems. Was a former on-floor options market maker so i'm used the getting positions rammed down my throat.
But in all seriousness, I've always found it difficult to trade when there is sub-system, multi-system conflict. And believe it or not, it seems to happen a lot. I thought we'd get a pullback to buy with the longer-term trend. Breakout system are long but the volatility systems were getting short. For me, that probably means buy straddles and gamma scalp rather than taking a directional bias. Anyway ....
If the market rallies into
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jun 2023 at 01:30 pm
If the market rallies into Wednesday, it's going to put JP in a similar position to last August where he came out with a short, forceful speech where he basically said "Simmer down people. I don't know what you think I said, but your were mistaken. THERE WILL BE PAIN". After all, asset prices = equites, commodities, etc...and that's the major worry right now. Energy getting crushed, which helps, but rally into Wednesday or even into the close tomorrow and the committee is probably going to feel like asset prices might get away if they don't deliver a hawkish message. On the positive side, we've already had a stealth housing crash in real terms (probably 15% down this last year alone)...so maybe the Fed won't be looking to get the correction they essentially promised...at least not in nominal terms.